- Bills favourites at Chiefs in rematch of best game of last season
- Dallas defence allowed an average of 12pts per game over last three
- Eagles are only unbeaten team left in the NFL at 5-0
We hit the one-third of the season marker in Week Six of one of the most enthralling NFL seasons in memory, and this week should be another belter.
We've got a rematch of the best game of last season as the Buffalo Bills look to avenge that heart breaking play-off loss at the Kansas City Chiefs, while the unbeaten Eagles face their toughest test yet against 4-1 rivals Dallas.
With plenty of other big game son the slate, let's dive right in to this week's NFL picks...
Buffalo Bills (4-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Match Odds: 4/6 | 6/5
Spread: Bills -2.5
O/U: 53.5
This is the highlight of the week - and enthralling re-run of January's all-time classic play-off game with MVP candidates Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes battling it out for their two big Super Bowl fancies.
The Bills are still hurting from that heartbreaker of a loss in overtime when Allen didn't even get the chance to have the ball. That rule's now been changed but the pain is still there - and driving the Super Bowl favourites on this season.
Buffalo were just 13 seconds from victory before Mahomes pulled a rabbit out of the hat, and the good news for us is that both sides look well equipped to serve up another slugfest - this game could well be another classic.
They're the top two scorers in the NFL but neither team runs it anywhere near as well as they pass it - with Allen being Buffalo's top rusher in four of five games so far, which is not exactly ideal for protecting their star asset.
There should be a ton of points, a ton of yards for Mahomes and Allen and possibly the odd rushing TD for one or both two, but the Bills I feel have the edge in a couple of areas - most notably on defence where they allow just 12.2 points a game as opposed to 25 by KC's defensive unit.
Allen also has more weapons on that he's comfortable with then Mahomes right now, who is leaning heavily on Travis Kelce - catching seven of their 15 passing TDs so far. It's an almighty task but if you keep Kelce quiet you can slow this offence down.
And slowing down is all it might take, as Allen will put up points with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davies and Isaiah McKenzie all capable of putting up big numbers - so in a game where it could well come down to who has the ball last, Buffalo just get the nod in a game well worth watching.
Dallas Cowboys (4-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (5-0)
Match Odds: 2/1 | 2/5
Spread: Eagles -6
O/U: 42.5
Another huge game on Sunday Night Football and it's a case of who you believe out of unbeaten Philly and NFC East rivals Dallas, who've won four straight after an opening loss to the Bucs - beating both of February's Super Bowl teams in the streak all with a back-up QB.
Defensive giant Micah Parsons is the star of this Cowboys side, who haunts the dreams of every QB he faces, and Jalen Hurts hasn't faced a defence like this so far. He WAS the Philly offence last week as they escaped with a narrow win in Arizona thanks to a missed field goal late on.
The Eagles are better, and if they score points then Cooper Rush won't be able to keep up, but I don't see this Dallas D giving up too much, and I don't see this Eagles D giving up a lot either - what we will see plenty of is good old fashioned smashmouth football in the trenches.
Dallas really could cause a big upset here and win the game and I'm really tempted to pull the trigger on the money line, but instead I'll play this one safer. If we've got this game right and it'll be a low-scoring divisional tussle then I'm happy to take the Cowboys with almost a touchdown in hand.
New York Jets (3-2) @ Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Match Odds: 27/10 | 2/7
Spread: Packers -7.5
O/U: 45.5
The Packers haven't been 3-3 for a decade and despite a long trip back from losing in London they're still well fancied to beat the surprising Jets - but I just don't think this will be the walkover some expect.
Green Bay are 10-0 under Matt LaFleur following a defeat and have won 12 straight overall after a loss - covering the spread every time - and maybe their response to defeat in the UK will be stronger than the Jets' response to a rare old divisional win last week.
The Jets have won their first two away games, producing big 13-point and 10-point comebacks in the fourth quarter in the process, while Green Bay have failed to muster more than seven points in the second half in four of their five outings. If it's close down the stretch the New Yorkers will fancy a huge upset.
Either way they should keep it close at least thanks to their running game with Breece Hall and Michael Carter busting their yardage totals. Pick the Jets to cover +7.5 at 10/11.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4)
Match odds: 1/4 | 16/5
Spread: Bucs -10
O/U: 45.5
The Steelers are missing their top three cornerbacks and Minkah Fitzpatrick and now get Tom Brady after back-to-back 350-yard passing games as his receiving corps starts to get healthy. Brady has won 12 straight games against rookie QBs - with Kenny Pickett set to continue for Pittsburgh.
Josh Allen torched this Steelers secondary, and while Tampa Bay aren't quite that explosive yet they should still fill their boots as Pittsburgh have allowed 11 passing TDs and five 100-yard receivers against them - Mike Evans should prosper.
Pittsburgh haven't been 10-point home underdogs since 1989 but that sums up the size of their task - the Bucs should cover this spread.
New England Patriots (2-3) @ Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Match odds: 6/5 | 7/10
Spread: Browns -2.5
O/U: 43.5
We know the Browns can run the ball with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb as the league's top rushing team average 192.4 yards a game, but they can't stop opposing teams running it either so expect this to be a no-fly zone in terms of offence.
Rhamondre Stevenson can pound the rock for the Pats and Bill Belichick has been laying coaching smackdowns on teams recently - I'm not sure Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski has the talent available or the nous to make a Plan B work against New England.
Baltimore Ravens (3-2) @ New York Giants (4-1)
Match odds: 2/5 | 21/10
Spread: Ravens -6
O/U: 45.5
Here's a great stat - Lamar Jackson is a perfect 12-0 against NFC teams, suggesting that if he ever gets to a Super Bowl then winning the thing should prove no problem.
The problem for him in New York is facing former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, whose new defence hasn't allowed more than 23 points in a game this season.
Big Blue's star man Saquon Barkley will also find it tough going though against a Baltimore defence that has only let one running back to top 80 yards in 22 games. Daniel Jones may have to try and beat the Ravens going deep, but that's not been his forte at all this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)
Match Odds: 21/20 | 4/5
Spread: Colts -1.5
O/U: 41
The Colts got embarrassed, humiliated and shutout by the Jags just a few weeks ago, but now they're favourites as the Jags haven't won the way game in this series for five years - but I think that changes here.
Indy are without top rusher Jonathan Taylor, and his back-up, and Matt Ryan won't get any change against Jacksonville's pass defence. Indianapolis have gone under the points total in 10 straight games, this looks like being 11 to match the longest streak in the last 35 years.
Carolina Panthers (1-4) @ Los Angeles Rams (2-3)
Match odds: 7/2 | 2/9
Spread: Rams -10
O/U: 41.5
The champs are in a spot of bother here after just one touchdown in their last nine quarters - and no QB has been intercepted (7) or sacked (21) more than Matthew Stafford.
Spotting a side like LA with this bad an offensive line is risky, even with a ho-hum defence like Carolina's, as the Panthers could keep this close in a messy struggle, but with PJ Walker as their QB they're unlikely to have enough firepower to fend off Aaron Donald and co.
Arizona Cardinals (2-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
Match odds: 8/11 | 23/20
Spread: Cards -2.5
O/U: 50.5
The Cardinals are the only team who've failed to score a point in the first quarter this season, being outscored 38-0 in the opening 15 minutes so far - the Seahawks rank second with 41 first-quarter points.
So we can expect Seattle to jump out to a lead with QB Geno Smith playing surprisingly excellent so far - but then Kyler Murray will no doubt lead a comeback, whether he can get the job done is another matter.
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