Betting Strategy / Robin Keck / 08 September 2009 / Leave a comment

No matter how bad things get for Robin Keck he will always be able to hold on to one crumb of comfort. To find out what it is as well as who's hot, cold, in and out this week, read on...

"Stand up the Betfair punter who pressed the lay button at 14.5 at precisely 9.15pm and 24 seconds on Wednesday night - you have perhaps struck the worst value bet in Betfair's history!”

However bad my life gets: I could lose my job. My wife could leave me for a younger, funnier man that doesn't think farting is funny when someone pulls his index finger. My dog could respond more willingly to her lovers call (my wife's lover...not the dogs). My two daughters may start calling me by my first name and calling him daddy. I may discover that my parents adopted me. I may be reduced to listening to Abide with me (my favourite hymn) and 'Winner Takes it All' by ABBA.

If all that happens I will hold on to just one morsel of comfort to get me through the darkest days:-

I didn't lay Sea The Stars at [14.5].

I'm more than a little curious who did it and my only clue comes from Betfair's own Tony Calvin who commented: "Stand up the Betfair punter who pressed the lay button at 14.5 at precisely 9.15pm and 24 seconds on Wednesday night - you have perhaps struck the worst value bet in Betfair's history!" I suspect it wasn't a major client then!! I suspect the punter in question had a 'word' from the stable that the horse would definitely not run and felt it was free money. My heart doesn't bleed for them if that's the case.

After waxing lyrical last week about my preference for jumps racing I have to say my heart leapt when Sea The Stars won the Irish Champion Stakes. I watched the race on t'internet as I had work to do and greatly enjoyed listening to Alan Dudman and my co Betfair columnist Simon Rowlands on Timeform Radio. A more emotional Alan was nearly crying after the race while cold as ice Rowlands kept his feet on the ground before throwing away the ratings book and admitting the horse was a superstar. Perhaps they'll send the horse to Paul Nicholls.......

Let's get our feet back on the ground and recap on a poor week for this column. Debbie Mountain sacked herself from the cold list with a winner. I'm sacking Midgley, Millman and Stubbs for not producing the goods. Barr and Balding can stay after Sea Salt and Pipette respectively saved my bacon and Evan Williams can keep his place in the cooler.

Going forward, I'm promoting Simon Dow and Luca Cumani to the hot list. Luca isn't a natural stable choice for me as he has far too high a profile but I just can't ignore his form at the moment with his last four runners obliging. Clive Cox had an amazing start to the season and whilst I don't think there is anything amiss with his runners I sense they're being overbacked. Perhaps John Francombe mentions him too much on Channel 4 Racing although whether his continued references to 'Clive's runners' may mean too much to those outside the in-crowd I'm not sure.

Total Starting Bank = £250.00
Closing Bank after Week Fourteen = £310.22
Week Fifteen Result = -£67.00
Closing Bank = £ 243.22

Tags: Alan Dudman, Horseracing betting, Luca Cumani, Robin Keck, Simon Rowlands, Stable form, Timeform Radio, Tony Calvin