Betfair Official Blog

How to lay low (otherwise known as 'doing a Biggs')

Wayne Bailey has scrutinised the formbooks to pull out the best times to lay the odds-on shot

If there's one man who knows all about laying low, it's Ronnie Biggs. The infamous criminal dodged the law for decades, and most of the £2.6 million heist from the great train robbery of 1963 has never been recovered. Biggs escaped from prison after serving just 15 months and settled in Brazil where Her Majesty's police and prison service were powerless to touch him.
Eventually, in 2001 he returned voluntarily to Britain to finish his sentence at the age of 72.

So how can you 'do a Biggs' - lay low and keep the money?!

For some, Betfair is all about getting the big prices. Indeed, the huge price differences between the exchange and the bookies is one of the main reasons the site attracts so much attention. That doesn't mean however, that we should shy away from the short priced horses (those trading at [1.9] or lower). While we all love getting the big-priced winner, the concept of value can exist at both ends of the market and that extends to laying as well as backing.

Most punters set themselves limits, and one of the more commonly used expressions in the gambling world is 'never back an odds-on horse'. I'm not such a big fan of such a steadfast rule, as my research shows that backing certain odds-on horses can actually turn a decent profit.

If you're one of those people who won't back odds-on horses, would you consider laying them? From speaking to punters over the years, I'd guess that the answer is no.

I'm not sure why certain people have such a fear of both backing and laying in the odds-on markets. If you believe that the blue side is bad for your balance, then surely the pink side is good right?

Yes and no.

The answer is not straightforward, and depends on the types of races you play in. Blindly laying every horse that is priced [1.9] or lower provided a profit for the layer of £5.50 for every £100 invested since Betfair was launched in 2000. While the return is probably as good as your high street bank will give, when you consider commission, it's doesn't exactly compare to the great train robbery does it?

Again it all comes down to the three Rs - research, research and research. In this case, separate research on National Hunt, flat turf and all-weather racing is what's required. Instead of painting all odds-on horses with the one brush, we must break down the myths and look at each code individually. My research shows that there is indeed, money made from laying low (horses priced 1.9 or lower).

Like most good ideas, it's a pretty simple one:

• Avoid the races that provide the best return for the odds-on backer
• Lay in the races that provide the worst return for the odds-on backer

Again, the most common mistake is not separating the three codes. Each must be treated as a separate entity by the serious layer, and given the respect it deserves.

National Hunt

Firstly, the races where odds-on horses have the highest win-rate should be clearly avoided for obvious reasons. Those races are: novice hurdles (61.4 per cent), novice handicap hurdles (61 per cent), selling hurdle (63.9 per cent) and novice chases (63 per cent). It's best to only get involved in races where the win-rate for odds-on horses is significantly lower. Those races are:

• Handicap hurdle (53.2 per cent)
• Novice handicap chase (48.6 per cent)
• Hunter chase (58.8 per cent)
• National Hunt flat (56.9 per cent)
• Handicap chase (53.2 per cent)

There was one very noticeable trend in the above races, and that was the fact that older odds-on horses performed much better. Therefore any horses aged eight or older should be avoided. This brings the overall win-rate to 52.4 per cent, and shows an average profit to the layer of £12.20 for every £100 invested. The average number of bets per year is 90.

Flat (turf)

Again, the idea here is to exclude the races that show the best win-rate for odds on horses. Those races are: claiming stakes (59.5 per cent), maidens (59.9 per cent) and selling handicaps (62.5 per cent). The races to lay in (when the horse is 1.9 or lower) are:

• Selling stakes (53.7 per cent)
• Amateur (50 per cent)
• Handicaps (53.9 per cent)
• Group (55.4 per cent)

Be careful not to mix up normal handicaps with selling handicaps, as the latter prove unprofitable for the layer. I found a very interesting statistic here - high summer is the least profitable for the layer. The best time of the year to lay odds-on flat horses is when the season is starting up and when it's winding down. I presume this is because the form is less consistent during those times, therefore, no bets are advised from June to September, both months inclusive. This approach shows an overall win-rate of 50.9 per cent for the backer, which translates into layer's profit of £12.70 for every £100 invested, and throws up around 25 bets per year.

All-Weather

When it comes to the artificial surfaces, the races where odds-on horses show the highest win-rate, and therefore should be avoided are: selling stakes (64.1 per cent), claiming stakes (62.7 per cent) and amateur races (77.8 per cent). Interestingly, there was only one type of odds-on race on the all-weather that truly stood out for the layer:

• Handicap races (51.9 per cent)

Don't tell the feminists, but it also pays to be sexist! I found it very interesting to find that female horses provided a much better monetary return to the backer than their male counterparts, so only male horses should be considered for laying purposes. This brings the overall win-rate to exactly 50 per cent, which translates into a very healthy layer's profit of £17.50 for every £100 invested. The average number of bets per year is 30.

So there you have it, the low-down on laying low. It won't provide instant success, but laying low certainly has its monetary advantages - just ask Ronnie Biggs!