Betting Strategy / Neil Munro / 25 March 2010 / Leave a comment

Neil Munro looks back on the in-running action from the Cheltenham Festival and selects three horses for in-play betting in jumps races to come

"After such a high profile Festival, some of Twiston Davies' horses may well go off under their true odds and if Pettifour goes off a layable price pre-race, I would get against him and then look to back him in-running at a likely higher price to cover my liability."

Was it only a week ago that we were enjoying the thrills and spills of Cheltenham 2010?

Those four amazing days produced so many wonderful stories but also so many questions. Did Dunguib lose the race or was it the ride his jockey gave him? Do you know a person who layed Binocular at [1000.0] in the ante-post market? Was it the ground that caused the poor run from Master Minded? Did the marketing men do a disservice to the other runners in the Gold Cup, including Imperial Commander, by concentrating on Kauto Star and Denman? For me the answers are Yes, no, no and yes.

As an in-running player, the story of this Cheltenham was the [2.0] factor. Of the 26 races, there were only 12 horses that traded odds-on having gone off with a Betfair starting price of odds-against. Seven horses traded at [2.0] in-running with many more trading slightly higher.

So why didn't more horses trade odds-on? Having watched the markets very closely for the four days, it was noticeable the amount of money that was put up as keep bets at [2.0] or just above, and thus it was taking a lot of backers money to get a horse trading under that price. From this, we should take that if you are looking to lay out on a horse in-running at a major festival you should go in at a higher mark than you would on an average race day.

Below you will find a few of the horses that I will be taking out of the Cheltenham Festival for in-running trading purposes.

The Package
David Pipe's 7yo was seen finishing fast in the William Hill Trophy, going down a head to Chief Dan George having been sent off the [5.5] favourite. This means his record at Cheltenham is now one win and three placed efforts from five attempts so we know he likes the place. And he has enjoyed being stepped up to three miles this season, staying on late in all his races so you can understand why connections are talking about going for the Grand National. From an in-running perspective The Package has a very interesting profile, having traded between [2.0] and [3.0] three times and odds-on six times in 14 defeats. In the main, this has happened because he comes late into the race looking the likely winner although he has been one-paced in a finish at times as well. I would be looking to take him on in-running if he does go to the National.

Pettifour
Nigel Twiston-Davies obviously had a great Cheltenham, in particular a memorable Friday, and in-fact it boiled down to a fantastic two hours. But earlier in the week NTD had put Pettifour in the four miler in the hope that the slower pace of the race would help his jumping, which hadn't been the best on previous performances despite picking up a three runner race at Cheltenham in November. But the plan didn't work, as he again made mistakes at his fences and was trading double his starting price after just four fences. After such a high profile Festival, some of Twiston Davies' horses may well go off under their true odds and if Pettifour goes off a layable price pre-race, I would get against him and then look to back him in-running at a likely higher price to cover my liability.

Khachaturian
In the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup, Khachaturian put up a fine front running performance before making a mistake two out to finish ten lengths fifth to his stable-mate Ballabriggs. Although the horse enjoys the front running tactics he does occasionally need a little shake up along the way and thus I will be looking for him next time out when Jason Maguire is back on board. The jockey/horse combination has a 25% winning strike rate over both hurdles and the bigger fences. Back him pre-race and lay out your stake in-running.

Tags: Cheltenham Festival, Khachaturian, Pettifour, The Package