US Open 2026 First-Round Leader Tips: Dave Tindall's three to back up to 70/1

US Open weather forecast for Thursday

"There's nothing stopping the wind here. It forecasted as only 15-20 mph but you feel ALL of it. There's really no trees or anything stopping it." So said Michael Kim on X after Monday's practice.

That's particularly significant as Thursday looks the windiest of the four days and it's really going to blow hard.

The forecast suggests 27mph at 11am, with gusts up to 46mph! It's really strong either side of that too so we can't rule out a stoppage in play.

As for FRL history in this event, over the last six years the leaders were:

2025 - 66 JJ Spaun
2024 - 65 Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay
2023 - 62 Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele
2022 - 66 Adam Hadwin
2021 - 67 Russell Henley, Louis Oosthuizen
2020 - 65 Justin Thomas

Six of those had a morning start.

As for the two US Opens at Shinnecock this century...

2018 - 69 Russell Henley, Dustin Johnson, Scott Piercy, Ian Poulter
2004 - 66 Phil Mickelson, Shigeki Maruyama

First Round Leader Bet 1: Patrick Reed @ 40/141.00

Early reports that the fairways were wider than usual and there was a going to be real emphasis on short game brought Patrick Reed to the forefront of my mind.

He was already on the shortlist due to his fourth place here in 2018 and although I didn't back him in the outrights, I'll definitely play the Ryder Cup star here.

Reed has twice been a halfway leader in the US Open while he was second after 36 holes of April's US Masters.

Reed's name also starts to flash when noting he was the first-round leader in at the Qatar Masters in February. It always blows at Doha GC and his eventual victory there added to wins at other windy venues such as Kapalua and Torrey Pines.

Overall, Reed has finished inside the top 10 after day one in five of his last eight starts so he's been hitting the ground running on a consistent basis.

It's hard to know if a tee-time of 07:52 is helpful or not but what we do know is that everyone will have to deal with the wind and Reed is one of the best at coping in gusty conditions.

Back him for FRL at 40/141.00 (1/4 Odds, 5 Places).

First Round Leader Bet 2: Shane Lowry @ 70/171.00

That extreme weather forecast will put fear into many but it won't be anything out of the ordinary to Shane Lowry.

Beyond being able to deal with the conditions, Lowry also seems to be making his mark early right now.

In the last three events he has first-round positions of 7-8-8. The final one of those was the US PGA while the Irishman was sixth after 18 holes of the US Masters so he's made strong starts in both 2026 majors.

At the end of last year he was FRL in back-to-back events in India and Abu Dhabi, starting out with a 64 in both tournaments.

True, he missed the cut at Shinnecock in 2018 but so did Rory McIlroy and other top names so Lowry was hardly alone.

He's at the other end of the draw to Reed so that helps us hedge our bets a little. Back Lowry from his 13:47 tee-time at 70/171.00.

First Round Leader Bet 3: Cameron Smith @ 60/161.00

Those high winds get me looking closely at Open winners so, as well as Lowry, I'll add in St Andrews 2022 hero Cameron Smith.

The Aussie has been in the doldrums for the last few years but seems to be finding a spark again since working with Claude Harmon.

He was seventh in the US PGA Championship last month and has followed that with 16th and fifth in the LIV Golf events in Korea and Andalucia. He was third after two laps in both.

As with Reed, Smith will appreciate the wider fairways and, presuming everyone will miss greens in these high winds, his magical short game could be a real difference maker.

Smith has twice made the top four in US Opens and can make an early impression from his 07:19 tee-time.

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