2026 US Open: Patrick Reed the sole Shinnecock selection at 50/1

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US Open tournament history

First staged back in 1895 and won by Englishman, Horace Rawlins, who picked up a whopping $150 after posting a 36-hole total of 173 (rounds of 91 and 82), the US Open has been a 72-hole stroke play event since 1898.

The US Open is a nomadic championship staged by the often heavily criticised United States Golf Association. It used to follow the US Masters as the second major of the year but after a reworking of the PGA Tour schedule in 2019, which saw the US PGA Championship moved from August to May, it's now the third of four.

This year we return to one of the oldest and more traditional US Open venues - Shinnecock Hills.

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Venue

Shinnecock Hills, Southampton, Long Island, New York.

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Course details

Par 70, 7,440 yards 

Shinnecock Hills opened way back in 1891 and just five years later it hosted the second edition of the US Open.

It was completely reworked by William Flynn in 1931, but it didn't see US Open action again until 1986. Flynn designed another famous US Open venue - Cherry Hills - and he also worked on Merion, where Justin Rose won his US Open title back in 2013.

Here are the five previous US Open winners at Shinnecock.

1896 James Foulis +3 (36 holes)
1986 Raymond Floyd -1
1995 Corey Pavin level Par
2004 Retief Goosen -4
2018 Brooks Koepka +1

After the 2004 edition (were only two players finished under-par), the design team of Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw lengthened the course by some 449 yards and the fairways were widened.

This what Coore said about the redesign.

"I wouldn't call it a restoration. We made very minor alterations, not nearly on the order as what we did at Pinehurst (prior to the 2014 US Open), Maidstone and Old Town."

Primarily, they restored lines and angles to the fairways from 10 new tees but the greens were also extended, and they also worked on the par four sixth hole where the vegetation to the right of the hole had thickened.

Following the 2017 US Open, where the scoring was silly low given the lack of wind on a wide-open track, the USGA narrowed the fairways back in at Shinnecock before the 2018 edition was staged here and this is what Mike Davis, the USGA's executive director, had to say about the last-minute alterations eight years ago.

"Did Erin Hills influence us? Absolutely. We went into Erin Hills anticipating wind, and with the firmness there, felt we had to present more width so players could keep balls in the fairway. Looking back, there wasn't enough of a premium on accuracy."

Almost five acres of fairway turf was removed and replaced by strips of fescue from Shinnecock's par-3 course, but the fairways were still as wide as they'd ever been and they were far wider than they were in 2004.

On that occasion they averaged 26.6 yards. In 2018 they averaged 41.6. That was reasonably wide but anyone that strayed badly from the fairways found trouble. After a strip of penal four-inch long rough, severely errant tee shots found knee-high fescue grass.

Brooks Koepka showed just what a tremendous player he was at the time, defending the title he'd won at Errin Hills, with an 18-under-par winning total, with a +1 winning score here.

Shinnecock is an exposed, sand-based links-style course. The poa annua greens are small and heavily bunkered and they're expected to run at between 13 and 14 on the Stimpmeter.

For more on the course, this hole-by-hole guide on the US Open website is excellent and so too is the Fried Egg Golf video below.

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Weather forecast

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TV coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 11:30 on Thursday in the UK.

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Last 12 US Open winners with pre-event Betfair Exchange prices

2025 - JJ Spaun -1 290.0289/1
2024 - Bryson DeChambeau -6 25.024/1
2023 - Wyndham Clark -10 120.0119/1
2022 - Matt Fitzpatrick -6 32.031/1
2021 - Jon Rahm -6 12.011/1
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau -6 30.029/1
2019 - Gary Woodland -13 110.0109/1
2018 - Brooks Koepka +1 34.033/1
2017 - Brooks Koepka -16 60.059/1
2016 - Dustin Johnson -4 17.016/1
2015 - Jordan Spieth -5 11.010/1
2014 - Martin Kaymer -9 50.049/1

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A statistical look at the US Open over the last 10 years

Here are the traditional stats for the top five and ties at the last two US Opens at Shinnecock Hills.

(Key: DD - Driving Distance; DA - Driving Accuracy; GIR - Greens in Regulation; SC - Scrambling; PA - Putting Average)

2018 US Open
1 Brooks Koepka +1 DD 2, DA 55, GIR 4, SCR 24, PA 5
2 Tommy Fleetwood +2 DD 13, DA 1, GIR 2, SCR 14, PA 9
3 Dustin Johnson +2 DD 4, DA 16, GIR 2, SCR 6, PA 37
4 Patrick Reed +4 DD 47, DA 44, GIR 6, SCR 57, PA 7
5 Tony Finau +5 DD 9, DA 51, GIR 12, SCR 54, PA 2

2004 US Open
1 Retief Goosen -4 DD 5, DA 12, GIR 9, SCR 1, PA 12
2 Phil Mickelson -2 DD 38, DA 8, GIR 3, SCR 2, PA 24
3 Jeff Maggert +1 DD 36, DA 19, GIR 9, SCR 10, PA 9
4 Shigeki Matsuyama +4 DD 27, DA 16, GIR 1, SCR 27, PA 32
4 Mike Weir +4 DD 48, DA 19, GIR 17, SCR 10, PA 11

Only two of the 10 players inside the top five over the two editions have ranked outside the top 10 for Greens In Regulation and 17^th is the worst any of the 10 have ranked for that stat.

Although the US Open is nomadic, given the courses are generally set up similarly year after year, in addition to looking at the stats at Shinnecock, it's worth a quick look at all the results over the last decade.

Here are the average rankings of the last ten US Open winners in all the traditional main categories and it's immediately apparent that, just as it's been at Shinnecock, Greens In Regulation has been the most important stat.

Driving Distance - 8.8
Driving Accuracy - 27.1
Greens In Regulation - 4.3
Scrambling - 15.0
Putting Average - 15.4

Given how tough they set the rough up, it's a little surprising that Driving Accuracy isn't a key stat.

Brooks Koepka (fourth in 2017) and Matt Fitzpatrick (fifth in 2022) are the only two winners over the last decade to rank any better that 18^th for DA but the worst any winner has ranked for Driving Distance is 29^th (JJ Spaun last year at Oakmont).

Last year's winner, Spaun, is the only winner in the last 10 years to rank any worse than 16^th and seven of the last 10 have ranked seventh or better for DD so the longer hitters have a big advantage.

Koepka ranked 26^th for Scrambling and 20^th for Putting Average in 2017 and Spaun ranked 30^th and 12^th for those two metrics last year but the other eight winners have ranked highly for either Scrambling or Putting Average but not both.

Interestingly, none of the 10 winners have had a single figure ranking for both of those two metrics.

Spaun ranked ninth for Greens In Regulation 12 months ago but that's the worst ranking any US Open winner has had since Martin Kaymer ranked 18^th at Pinehurst in 2014 so that's clearly the key stat.

There have only been Strokes Gained figures produced for the last seven US Opens and as is the case most weeks, the most important metric has been SG: Tee-to-Green.

Here are the average Strokes Gained rankings for the last seven US Open winners.

SG Tee - 10.17
SG Approach - 19.5
SG Around the Green - 15.89
SG Tee to Green - 8.0
SG Putting - 17.5

Spaun, who ranked as high as 25^th for SG: Tee-to-Green, is the first US Open winner to rank any higher than seventh, pushing the average ranking up to exactly eight.

The first six winners averaged just 3.8, so SG: T2G has been the most important stat but that's not surprising given how important a stat GIR has been over the last ten years.

Being powerful off the tee has been important but an elite approach game has been essential and the two stats to concentrate on at this particular major are GIR and SG: T2G.

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Is there an identikit US Open winner?

The US Open produces more than its fair share of event specialists.

Andy North only ever won three PGA Tour events and two of them were US Opens! Jeff Maggert only won three PGA Tour events too and none of them majors but between 1994 and 1999 he finished inside the top ten in this championship four times.

Bryson DeChambeau is a two-time champ and Brooks Koepka finished first, first, second and fourth in the four US Opens he played in before 2022.

It's very easy to concentrate too hard on previous major champions whenever we start looking at form for any major but it's odds-on that the winner won't have tasted success before if recent history can be believed.

As Dave Tindall highlights in his 10-year-trends piece, eight of the last 10 US Open winners hadn't won a major before and the two that had, DeChambeau two years ago, and Koepka, who defended the title here at Shinnecock eight years ago, had both won the US Open previously.

Looking at all four majors collectively, 24 of the last 42 (57 %) major championships have gone to a first-time major winner so don't be surprised if we get another but do expect them to feature highly in the Official World Rankings.

Each of the last 16 US Open winners were ranked inside the top 32 in the Official World Rankings and 55 of the last 56 majors have been won by someone inside the world's top 50. The odd man out is Phil Mickelson who defied all sorts of logic at the 2021 US PGA Championship when he won at the age of 51 - ranking 115^th in the world.

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A recent high finish is a great pointer

Spaun shot 76-74 at Muirfield Village to miss the cut in the Memorial Tournament in his final start before last year's US Open triumph and that went someway to explaining his huge starting price.

He took a couple of weeks off after that missed cut so arrived at Oakmont refreshed and raring to go and that weekend off apart, he was enjoying a good year.

After finishing third in his first event of 2025, the Sony Open, he finished second at the Cognizant Classic, he lost a playoff to Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, and his sixth placed finish at the Charles Schawb Challenge in his penultimate start boosted another US Open trend.

Following Spaun's sixth at Colonial Country Club, 11 of the last 13 winners have posted a top 15 finish in one or both of their previous two starts.

US Opens are really tough, and you simply can't just rock up and find your game from nowhere, as the last four editions demonstrate nicely.

Here are the form figures for the top five and ties at the last four US Opens.

2022
1 Matthew Fitzpatrick - 2-5-MC-10
T2 Will Zalatoris - MC-2-MC-5
T2 Scottie Scheffler - 15-MC-2-18
4 Hideki Matsuyama - W-14-3-60
T5 Collin Morikawa - 29-55-40-MC
T5 Rory McIlroy - 5-8-18-1
T7 Denny McCarthy - 25-48-27-5
T7 Adam Hadwin - MC-71-18-35
T7 Keegan Bradley - 4-2-48-37

2023
1 Wyndham Clark - 24-1-MC-12
2 Rory McIlroy - 47-7-7-9
3 Scottie Scheffler - 5-2-3-3
4 Cameron Smith - 6-2-9-9
T5 Tommy Fleetwood - 5-18-MC-2
T5 Rickie Fowler - 14-MC-6-9
T5 Min Woo Lee - MC-MC-18-40

2024
1 Bryson DeChambeau - 26-27-2-18
2 Rory McIlroy - 1-12-4-15
T3 Tony Finau - 52-18-17-8
T3 Patrick Cantlay - 23-29-53-MC
5 Matthieu Pavon - 30-67-MC-MC

2025
1 JJ Spaun -17-37-6-MC
2 Robert MacIntyre - 47-6-20-36
3 Viktor Hovland - 13-54-28-25
4 Tyrrell Hatton - 5-13-60-15
4 Carlos Ortiz - 4-16-7-10
4 Cameron Young - 7-47-25-4

The odd placed player has come in under the radar but even those with poor form figures in the previous four starts had shown something earlier in the year.

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Recent major form a huge plus too

Spaun's previous best in a major had been his tied 23^rd at the 2022 US Masters and the 2023 winner, Wyndham Clark, had shown nothing to speak of in a major championship either, but 10 of the last 13 US Open winners had posted a top 10 finish in at least one of their previous two majors.

The 2024 winner, DeChambeau, had finished second to Xander Schauffele in the US PGA a month before winning at Pinehurst and having finished 10^th in the US Masters in April, the 2022 winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick, then contended strongly at the US PGA Championship a month before he won this event, finishing fifth behind Justin Thomas at Southern Hills.

Very recent form, and recent form in either the US Masters or the US PGA Championship, or better still, both, is a huge plus.

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Could a vet bust the trends?

As Dave highlights in his 10-year trends piece, eight of the last 10 US Open winners have been aged between 26 and 31 but last year's winner, Spaun, was 34 and that's younger than three of the five US Open winners at Shinnecock, suggesting this could be a great venue for the more experienced pros in the field.

James Foulis was only 24 when he won the second edition of the event 130 years ago and Koepka was 28 when he won here eight years ago but the 2004 winner, Retief Goosen, and the 1995 champ, Corey Pavin, were both 35, and when Raymond Floyd won here at 43 years and 284 days old in 1986, he became the oldest US Open winner the history of the event.

Hale Irwin won the 1990 edition at 45 to beat Floyd's record but it's perhaps worth highlighting that Jack Nicklaus finished eighth behind Floyd here at the age of 46 in 1986 in what transpired to be his last top 10 in a US Open, so what limited history we have evaluate at Shinnecock, suggests this is a venue where the older pros can bust the general age trends.

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2025 - JJ Spaun - tied second with one other, trailing by one 5.79/2
2024 - Bryson DeChambeau - led by three strokes 1.9210/11
2023 - Wyndham Clark - tied for the lead with one other 4.84/1
2022 - Matt Fitzpatrick - tied for the lead with one other 4.3100/30
2021 - Jon Rahm - tied sixth, trailing by three 13.012/1
2020 - Bryson DeChambeau - solo second, trailing by two 3.55/2
2019 - Gary Woodland - led by one stroke 3.1511/5
2018 - Brooks Koepka - tied for the lead with three others 5.59/2
2017 - Brooks Koepka - tied second with two others, trailing by one 5.59/2
2016 - Dustin Johnson - tied second with one other, trailing by four 4.84/1 

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In-running trends at Shinnecock Hills

This major tends to be an almighty grind, making headway up the leaderboard as the week progresses is incredibly tough, and up with the pace is usually where you need to be.

Spaun was in the top two places all week-long last year and at Pinehurst the year before, the top five were all inside the top six places after round one, but the last four US Open winners at Shinnecock have all started slowly.

The 1896 edition was held over just 36 holes and the winner, Foulis, who won by three, was tied for the lead after round one but the last four winners have

Although they both won by two strokes, Floyd was outside the top 20 and five off the lead after an opening 75 in 1986 and Pavin sat outside the top 40 and six adrift after a first round 72.

Goosen, who also won by two strokes, shot 70 to sit tied for 20^th and four off the lead in 2004 and the front two in 2018, who were separated by just a stroke, Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood, both sat tied for 46^th and six off the pace when they opened up with a pair of 75s.

Pavin sat tied for 11^th and still six adrift at halfway but Floyd, Goosen and Koepka all sat tied fourth at the midway point, trailing by four, two and five strokes respectively.

Both Pavin and Floyd were still three back and tied for fifth with 18 to play but Goosen led by two and Koepka was tied for the lead with the unfortunate Dustin Johston, whose putting gave up the ghost after 36 holes.

The 2016 US Open winner, DJ, led the 2018 edition by four at halfway and he was matched at just 1.75/7 on the Betfair Exchange, but his putting prowess deserted him badly over the weekend. He used the flatstick just 53 times on Thursday and Friday but 73 times over the weekend and he was eventually beaten by just two strokes.

As already stated, and demonstrated by Koepka and Fleetwood, this is definitely a venue where you can make a big move from off the pace.

Playing the back-nine first in round two, Koepka began the round tardily and after seven holes he was two-over for the day and seven-over for the tournament.

He looked to be going nowhere except home and he was matched at a high of 800.0799/1 on the Betfair Exchange but just as the wind completely disappeared, Brooks got on a roll and a birdie at the par three 17^th sparked a quite incredible comeback.

Koepka's rally in round two was quite incredible but so too was Fleetwood's final round...

Having begun round four tied for 23^rd and six off the lead, Fleetwood was matched at as low as 2.447/5 during round four when he became just the second man ever to shoot 63 in the final round of a US Open (exactly 45 years after Johnny Millar had done it at Oakmont).

And he came within inches of becoming the first to shoot 62 in the event when he missed from inside nine feet on the 72^nd hole.

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Have the stars aligned for Scottie?

It's tempting to think that the stars have aligned perfectly for the world number one, Scottie Scheffler, this week.

With two victories at Augusta, in 2022 and '24, and a victory in both the US PGA Championship and the Open Championship last year, Scottie heads to Shinnecock bidding to emulate Rory McIlroy, who became just the sixth player in history to secure the career grand slam when he won the US Masters last year.

And if he achieves the feat, Sunday is going to be a day of monumental celebration as he also turns 30 on the same day.

After an incredibly prolific 2025, Scheffler has now gone 11 starts and five months without a win but only a fool would write him off around a course that should suit him.

He putts nicely enough on Poa Annua greens and although he only ranked 37^th for Greens In Regulation when finishing 12^th last time out, when attempting to win his third Memorial Tournament title in-a-row, in his previous four starts he'd ranked inside the top five for GIR.

The world number one has been tetchy at times this year, but he'll need to keep calm this week as blustery conditions (especially on Thursday) and a really tough layout are going to test everyone's patience to the absolute max.

Given the conditions this week and the past results at Shinnecock, I've concentrated hardest on the more experienced players in the field before the off and the two I like are Russell Henley and Patrick Reed.

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Henley one to keep an eye on

Henley is an accurate driver and an elite scrambler, as well as a recent winner, having birdied the last three holes at the Charles Schwab Challenge at the end of May before beating Eric Cole in a playoff, but he's not the greatest putter on Poa Annua and that slightly puts me off now he's shortened up into below 50/151.00.

I have had a small bet on Henley at 65.064/1 and I wouldn't put anyone off him before the off, but I'll be getting more heavily involved here once the event kicks off and we get a real feel for how the course is playing this week so keep an eye out for the In-Play Blog which I'll kick off on Friday morning.

Henley, who isn't the greatest in-contention, will be one I'll want to get onside properly if he's slightly off the pace heading into the weekend. He's won six times on the PGA Tour but only once when he's held a clear 54-hole lead and he was six clear on that occasion.

He's unquestionably a better chaser than he is a frontrunner and on the other four times he's held a clear advantage after three rounds on the PGA Tour, when he's been one, two and twice three shots clear, he's failed to convert.

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Can the USGA avoid a farce?

The weather forecast suggests very blustery conditions on Thursday, and we may even experience a suspension in play.

At the 2004 edition at Shinnecock, they decided to water the greens after the first four players made three triple‑bogeys and a bogey at the par‑3 seventh in round four and the runner-up, Phil Mickelson, parred the hole by deliberately playing his tee-shot in to a greenside bunker!

Phil was again in the news here in 2018 when he famously putted a moving ball on the 13^th!

When Phil Mickelson hit a moving ball on the 13th hole during the US Open at Shinnecock Hills. pic.twitter.com/1lqaBMTZnx

-- Golfballing (@golfballingpod) June 15, 2026

And after a third round 72 eight years ago, Zach Johnson claimed that the course was 'pretty much shot'.

"Pretty much gone. When you have a championship that comes down to sheer luck, that's not right. Unfortunately, they've lost the golf course."

The USGA will be determined that we don't get anything so farcical occurring this year and they're already watering, but those examples show just how tough this exposed, sandy layout is and just how much patience is going to be needed this week.

P.G Wodehouse's quote of "Golf isn't supposed to be fair" may well get branded about this week and anyone that loses their patience with the inevitable odd bad break, is going to struggle.

The draw, which hasn't been made at the time of writing, will be hard to fathom. Midmorning on Thursday looks like the worst time to be out on the course but we can't get too hung up on that as we may well see a suspension if it blows too hard.

Anyone wishing to get involved before the off may want to wait until nearer the time in case the forecast changes but I was happy to play Reed before all the facts are known.

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Steve Rawlings' US Open bet - Patrick Reed the sole selection

Given he has such a brilliant short game, and that he's such a prolific player, it's somewhat surprising that Patrick Reed's best performance in a US Open is his fourth-place finish here eight years ago.

He also led at the halfway stage at Winged Foot in 2020 only for rounds of 77 and 74 to see him slump to 13^th.

But he looks very well equipped to perform well this week.

After a great start to 2026, which saw him win in Dubai and Qatar, Reed heads the DP World Tour standings but without a card on the PGA Tour, he's been very lightly raced since his two wins.

He played a couple of events in March in South Africa, finishing 29^th and 10^th, but his only two starts since have been in the year's first two majors.

He finished 12^th in the US Masters, the major he won in 2018, and 10^th last time out at Aronimink behind Aaron Rai in the US PGA Championship.

Like the 1995 and 2004 US Open winners at Shinnecock, Pavin and Goosen, Reed is now 35 years old and the fact that he has such a wealth of experience, that he's a brilliant putter on Poa Annua, and that he's very lightly raced, all bodes well.

This may well be a week where freshness, both mentally and physically, could be a big advantage and I thought he was fairly priced at around 50/151.00 on the Betfair Exchange.

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