Betting Strategy / Robin Keck / 04 August 2009 / Leave a comment

Fahey and Pipe leave our punter's stable but who's in?

"I'm now going to focus on the ex-mechanic Mr Paul Green. A relative newcomer to the training ranks having started in 2007 he has been consistently underestimated by the market. He has had his string in blistering form in the last couple of weeks with five winners from his last 10 entries."

Richard Fahey is a serial womanising dead bigamist. After I missed all 14 of his weddings I stupidly attended his metaphorical funeral this week (he is alive and well in case I've lost anyone). I ignored his stable's strong form all season believing the market would soon adjust and leave his runners poor value. As each week went by I groaned as I read of his ongoing double priced winners but my stubbornness gave way last week and I decided to roll the dice. Well 43 (!!) runners later and only three winners and I'm £80 down on his runners to my virtual £5 level stakes. In the words of Hugh Grant in that film about weddings and funerals "bugger, bugger, bugger, bugger, bugger". He's sacked and my eyes are peeled for his stable to go cold as they may become badly handicapped if his relentless success waivers in the autumn breeze.

That's the bad news over and I can now focus on the ex-mechanic Mr Paul Green. A relative newcomer to the training ranks having started in 2007 he has been consistently underestimated by the market. He has had his string in blistering form in the last couple of weeks with five winners from his last 10 entries. Invincible Force (Betfair SP [12.68]) and Sudden Impact (BSP [12.0]) were particularly notable as they were both very soft in the market but won comfortably.

I'm now wondering how long the market will swerve his runners. His three winners resulted in a net £115 profit for this column and I do not see his run stopping anytime soon. Invincible Force is likely to be very tempting next time up if given a sympathetic track to his front running style as his Chester victory came despite being harried for the lead throughout. STOP PRESS - I'm going 'double stakes' on his entries next week.

Let's tidy up the rest. Andrew Haynes and David Simcock both posted a relatively minor profit but the market is up to speed now and they're off the hot list.

David Pipe can join them as his hot spell may end soon and the market is more alert to his higher profile stable. Luca Cumani struck himself off the cold list with a winner at Goodwood but Stuart Williams' yard are totally off colour and something may be amiss there. I have great respect for him as a shrewd trainer and he'll be back, but for now he stays as a 'cold trainer to lay follow' (does that list exist in racing papers?).

Ruth Carr needs no introduction to serious punters but at the time of writing she's had five winners from her last six runners and I'll add her to the hot list.

Total Starting Bank = £250.00
Closing Bank after Week Nine = £242.32
Week Ten Result = +£57.50
Closing Bank = £ 299.82

Tags: Andrew Haynes, David Pipe, David Simcock, Invincible Force, Luca Cumani, Paul Green, Richard Fahey, Ruth Carr, Stuart Williams