World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 22 February 2008 / Leave a comment

[4.8] Aaron Baddeley 'worth chancing' to beat Tiger, while Byrd, Pampling and Stricker can all progress, says Paul Krishnamurty

After a good opening day for favourite backers, this event reverted to type with eight of Thursday's 15 matches going to the outsider. Chief among the upsets were defeats for Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott, but Tiger Woods offered his layers none of the hope he had the previous day against JB Holmes.

In my view the longer the tournament goes on, the harder it is to call these tight games. From now on, there are no more easy draws, no more out of form or disinterested opponents. Bearing this in mind, I'm being careful not to throw away all of the 42 points profit made from seven out of ten winners so far.

At just [2.4] now, Tiger casts a huge shadow over the market but there are still four matches to go, and four potentially tough opponents. The shortest priced player in the opposite half of the draw is Vijay Singh at [19.5], so there's still plenty of mileage in backing one of these eight players in the hope that somebody else knocks out Woods and turns the market upside down. And as I shall explain below, I've a sneaking feeling that Woods' next opponent could be the man to deliver such an upset.

4pts AARON BADDELEY TO BEAT TIGER WOODS @ [4.8]

Woods re-affirmed his aura of invincibility in round 2 with a comfortable 3 & 2 victory over Aaron Oberholser, following on from the blistering finish that wrecked Holmes' bid for the ultimate opening day upset. That dramatic match with Holmes though did confirm once again that Woods is potentially beatable in this format. Even the great man himself has the odd bad driving spell that can prove costly in a short match, and there's nothing he can do if his opponent's putter catches fire.

Baddeley may share the same first name as Woods' latest victim, but is fancied to present a much tougher obstacle.

Its often said that Woods' opponents lack the bottle to take him on and wilt under the pressure. Baddeley, however, is unlikely to struggle in this department. Though there may be more consistent players around, he has proven on a number of occasions that he has bottle in spades and loves the limelight.

The young Australian's self-confidence has been evident for all to see ever since he first hit the headlines as a teenage amateur, when impressively taking care of Norman and Monty in the Australian Open. In fact, rather than any lack of self-belief, if there's a criticism of Baddeley is that he's too confident in his own brilliance. His unbelievably quick putting routine still sends shudders through me every time I back him. He looks worth chancing at [4.8] to rise to the occasion.

6pts JONATHAN BYRD TO BEAT HENRIK STENSON @ [2.3]

Its impossible to dispute that Stenson deserves strong favouritism having won nine from ten World Matchplay starts. However, I can't help but think that as no player has yet proven able to master this event and its levelling format (even Woods), Stenson is bound to lose one soon. His unbeaten record at Dove Mountain was in severe jeopardy on numerous occasions yesterday but Immelman was unable to land the knockout blow, enabling Stenson to win with a birdie on the 25th hole.

That marathon match took a full two holes longer than both of Jonathan Byrd's matches combined. Byrd has done me proud over the first couple of days, delivering easy profits from two thumping wins over Ernie Els and Andres Romero. Though its fair to say neither offered much in the way of opposition, its impossible to argue with Byrd's score of -10 through just 23 completed holes. There's nothing to suggest he can't maintain that form, making [2.3] very reasonable odds from which to trade.

8pts ROD PAMPLING TO BEAT VIJAY SINGH @ [2.3]

Singh may have twice staved off an upset so far this week, but his golf is going to need to improve to have any future in the event. Having struggled to land the odds against Peter Hanson in the first round, Singh again laboured to a narrow victory against a below par Niclas Fasth. Vijay's score last night was just -1 for 18 holes, vastly inferior to the -6 recorded by Pampling for his victory over O'Hern. Clearly the Australian is in decent nick, having also thrashed Justin Rose on Wednesday.

The only caveat is that the market has already probably factored in the first couple of days' form. Had this been a first-round match, I suspect Pampling would have been available at bigger than [2.3]. Nevertheless, its hard to see Vijay thrashing anyone at the moment so in another close game, the outsider looks the bet.

8pts STEVE STRICKER TO BEAT ANGEL CABRERA @ [1.9]

Whoever emerged from Stricker's marathon game with Hunter Mahan was always going to be one of my selections today. Both played really well when the heat was on during a cracking match, before Stricker holed a brilliant long putt to birdie the 20th hole to progress.

With consecutive scores of -5, Stricker has re-enforced his reputation as a fine match player so far this week. Most memorably Stricker won the World Matchplay when it was held in Australia back in 2000, a period during which he was 'gone' at the game and could barely find a fairway with the driver. Despite that massive handicap forcing him to virtually abandon the driver mid-tournament, some tenacious matchplay carried him through for what was a shock result at the time.

His chance then was incomparable to today, as he starts this match the most likely finalist from his half of the draw. A further supporting factor is that Cabrera hasn't had to be at his best for either of his victories so far, shooting five more shots than Stricker over the first two days.

Tags: Aaron Baddeley, golf betting, Tiger Woods, WGC Matchplay