Betting Strategy / Neil Munro / 24 February 2010 / Leave a comment

Tough and tenacious like his famous jockey, Open Day storms to another victory and looks promising for Cheltenham. Meanwhile, look out for a well-bred maiden and look to lay Bouggler. Neil Munro reports.

"Look out for Open Day in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. The stiff track should suit, his mark of 133 looks workable and the better ground will hold no fears."

This week has had its usual mix of 999/1 and 1.01's, otherwise known as highs and lows, but it was an unspectacular in-running trade that astounded me.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote about A P McCoy, who had just driven home a horse to win, that had traded at [1000.00] in-running, in a novice hurdle at Market Rasen. That horse was Open Day and the partnership was out again last Friday for a more competitive juvenile event at Sandown. Sent off a Betfair SP of [5.10], McCoy held the four-year-old up at the back of the field, travelling and jumping well. Would the layers push his price above the SP in-running?

Yes, in fact when commentator Mark Johnston said, 'Open Day is just being squeezed along by McCoy', he traded at [10.0]. But this horse is like his jockey, tough and tenacious, and he kept on finding up the Sandown hill to win by four lengths. Look out for Open Day in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. The stiff track should suit, his mark of 133 looks workable and the better ground will hold no fears. Just remember to try and back him in-running at bigger odds than his starting price before he makes a late charge under the McCoy drive.

Other horses to look out for in the next few weeks:

Pastello: Still a maiden after nine career starts she is not one of Richard Hannon's leading lights but she is nicely bred with the likelihood that seven to eight furlongs will be the optimum trip. Last time out at Wolverhampton over the extended mile I felt that Pastello would appreciate a firmer ride than Charles Eddery gave her. She travelled well but looked one paced in the final furlong, trading at [1.12] in defeat. Look out for Richard Hughes on board and back pre-race with an in-running odds-on lay offer, just in case she proves to be one paced in a finish once again. But only for your stake as she could well break her maiden tag.

Fuzzy Cat: Most punters know that David Barron does well at Southwell, so it is no surprise that Fuzzy Cat has a good record on the fibresand. But what is surprising is that this has come over 6f; on breeding you would have thought that 10 furlongs would be the trip. He has won two out of four starts over course and distance, and been placed the other two times trading short in the run. For his two wins he has traded at [14.0] and [15.0] in running so I would suggest the following play the next time he has his ideal conditions. Back half your stake pre-race, attempt to back the other half at double the starting price in-running, then lay out your stake at around one quarter the matched price.

Bouggler: Emma Lavelle was pleased with Bouggler's effort at the weekend when a three length third to Souffleur at Haydock in the competitive Rendlesham hurdle. Without wanting to over-play it, he was slightly unlucky when hampered on the run-in, trading at [1.70] but I am not confident he would have won. He does have a history of short trades in-running so wherever he appears next I will be putting up an in-running lay offer. From a backing point of view I would be looking for him on a flat track over a trip around 2m5f.

Lough Derg: You have to be careful in-running with the higher profile horses but I have to give a quick mention to an old front running favourite of mine in Lough Derg. His running style is so well known that he doesn't trade as short as he should at times, but he has a strong statistical profile. Since November 2007 his record between December and February, in a field size of nine or less, is five wins from nine starts. If he appears in the National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell on Sunday and the field size suits, back pre-race and lay off in-running.

Tags: Betting Strategy, Bouggler, Horseracing betting, Lough Derg, Neil Munro, Open Day