Betting Strategy / Jack Houghton / 23 December 2009 / Leave a comment

Jack Houghton tells us how he will be splitting his Festive betting.betfair.com betting purse of £50 amongst best-watched TV programmes and horseracing.

"More likely, though, is that the only thing Kauto Star really “needed” at Haydock was for Imperial Commander to bugger off and leave him be. A promising horse in the making over the last two seasons, with some solid clock-performances in the bank, Haydock, in my eyes, was Imperial Commander’s passing-out parade, and I expect him to be challenging the division’s best this season."

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

* * *

Hollins' destruction of Whittle in the Strictly final threw the Betting Challenge a lifeline. True, we're still a little wounded, but not fatally so, and confidence is high that, come the New Year, we'll be firmly back in profit, and that I will be seen, rightfully, as the Renaissance Man of modern punting: comfortable dabbling in whatever event tickles my value-seeking fancy.

Readers of the column would have been disappointed at Ascot's abandonment last weekend. But rest easy. It may mean we'll have to wait a few more days to see Big Buck's bubble burst, but patience is the default position of any winning punter, and we will be no different. Anyhow, I have a scintillating portfolio of bets with which to stoke the fire of the Betting Challenge bank.

First up, heady deliberations around which show will top the Christmas viewing figures' list - found in Betfair's Christmas Specials section. Doctor Who is currently the prohibitively short favourite at around [1.45]. The show certainly has a solid following and will no doubt trouble the top-spot but, in recent years at least, it hasn't managed to come higher than second. The reason? Well, it's obvious really: Doctor Who is always aired at the kiddie-friendly time of 6pm - as it is this year - and the Christmas Day audience always peaks later than this.

The last four winners - Wallace and Grommit, Eastenders, Vicar of Dibley, and Eastenders again - were all aired between 8pm and 9pm. Thinking about my own Christmas routine it makes sense. Lunch is usually despatched by 5pm, then it's into the study for some speed ratings' analysis - creating tissue prices for the bumper Boxing Day pick-and-mix of racing. It's rare for the family to be finished with their spreadsheets much before 7.30pm, by which time Doctor Who will be long-finished.

Now I know it's dangerous to extrapolate such a small sample to the country as a whole, but it certainly must be true that at least 70 per cent of the population are engaged with form study of some sort until 7pm. If I'm right - and I think you'll agree the evidence is compelling - then Doctor Who will struggle to make top-billing this year. Eastenders - on during the golden-hour of 8-9pm - is worth a £10 bet at [4.0].

The day after, all that pre-Eastenders study will come to fruition. In the King George, punters are faced with a curious question: when Imperial Commander so nearly bested Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase, was it a one-off? Most people seem to be reading it that way: fuelled, no doubt, by jockey and trainer assertions that Kauto Star "needed it" at Haydock. The time of the race was exceptionally quick though, and, on the clock, I make the performance the joint-best of Kauto Star's glittering career. So if he did "need" the run, we can look forward to something extraordinary at Kempton.

More likely, though, is that the only thing Kauto Star really "needed" at Haydock was for Imperial Commander to bugger off and leave him be. A promising horse in the making over the last two seasons, with some solid clock-performances in the bank, Haydock, in my eyes, was Imperial Commander's passing-out parade, and I expect him to be challenging the division's best this season. For this reason, I'll be having £10 on him to Win and Place in the King George Betfair SP market.

In the Feltham, earlier on the Kempton card, Tchico Polos looks solid. His third at Sandown over two miles was exceptionally quick and, whilst always petrified to oppose Simon Rowlands - who has tipped up Long Run - my calculations make me hopeful 1.55pm Boxing Day will be Tchico Time. The Betting Challenge is having £20 at Betfair SP.

This week's bets:

£10 BACK Eastenders at [4.0] in Top Xmas Day TV Show - Winner market.
£10 BACK Imperial Commander at Betfair SP in King George Win market.
£10 BACK Imperial Commander at Betfair SP in King George Place market.
£20 BACK Tchico Polos at Betfair SP in Feltham Win market.

Tags: DR Who TV programme, Imperial Commander., Kauto Star, Top TV show