Betting Strategy / David Stewart / 05 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Betfair customers are now able to bet into American Tote pools so if you're wondering how to play your Trifectas and Superfectas read on

"The magnitude of different bet types may seem overwhelming, but by focusing on those races where a punter has a strong opinion on one or two horses, astute plays can return rewarding dividends."

Variety and value can be had when betting directly into North American tote pools from the Betfair website.

American punters flock towards the so-called "exotic" pools, with total turnover at any major meeting typically allocated 25%-30% to win and place bets, while 70+% flows into the various multi-leg and multi-tiered exotic wagering pools.

On big days such as Breeders' Cup or Belmont Stakes, the pool sizes are massive and offer tremendous returns, particularly when a favourite is unplaced or beaten in one leg of a multi-leg bet.

The magnitude of different bet types may seem overwhelming, but by focusing on those races where a punter has a strong opinion on one or two horses, astute plays can return rewarding dividends.

Other than the conventional Win, Place and Show pools, American bet types may be divided into single race/multi-layered or multi-race, multi-leg wagers.

The Trifecta and Superfecta are the two most popular single race bet types in the USA. The objective is to correctly select in exact order the first three (Trifecta) or four (Superfecta) finishers. Both pools are offered on almost every race at most North American track (in some jurisdictions Superfecta wagering may be cancelled in races with small fields).

Trifecta wagering strategy: The secret to successful Trifecta betting is to focus on one or two key horses that should finish in the frame, using these as bankers in the first and second slots of this multi-layered bet. Trifecta betting is particularly lucrative when a player has a strong negative opinion about the favourite and believes this horse will be beaten, or better yet, unplaced.

A winning ticket may be built around the key horse(s), combined with two or three other runners (preferably ones starting at odds higher than [6.0]). With a minimum stake of $1 per perm line, a player may construct a complex Trifecta bet for between $24 and $36, depending upon field size and number of key horses.

For example, in a 10-runner race, the second (2) and third (3) favourites might be priced up at [4.0] and [4.5] respectively. The favourite (1) is [2.6], but vulnerable. The well-bred, lightly raced colt from a top stable is shortening in the win market, but remains the [9.0] fifth (5) favourite. You also fancy the chances of the likely lone pace setter, even though this runner is a [13.0] outsider (8).

Here's the Trifecta ticket:
2, 3 x 1,2,3,5,8 x 1,2,3,5,8, for a total stake of $24; if using the key horses (2 & 3) in the second slot, the bet stake doubles to $48, but offers a greater winning chance if either the 2 or 3 are beaten. Should the two key horses finish first and second, then the Trifecta is won twice!

Variations on the above method are to go deeper in the second and third tiers, or even use the "field" in the third slot. Each additional runner added to the perm will increase the stake accordingly, but should the favourite finish fourth or worse and a 50/1 outsider plod on for third place, the Trifecta dividend will swell dramatically.

Superfecta: Play this bet just like the Trifecta, only expect to stake twice or three-times as much. However, the dividends are massive, particularly on top-class, contentious races, which generate the biggest exotic pools. With four layers to the Superfecta, one must be a bit more judicious when selecting key horses and second/third tier plays, or the price of the bet will spiral dramatically. A cost effective technique is to key on one banker and use that horse in the first three slots. Play two or three additional runners in the same first three slots, using the "field" (or "all" in American tote parlance) in the fourth position.

Here's the Superfecta ticket (10-horse field):
A x B,C,D x B,C,D x "all"; A x B,C,D x all x B,C,D; B,C,D x A x B,C,D x all; B,C,D x B,C,D x A x all; a total bet of $144. With the suggested staking method, the key horse and two of the second tier runners need only finish in the frame to guarantee a winning play. The cost of the bet increases proportionally with size of the field and/or including more than three secondary selections.

The Superfecta (pool of $959,914) on the 2008 Breeders' Cup Turf returned a dividend of $5,622. If one fancied Euro-shippers Soldier of Fortune (4), Conduit (9) and Eagle Mountain (11) to make the frame; using the above staking plan (11 runners) the bet would be set up as follows: 4,9,11 x 4,9,11 x 4,9,11 x "all"; 4,9,11 x 4,9,11 x all x 4,9,11; 4,9,11 x all x 4,9,11 x 4,9,11; all x 4,9,11 x; 4,9,11 x4,9,11; which would cost $192, yielding a profit of $5,370.

Rolling Pick 3: The Pick "N" pools in the USA require the punter to correctly select winners in 3, 4 or 6 consecutive races. Pick 3 betting is offered on all but the last two races on every card and is the best value wager in American racing. Dividends almost always pay better than the equivalent treble combining the three winning tote SPs. When two or three favourites fail to win in any leg of a Rolling Pick 3 sequence, returns inflate to ever greater proportions.

The key to Pick 3 success is to focus only on potential winning horses...it's irrelevant if they are placed. Leave out those "sucker" horses that have finished in the frame 12 of 14 lifetime runs, but never seem to get their head in front where it matters. It also helps keep the stake manageable if a player has a strong opinion in one or more of the legs and can "single" that horse(s) as a banker.

A typical Pick 3 play might be: A x A,B,C,D x A,B,C for a cost of $12. One may "save" by playing back-up tickets that cover the banker with one or two possible upsetters.
With Rolling Pick 3s, a player may have as many as three separate pools in which to use the banker, further maximizing returns when that key horse is a winner. For example, if the banker runs in Race 5 on the card, Pick 3s may be constructed on Races 3-4-5; 4-5-6 and 5-6-7.

Pick 4: A Pick 4 pool is typically offered twice on a USA card; usually on Races 2 through 5 and then on four later races culminating with the feature event. On Saturdays and many big race days, some North American tracks guarantee a pool value of six figures.

Pick 4 returns will vary considerably depending upon the number of winning favourites in the sequence. Before getting seriously involved with this bet, it is wise to analyse each of the races in the Pick 4 to determine the likelihood of winning favourites. If two or more legs of the Pick 4 look to be won by strong favourites, then the value proposition of this wager decreases dramatically.

One may "buy" a leg of the bet by selecting the field, effectively turning the Pick 4 into a Pick 3. This is a useful strategy when a race is particularly difficult or one is convinced the favourite will be overturned in that leg, but cannot narrow down the field. As with the Pick 3, it helps to keep stakes manageable when a player uses a banker and/or two key runners in at least one leg of the Pick 4.

Pick 6: As with the Jackpot and Scoop6 in the UK, interest in the Pick 6 jumps dramatically after a multiple day rollover. At major meetings in the USA, pools quickly reach seven figures after a two-day rollover. Tracks in New York and California are the only ones that generate enough liquidity to host substantial Pick 6 pools. During Kentucky Derby weekend at Churchill Downs and at Breeders' Cup meetings, the Pick 6 typically generates pools well in excess of $1,000,000 per day. On big race days track management frequently guarantees the Pick 6 pool for $1 million.

Unless a punter fancies two or more bankers on a mid-week card, the Pick 6 is worth playing only on those days when a rollover has swelled the pool size.

The same wagering strategy applies as with Pick 3s and Pick 4s: a banker must be "singled" in two or more legs in order to keep stakes to a manageable level. The Pick 6 has a minimum stake of $2 per line at all USA tracks.

Tags: American Tote, Pick 4, Pick 6, Pool Betting, Rolling Pick 3, Superfecta, Tote Betting, Trifecta