Betfair Official Blog

'tis the season to be merry ... and these stats might make it a little merrier

Click here to view market

Wayne Bailey looks at the stats for National Hunt horses making their seasonal re-appearances

I'm sure you're all aware that there's only five weeks left 'til Christmas.

Just in case we forgot the date Christmas falls on, our local supermarket kindly set up its decorations and merchandise in October. The sight of check-out girls wearing reindeer hats already reminds me of how crazy this time of the year has become recently. Mince pies before Halloween - it just aint right!

Yes folks, it's that time of the year again, the run up to Christmas, which can mean only one thing: it's time to get the wallet out and keep it out. The silly season is upon us, and many people spend more money in the run up to Christmas than all the other months combined.

Make sure you keep a few quid in you Betfair account however, as the run up to Christmas also signals the start of something else: National Hunt horses making their re-appearance.

It's always nice to see one of your favourite horses make its return to the track, but punters will often fall into the old trap of backing it on its return, hoping to recapture those magical moments from last season. A cold hard look at the statistics however, could quickly change your mind.

If you look at horses returning after a break of three months or more, one thing becomes very clear - certain trainers have a far higher strike rate with these horses than others. Some trainers have their horses fit and ready on their return, while others like to ease them in to the racing season gradually.

With this in mind, I delved into the form books from the past seven years an an attempt to provide myself with some festive cheer (and cash!) for the jumps season. I focused solely on horses that had not ran in three months or more, and in an attempt to filter out the no-hopers, my study only included horses that had at least one career win to date.

Again, the main statistic that was standing out was how good/bad certain trainer records are when it comes to re-appearing horses. Quite a number of trainers did reasonably well, but three in particular stood out:

Paul Nicholls
Nicholls has a decent record overall when his horses make a re-appearance, but particularly excels in novice chases.
Conclusion: Back Nicholls horses in novice chases that have won at least once in their career, and are returning to the track after three months or more. Such an approach provided 49 winners from 98 bets in the past seven years, which represents a 50 per cent strike rate and a profit of £2,011 to £100 stakes.

Nicky Henderson
Henderson is no stranger to jumps fans and trained plenty of high profile champions down through the years. Like Nicholls, Henderson also does well with re-appearing horses, particularly in smaller fields.
Conclusion: Back Henderson trained horses that have won at least once in their career, and are returning to the track after three months or more, in fields of 15 horses or less. Such an approach provided 105 winners from 372 bets in the past seven years, which represents a 28.2 per cent strike rate and a profit of £10,103 to £100 stakes.

Charles Egerton
Charles Egerton has fewer horses than the above big guns, but he still does well, especially in small fields.
Conclusion: Back Egerton-trained horses that have won at least once in their career, and are returning to the track after three months or more, in fields of 11 or fewer runners. Such an approach provided 19 winners from 51 bets in the past seven years, which represents a 37.3 per cent strike rate, and a profit of £4,304 to £100 stakes.

The one downside to following trainers is that they can have poor spells where nothing seems to win for a while. Following trainers can be a rewarding, but risky business. For those who don't like taking big risks, I found another price-based angle that should provide plenty of winners: Backing any horse priced 1.5 or less, who has had at least one career win to date and is returning to the track after three months or more provided 93 winners from 115 bets, which represents an 81.9 per cent strike rate, and a profit of £923 to £100 stakes.

As I type this, I notice some festive music is playing on the radio!
If the stats replicate themselves again this year, perhaps it will indeed, be the season to be jolly!

Comments/criticism? Feedback is always welcome, so feel free to post your thoughts!