Betfair Official Blog

Which trainers can work the oracle with a failed horse?

Wayne Bailey digs up the stats for horses riding first time out under a different trainer

In the mid-90s, the buzzword in the racing world was 'value'.

Articles such as 'pricewise' and 'value-scope' began in the racing papers offered new approaches to form reading, and tried to spot horses that offered particularly high prices. They managed to catch the layers snoozing on many occasions.

Thinking outside the box can reap rewards, and one such approach is to spend some time checking for horses that are having their first run for a new trainer. Listed below, are some of the most successful yards with newcomers from other stables, but more importantly, the best time to back such horses:

P F Nicholls
Nicholls has shown an ability to manage, and get the best out of 'difficult' horses (Kadarann perhaps being the most notable example). It's no surprise therefore, that horses having their first run for Nicholls (that have came from other stables) are often open to great improvement, and show a 27 per cent strike rate.

Horses that fell/pulled up last time out are sure to put many punters off, and very often, huge prices are offered on the exchanges for such horses. A lot of punters will dismiss a horse immediately as soon as they see that it fell/pulled up in its last race, and won't even bother checking if the animal is now in a different yard (and thus, under a different training regime). This is where we can step in and find value in fallers/pulled up horses. The results of backing all horses, (2000-2007) having their first run for Nicholls that fell last time out are:

Bets: 24
Wins: 12
Strike Rate: 50 per cent
Return: 238.5 per cent
Profit to £100 stakes: £3,321

P J Hobbs
Phillip Hobbs is probably best known for training the late, great champion-hurdle winner Rooster Booster. That horse showed tremendous improvement when he arrived at Hobbs' Somerset yard, and became loved by punters everywhere. Hobbs, also a successful jockey in his time, has been training horses since the mid-80s, and horses having their first run for him (that came from other stables) show a 22 per cent strike rate. The booking of Richard Johnston can be seen as a huge plus. The results of backing all horses (2000-2007) that have came from another yard, are having their first run for Hobbs, and are rode by Johnston are:

Bets: 142
Wins: 38
Strike Rate: 26.8 per cent
Return: 175 per cent
Profit to £100 stakes: £10,651

N J Henderson
Nicky Henderson is also well known for his ability to successfully train 'difficult' horses. One such horse was See You Then, who went on to win the Champion Hurdle on three consecutive occasions. Horses arriving from another yard show a 26 per cent strike rate when having their first outing for Henderson. Horses that won last time out for their old trainer before coming to Henderson's yard seem to have lost their value and are over-bet by punters. However, the results of backing all horses (2000-2007) having their first run for Henderson, but were NOT first last time out are:

Bets: 90
Wins: 25
Strike Rate: 27.8 per cent
Return: 185.6 per cent
Profit to £100 stakes: £7,705

D E Pipe
Like his father before him (Martin), horses coming to David Pipe's yard from elsewhere perform well on their first run and show a 17.7 per cent strike rate. There is one type of race that he particularly excels in, and that is novice chases (non-handicap). David Pipe only started training full time in 2006, so the sample is relatively small, but very encouraging. The results of backing all horses (2006-2007) that came from another yard, and are having their first run for David Pipe in non-handicap novice chases are:

Bets: 16
Wins: 9
Strike Rate: 47.4 per cent
Return: 109.4 per cent
Profit to £100 stakes: £179

All of the above results are to SP, so the concept of value takes on an even greater meaning if you consider the higher prices available on the exchanges, especially on outsiders.
The downside is that time must be spent checking the horse's background, and making sure it meets certain criteria before having a bet. But spending a few minutes researching the horse's background is something that many punters don't want to bother doing - and that's where we step in and exploit that laziness.

Comments? Questions? Criticism? We welcome feedback of all kinds, so feel free to post your thoughts below...