Betting Strategy / Wayne Bailey / 18 December 2007 / 3 Comments

Wayne Bailey analyses what makes the Wilstshire trainer so prolific at this time of year...

Based at Barbury Castle; Wiltshire, Alan King has built up a top class stable since 2000, which rarely sees a day go by without a winner. While officially a dual-purpose yard, his National Hunt horses have been outstanding, and King boasts Voy Por Ustedes, My Way de Solzen, and Katchit among his winners. With so many horses in training however, it's difficult to know which to back, and when. So let's cut the wheat from the chaff...

Time of the year
King eases his horses into each season, and saves the fireworks for December and January. Year-on-year, his horses produce plenty of wins, and plenty of profit for these months. December 2007 is proving to be no exception with thirty winners so far. Simply backing every King trained horse in December and January since the turn of the century has shown a mind-blowing profit of £20,000 to £100 stakes. That's a hell of a lot of festive cheer!

Best/worst courses
Bath, Goodwood and Ludlow have been unkind to King, where collectively, he has only had five winners from 117 bets (4.3%) since 2000. With such a poor record at these tracks, it's best to steer clear, or indeed lay his horses when running here. At Hereford and Huntingdon however it's a different story. His horses were first past the post 59 times out of 250 races (24%), and provided a return of 136% for the backer.

Races
Alan King is well known for his success in novice races, but focusing on novice handicap chases in particular can be very lucrative. You won't get a bet every day - he only has around 20-25 qualifiers per season... but good things come to those who wait, and backing King's horses in novice handicap chases has shown a 25% strike rate, and a profit of £5,450 to £100 stakes in the past seven years.

Jockey
Robert 'Choc' Thornton, who was leading jockey at the 2007 Cheltenham festival gets most of King's rides. The King/Thornton combination shows a healthy strike rate of 19% overall, but the leading jockey has shown particular skill in non-handicap novice hurdles with a 24% strike rate, and a return of 112% to the backer.

Two for the notebook
Blazing Bailey hasn't done a whole lot wrong to date and should this season go without injury, King will more than likely let him have another shot at the World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. His current price of [17.0] seems a tad high, and should shorten up closer to the festival.

Halcon Genelardais should return to action on December 27th at Chepstow for the Coral Welsh National. He prefers the longer distances, so the trip of 3m 5f will suit. Soft ground will be an added bonus. He's up 9lbs this time, but all going well, he has a very live chance of placing if not taking the race itself.

King's entries for December 18th and 19th:

Today:

12.30 Folk - Bormo
13:00 Folk - Red Flare
15.30 Folk - West End Rocker

Tomorrow:

12.25 Newb - Russian Invader
12:25 Newb - Aypeeyes
12:25 Newb - Summer of Love
12:25 Newb - Bormo
13:15 Bang - Kayf Diamond
13:15 Bang - Porters War
13.30 New - Group Captain
14.25 Bang - Knighton Lad
14.40 Newb - Kahrayn
14:40 Newb - Porters War
13.30 Bang - Nulato
13:30 Bang - Mad Jack Duncan
15.40 Newb - Call Me A Legend
15:40 Newb - Heartsanddiamonds

If you have a particular trainer who's record you would like analysed, post a comment and we'll provide the details.

Tags: Alan King