-
Get live updates on this week's Gorton and Denton by-election
-
Greens favourites as three-way race reaches polling day
-
Click here for latest betting on the Betfair Exchange
26 February - Greens odds-on but could we see an upset?
The Green Party are 1.574/7 to win the Gorton and Denton by-election as one of the most unpredictable by-election for years reaches its conclusion today.
Money continued to pour into the Betfair Exchange market as polling stations opened in the Manchester constitiuency where Reform UK are 4.94/1 and Labour 5.69/2.
The Betfair Exchange prices indicate that the Green will win the seat which voted for Labour by a 13,000 majority at the general election 2024.
Polling in the last few days, however, has shown the three parties all in contention. There has been rancour between Labour and the Greens, with Keir Starmer's party accused of misrepresenting the mood among voters by claiming that only Labour can beat Reform in Gorton and Denton.
In the market on which party will finish second, Reform are 1.75/7 and Labour 3.613/5.
Losing the by-election would be a blow to Labour and Starmer visited the constituency this week to try to drum up support for Labour.
The by-election is seen as an indicator of how they next general election, and May's local elections, could pan out.
Labour are 2.982/1 to win the most seats at the next general election, with Reform 2.942/1 and no over all majorty in the House of Commons 1.814/5.
The result from Gorton and Denton is expected to be declared at around 4am on Friday morning.
25 February - Bettors come for Labour
With voting open in less than 24 hours Labour are looking resurgent in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
At the time of writing, Labour are closing in on Reform in betting on the Betfair Exchange, after their odds collapsed from around 8.07/1 to 6.05/1 yesterday evening.
They have since tightened even further and Labour are currently around 5.24/1 with Reform 4.84/1.
The Green Party are still favourites at 1.664/6 but that represents a little drift since Tuesday.
24 February - Greens lead Reform as Labour lag distant third
With two days to go, the race to win the Gorton and Denton by-election is tightening, according to the latest prices on the Betfair Exchange.
The Green Party are still odds-on favourites at 1.584/7 but they have drifted from where they were yesterday (see update below).
Their nearest rivals Reform UK shortened to 3.953/1 while Labour, who won the seat in 2024, moved into 8.27/1.
These prices still mean it will be a surprise if we see anything other than a Green victory in the Manchester constituency on Thursday, as it is a 63% chance on the Betfair Exchange.
But they will not be taking it for granted and all three leading parties remain in the hunt. It is not unusual for election races to tighten in the days leading up to voting and the market could see plenty of movement between now and Thursday.
The winner market is not the only one on the Betfair Exchange for this hotly-anticipated by-election which commentators are saying could provide clues as to the outcome of the next general eleciton.
You can also bet on which party will finish second - Reform are 1.584/7 - and how high a turnout we will see on Thursday. The latter is wide-open, with 35-40% the current favourite at 3.7511/4. With all the focus on Gorton and Denton, will constituents feel compelled to get themselves to polling stations? As with everything else about this by-election, that remains uncertain.
23 February - Greens lead Reform as Labour lag distant third
The Green Party are 1.392/5 favourites on the Betfair Exchange- roughly a 72% chance - to win Thursday's by-election in Gorton and Denton and deal a powerful blow to Labour and Reform UK.
Reform continue to be the second favourites 4.77/2 on the Exchange, well behind the Greens, but the only party with a realistic chance of defeating them, according to the market, after Labour drifted into massive outsider territory at 12.523/2.
With three days of campaigning to go, the parties will be doubling down on their messages and working hard to convince wavering voters that they are best placed to deliver for the Manchester constituency.
By-elections are often regarded as indicators of the government's standing with the wider electorate and can provide indications of which way the next general election will go.
On that score, there was good news for Labour as they regained favouritism in the market on which party will win the most seats at the next general election.
The market is tight, however, with Labour 2.81181/100 and Reform 3.185/40 with the Conservatives out at 7.613/2 and the Green Party 10.191/10.
The Exchange shows that all parties will struggle to win a majority with no over all majority - as happened in 2010 and 2017 - the shortest price at 1.84/5.
For now, though, all the focus is on Gorton and Denton this Thursday. We will have more news on the betting in the run up to polling day.
17 February - Bettors move for Greens as Reform drift
With just over one week to go before the Gorton and Denton by-election, the Betfair Exchange shows the Green Party are still firmly ahead of their competitors at 1.654/6. That price implies roughly a 61% chance of victory on 26th February.
Reform UK have remained at around 4.77/2 on the Exchange, leaving them well behind the Greens but still regarded as the second favourite by bettors.
Meanwhile, the party which held this seat comfortably just 18 months ago remain distant in third place - as Labour's decision to block Andy Burnham continues to cast a shadow over the contest.
Labour are 5.79/2 currently on the Betfair Exchange which equates to a meagre 18% chance of victory, although they have made up ground in the market after trading at 9.28/1 five days ago.
With the by-election just nine days away, the market's pricing makes the Green Party firm favourites, with Reform struggling for momentum and Labour receving some support following their dire position last week.
A Green victory at these odds would be historic and pile further pressure on Starmer and his team ahead of May's local elections and beyond.
12 February - Greens victory a 69% chance
With two weeks to go before the Gorton and Denton by-election the Betfair Exchange odds on the Green Party tumbled to 1.444/9.
That means victory for the Greens on 26 February is a 69% chance, according to the Exchange.
Reform UK, meanwhile, drifted to 4.3100/30 - a signficant backwards move from where they were this time last week (see below update) in the market.
The chances of Nigel Farage's party winning in the Manchester constituency stand at just 23%, if the market is accurate.
Labour have endured another turbulent week, with the prime minister Keir Starmer dismissing a call to resign and rallying his allies, earlier this week.
The fallout from the Peter Mandelson scandal is continuing but Starmer, who lost his most senior political advisor at the weekend, looks safe for now, with an exit by 1 April out to 15.014/1.
Bettors do expect Starmer to go this year and make him 1.422/5 to be replaced in 2026.
Losing in Gorton and Denton would put the PM under pressure again and that looks likely.
Labour are 9.28/1 to win this month's by-election in a constituency where they were comfortable victors in July 2024. That is worrying for Starmer and his party, leaving them a mountain to climb in the next fortnight.
5 February - Greens backed as Mandelson fallout hits Labour
The Green Party's chances of winning the Gorton and Denton by-election in three weeks' time were boosted by speculation about Keir Starmer's future as Labour leader, according to the Betfair Exchange.
The Greens are 1.794/5 to win the Manchester constituency on 26 February and claim what would be their fifth seat in the House of Commons.
Reform are 2.747/4 and Labour have drifted to 10.519/2 to win a constituency they won comfortably in 2024.
Starmer to exit this year a 73% chance on Betfair Exchange
The by-election market moves came during an extraordinary few days in British politics, following a series of revelations about Peter Mandelson and his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.
At prime minister's questions yesterday, Starmer admitted he knew about Mandelson's ties to Epstein when he appointed the former MP and cabinet minister as Britain's ambassador to the US.
Last night, Labour MPs were said to be furious and predicting that Starmer's days as prime minister and Labour leader were numbered.
The odds on Starmer leaving in 2026 shortened to 1.384/11 (a 73% chance) as the revelations about Mandelson's friendship with Epstein, including allegations that the former-Labour politician leaked information to the disgraced American, continued to emerge.
Starmer has fought to distance himself from Mandelson but few are buying it. What was predicted to be a difficult year for the prime minister is starting to look impossible and talk is already turning to who will replace him.
It could be Rayner v Streeting next Labour leader
Angela Rayner is 3.711/4 favourite to be the next Labour leader. Starmer's former-deputy, who was forced to resign last year over her tax affairs, pulled ahead of Wes Streeting 4.47/2, the health secretary. Ed Mililband, meanwhile, has gained some momentum in the market, shortening to 8.415/2. He previously lead Labour from 2010 to 2015.
The market on the next Labour leader is closely related to that on next prime minister, for obvious reasons. If Starmer goes then his successor as Labour leader will become PM, although the change would increase the likelihood of a general election being brought forward.
The last general election was in 2024, so the next is not scheduled until 2029, but with a different leader in number 10, there would be calls from Labour's opponents for it to be held sooner.
2 February - Green Party odds-on favourites to win 26 February by-election
The Green Party are 1.8810/11 favourites to win the Gorton and Denton by-election on the Betfair Exchange, which will take place on 26 February, with Reform UK 3.02/1 and Labour 6.411/2.
The by-election will be a significant political betting event on the Betfair Exchange and a test of the government's popularity.
A week ago, Reform were favourites, but Betfair Exchange bettors have backed the Greens into odds-on, overtaking Nigel Farage's party in the process.
The outcome of the by-election in the Manchester constituency could indicate whether or not other the Greens and Reform UK can make a significant impact at the next general election.
Labour won the seat at the last general election, in 2024, by over 13,000 votes from second-placed Reform. But Labour's plummeting popularity in goverment, which is consistently reflected in polling, as well as the controversy over their decision to block Andy Burnham from standing as their candidate, means they could struggle to win the by-election this month.
Will Reform or Green win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Losing the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens or Reform would be a blow to Labour and give the prime minister Keir Starmer cause for concern about both his leadership and his party's chances of winning the next general election.
Starmer is 1.875/6 on the Exchange to leave as Labour leader this year.
If Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election, it could be a significant step on the path to challenging to win the most seats at the next general election.
Reform are 2.111/10 to be the largest party in the House of Commons after the next general election - Labour are 3.711/4. Reform are 4.131/10 to win a majority - no over all majority is the favourite 1.824/5 - and their leader Farage is 8.27/1 to be the next prime minister, although that price would be smaller if it were not for the possibility that Labour could change leader before the next general election.
Reform have a mixed record at by-elections, however, taking Runcorn and Helsby from Labour in 2025 but losing to Plaid Cymru, against the odds, in Caerphilly, South Wales.
For the Greens, this will be an interesting measure of their progress under new leader Zack Polanski. Membership of the party has reportedly surged since he took over last year.
Why is a by-election happening in Gorton and Denton?
The by-election, which is likely to take place in February or March, was triggered when the MP Andrew Gwynne decided to step down.
At the last general election, in July 2024, Gwynne won the seat for Labour, although he had been sitting as an independent since losing the Labour whip last year.