Betting Strategy / Neil Munro / 17 February 2010 / Leave a comment

Neil Munro reflects on the last week's racing and selects three horses who offer plenty of attractive options for in-running punters.

"Going off at around [4.0], Denman is likely to take the race on from the front, with only Carruthers likely to challenge for the lead, and thus he should make a good back-to-lay option."

In Running Week

When wheeling and dealing on in-running horses you tend to stay away from the better quality races because there are many more people players on the exchange with knowledge about running styles and quirky characteristics that horses may have.

But last Saturday I watched with interest the Aon Chase at Newbury, as we saw the debut partnership of Denman and AP McCoy. What happened has been well analysed, after Denman unseated McCoy at the third last, and questions have been asked as to whether these two are a partnership made in heaven.

Having gone off a very short price, 1.17 BSP, Denman traded at [1.03] in-running before making the mistake. So well done to both the pre--race and in-running layers but this has cemented my thinking for Gold Cup day. Looking at the make up of the race, Denman is likely to take the race on from the front, with only Carruthers likely to challenge for the lead, and thus he should be a good back-to-lay option with him now likely to go off around the [4.0] mark. You have to remember that Denman has now only won once in his last five starts since the well publicised heart problems and it could be worth trying to lay off more than your stake so you have the field winning for you on the day.

If you can find an angle about a racecourse it gives you an additional advantage when playing in-running and a couple have come to light in the last week. Newcastle is quite well known as a course where the television camera angle of the home straight is not very helpful to those in-running. Backers seem to fall into the trap that the horse nearest the rail is going the best and you get a large number of horses trading around evens, or below, in-running who go on to get beaten. I have been crunching the numbers over the last two meetings for all races, excluding ones where the favourite is already trading at evens or less, and if you put up in-running lay bets for the whole field at [2.0] and [1.60] you would have won £50 based on laying for a £10 winning stake.

On the all-weather Kempton's 5f trip has favoured natural front runners, with six winners in the last 10 races taking the race from the front. Interestingly, they haven't all been drawn high so at the moment it is as important to look for the main pace angle as it is to look for this draw bias.

In Running Future Plays

Autumn Blades: You have to be a cruel person to crab a horse that has won four times over the winter on the all-weather but I have to do that with Alan Bailey's five-year-old. I have tried to analyse this horse and the only term for his performances is erratic in a finish. At times he puts it all in, at other times he hangs as he is put under pressure and sometimes he is one paced in a finish. He has been raised 19lbs since November for those four wins, and his record over 7f and a mile on the all-weather is now six wins and 15 placed from 30 runs. The handicapper has had his say but he's a horse that I would put in a low in-running lay offer, whether I had backed him pre-race or not. He has eight odds-on turn-overs on his in-running CV, including a [1.01], as well as many more trades between [2.0] and [3.0] in defeat.

Tilt: Brian Ellison's eight-year-old perfectly fits the ability of punters to back and lay horses in-running. He was last seen out at Sedgefield when going off the 4/6 favourite in a novice hurdle contest. I use the term 'going off' in the loosest sense. He was reluctant to race and gave away 15 lengths to his opponents which meant Keith Mercer had to make lots of use of him to get him back in the running and this ended with him being pulled up. Those backers who cry foul should remember that Tilt has refused to race twice on the flat so the history was there. If you want to back him in the future make sure he has gone off with the field and back him in-running.

Tara Royal: This five-year-old is no world beater but he is likely to be a useful novice hurdler on the northern circuit. One word of warning: at the moment he doesn't find as much as you would expect as he travels very well into races from just off the pace. I know he has already picked up one novice event at Sedgefield but that was a weak contest. On his other two starts over hurdles, and on his only run in a bumper, he appeared to have the race in his pocket before being beaten. In those contests he traded at [1.93], [1.51] and [1.10] in the run.

Taqdeyr: An interesting horse, who was with Michael Jarvis when running in the UK, before joining bin Huzaim out in Dubai. He has run four times out there, with two runs on the dirt at Jebel Ali over a mile, then they ran him on Meydan's opening night over a mile again before he was last seen over six furlongs. For these last two runs connections have been keen to let him go from the front, which did bring about success when he was running in the UK, but has only led to him trading shorter in-running before being caught and out of the places. All his UK winning has come over the seven furlongs, for some a specialist trip. I would back him pre-race, next time he appears over that trip and then looking to lay off my stake in-running with the hope that he goes onto win.

Tags: Betting Strategy, Carruthers, Cheltenham 2010 betting, Denman, Horseracing betting, In-running betting, Kauto Star, Kempton Races, Neil Munro, Taqdeyr