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Is Knight really jump racing royalty?

Wayne Bailey has gone through the statistics of one of jump racing's most enigmatic trainers...

Following a reader request, we break down the stats on Henrietta Knight in order to find out when to play, and when to lay...

The name H.C. Knight will forever have its place in racing history, due to the sensation that was Best Mate. Considered one of England's greatest horses, we Irish loved him in equal measure and teasingly claim his as one of our own, as he was born and spent his early days here. Bragging rights aside, everyone agrees that when the death of a horse makes front page headlines, he must have been something special.

Judging by her success, demeanour and determination, it's hard to believe that Knight and her husband, two former alcoholics only entered the training game when she was in her 40s. The former Oxford graduate however, had been involved in the point-to-point scene beforehand, which explains her love of, and success in, steeplechases. It's not all about the big days at Cheltenham however, and a breakdown of her record (2000-2007) has thrown up some interesting trends:

Overall
Since the turn of the century, Knight has had 294 winners from 2069 races, which constitutes a 14.2% strike rate, and an average loss of £2.50 for every £10 staked if blindly backed.

Courses
Like most trainers, Knight has her favourites. She's most successful at Hereford, with 21 winners from 100 races to date, which provided the backer with a return of 118%. Similarly, Exeter keeps the punters happy with 23 wins from 123 bets (18.7% strike rate) and a small but tidy return of 116% to level stakes.

On the lay side, it's surprising to note that her strike rate is actually low at Cheltenham (9.5%), a course she'll ever be associated with because of the festival success she's had.

Other courses that don't pay the bills are Ascot (7.5%), Newbury (5.8%), Uttoxoter (8.5%) and Warwick (7.3%). Laying all of her horses at these courses provided a profit of almost £1,700 to £10 stakes since 2000 (using Betfair prices).

Races
Hurdles: Henrietta is less successful with hurdlers and this may stem from her former association with the point-to-point chasing scene. Her record in handicap hurdles is particularly poor, with only nine wins from 117 races. Simply laying every one of her horses in hurdle races provided a profit of over £2,500 to £10 stakes, which proves that backers are still prepared to follow her yard without doing their research.

Chases: Knight's speciality. Blindly backing her horses in chases shows a slight profit to Betfair prices (a loss to official SP though), but she's particularly successful with horses that have had some time to recuperate since their last run (that is, horses that have had at least one month since their last race). Backing her horses in chases that have had a month or more off shows a profit of £1,670 to Betfair prices (£540 to official SP).

Prices
When checking out the prices of her horses, I stumbled upon an astounding record. Backing every Knight horse that is priced 1.5 or less, shows a 100% strike rate (20 wins from 20 bets) and a small profit of £6.53 to £10 stakes. It's certainly not a get rich quick scheme, but don't shy away if you see a short price on offer for one of her horses. There's no need to limit your bets to odds-on however, as backing any of her horses that were priced [2.8] or less showed 116 wins from 200 bets, and a profit of £420 to £10 stakes since 2000, again using Betfair prices.

Debut Horses
Many years ago, before she got her training licence, Henrietta was well known for breaking horses in for local trainers. It's no surprise then, that newcomers to her yard show considerable success first time out. While blindly backing her newcomers shows a level stakes profit over the years, the results vary drastically from year to year, so I wouldn't recommend getting heavily involved in such races.

Summary
• Back her horses at Hereford and Exeter
• Lay her horses at Cheltenham, Ascot, Newbury, Uttoxoter and Warwick
• Back her horses in chases when the horse hasn't raced in the past month
• Lay her horses in hurdles, especially handicaps
• Back her horses that are priced [2.8] or less, and feel extra confident if the price is [1.5] or lower

* If you would like a detailed analysis of your favourite trainer, simply post a comment and we can provide a breakdown. We welcome feedback both good and bad, so post your opinions!