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Back 4/15.00 TD double in huge Vikings v Lions showdown
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Back Bengals to win in Pittsburgh shootout
We've arrived at the final week of the season, and there's still plenty to play for and plenty to watch out for in Week 18 with play-off places up for grabs and some serious seeding questions to answer.
Minnesota and Detroit will fight it out for top spot in the NFC, Tampa Bay and Atlanta fight it out for the NFC South and the Bengals, Broncos and Dolphins clash for one final wildcard spot.
There's also plenty of top players being rested and a lot of teams with nothing to play for, leading to some lopsided odds and spreads that could prove tricky to get to grips with - so let's have a look at the picks and best bets for a fascinating Week 18.
NFL Week 18 Schedule
Saturday
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
Match Odds: 14/115.00 | 1/501.02
Spread: Ravens -19.5
Total Points: 41.5
The Ravens need the win to clinch the AFC North, Lamar Jackson needs one final stellar outing to convince MVP voters and the Cleveland Browns have been dead and buried for weeks - just three reasons why Baltimore are such mega 1/501.02 favourites - no, that's not a misprint!
The Browns have scored 16 points combined with no touchdowns passes in the last three, so you'd expect they'll have no chance of even covering such a huge spread as 19.5 points as a fired-up Jackson and Derrick Henry will run riot here - but there's always the worry of those starters being rested with the game won and a backdoor cover in garbage time.
So best bets here would be on Jackson and Henry's props and the Ravens to cover in the first half.
Pick: Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Match Odds: 8/111.73 | 11/102.11
Spread: Bengals -1.5
Total Points: 48.5
The Steelers will know if they've lost the division to Baltimore before kick-off, but they'll still want to win to avoid a first-round play-off meeting with the Ravens. The trouble is the Bengals need a win even more just to stay in the play-off hunt - they're also on a winning run while Pittsburgh have lost three straight, allowing at least 27 points in each with rumblings of discontent among the defence.
That's not what you need against Joe Burrow, who has thrown at least three touchdown passes in eight straight games, and with Cincy's defence a liability all season then we could see something similar to the 44-38 shootout in the last meeting. Burrow to throw another 3+ touchdowns is 13/82.63.
Pick: Bengals
Back Bengals to beat Steelers & over 48.5pts @
Sunday
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Match Odds: 5/42.25 | 8/131.61
Spread: Lions -2.5
Total Points: 56.5
This one's for all the marbles - NFC North title, top seed, a week off next week and then home advantage for the winner, the loser has to go on the road, which will be a bitter spill to swallow for either as they're two of the best teams in the entire NFL.
A few years you'd have laughed off the prospect of Jared Goff and Sam Darnold being two of the best QBs in the league, but they'll have plenty of joy here with Detroit uber talented on offence but their defensive struggles of late (allowing 30pts a game since week 13) mean Darnold can let fly. So even though it's high we'll back the overs in a Detroit shootout.
Both sides are great in close contests - the Vikings 9-1 and Detroit 6-1 in one-score games, which includes a Lions win over the Vikings, so this one really is a coint toss. You'd give the defensive edge to Minnesota but Detroit's home advantage cancels that out, so at a push I'll pick the Lions - just!
A bet I like though is a 4/15.00 touchdown double on Jordan Addison and Jameson Williams - both 'other guys' to star receivers but both on hot streaks and sure to have their numbers called often.
Pick: Lions
Back J. Williams & J. Addison anytime TDs @
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Match Odds: 11/43.75 | 2/91.22
Spread: Falcons -7.5
Total Points: 48.5
The Panthers have covered the spread in four of five home games, but they've allowed 30 points or more in four of the last six, and with Falcons rookies QB Michael Penix Jr impressing in his first two starts Atlanta should be able to get the win they need to stand a chance of pipping the Bucs to the NFC South.
Pick: Falcons
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Match Odds: 5/16.00 | 1/81.12
Spread: Bucs -13.5
Total Points: 43.5
Tampa Bay should lock-up the NFC South against a bad Saints side playing pretty badly. The Bucs hammered the Saints in their first meeting, leading 27-0 at half-time and totalling 594 yards of offence. Baker Mayfield will react to his Pro Bowl snub with another strong outing while running back Bucky Irving will have another big game after his 190-yard effort last time out - player props on those might be a better bet than covering a two-touchdown spread even if the Bucs are well capable.
Pick: Buccaneers
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Match Odds: 1/31.33 | 9/43.25
Spread: Commanders -6.5
Total Points: 44.5
Washington have bagged a play-off spot, but they're still going full steam at this one to get the sixth seed and avoid a return trip to Philly, for now, so Jayden Daniels will start and have the chance to beat-up on a Cowboys squad that lost 41-7 and is 2-6 at home this season.
Pick: Commanders
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Match Odds: 7/24.50 | 1/51.20
Spread: Packers -10.5
Total Points: 41.5
The Bears have lost 10 straight games this season, and 11 straight games to the Packers. Green Bay have won their last three home games by 25 points on average - and they're still playing for a higher seeding. Jordan Love will carve Chicago up in style, and I'd even be tempted to back them to cover.
Pick: Packers
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Match Odds: 1/12.00 | [4/5
Spread: Titans -1.5
Total Points: 36.5
The Titans have lost five straight and could get a shot of the top draft pick with a loss here, while the Texans are locked into the fourth seed so while they may start at full strength that will not last for long - so a tricky one to judge and too many red flags to get heavily involved betting wise. I just think Houston's A team gets enough going early to see it out.
Pick: Texans
Sunday's NFL acca
Back Texans, Patriots & Dolphins (-1.5) @
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Match Odds: 7/42.75 | 4/91.44
Spread: Colts -4.5
Total Points: 43.5
Another dodgy betting heat with two bad teams having nothing to play for after the Colts embarrassed themselves with a shock loss at the Giants. They could scupper the Jags' chances of the No.1 pick in the draft by laying another egg and allowing Jacksonville to win, but I'll take Indy to show some pride at home.
Pick: Colts
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Match Odds: 8/111.73 | 11/102.11
Spread: Bills -2.5
Total Points: 37.5
Josh Allen will continue his consecutive start streak but he won't be in the game long, and with Buffalo resting a few others there's enough reason to suggest the Pats could get a hugely welcome win - even if it does scupper their chances of the No.1 draft pick. Jerod Mayo's men pushed a full-strength Buffalo all the way a couple of weeks ago, but were booed off after a 40-7 home humiliation against the Chargers last week. They can't let that happen again. Look for a big DRake Maye game against Buffalo's second-stringers.
Pick: Patriots
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Match Odds: 6/52.20 | 4/61.67
Spread: Eagles -3
Total Points: 37.5
Saquon Barkley won't get the chance to make history against his former side, and Philly coukld have third-string QB Tim McKee playing with a load of back-ups as Jalen Hurts has concussion, Kenny Picket has sore ribs and they're locked into the No.2 seed. Drew Lock threw four TDs last week for the Giants to win a game their own fans wanted them to lose to get the top pick - and he'll again be trying everything to prove they don't need to draft a QB. There's a few weird games about this week and this could be thw weirdest of the lot, but for motivation factors alone I'll go with Big Blue, and back Lock for another decent game.
Pick: Giants
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Match Odds: 7/24.50 | 1/51.20
Spread: Broncos -10.5
Total Points: 39.5
Denver need a win to make the play-offs and luckily they'll play the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes and some starters. With at least 24 days until thir next game though Andy Reid will want to at least start some big players, and Carson Wentz is an experienced QB so I think the 10.5-point spread in Denver's favour has gone a bit too far. Especially as they'll have some rare expectation to deal with as their fans think they'll walk over KC's second team. Back the Chiefs to cover this one but Denver will surely win.
Pick: Denver
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Match Odds: 4/91.44 | 7/42.75
Spread: Chargers -4.5
Total Points: 40.5
If the Steelers lose on Saturday, go all-in on the Chargers as a win then sends them to Houston in the play-offs instead of Baltimore or Pittsburgh. Even without that though, I don't think Jim Harbaugh has too much chill in him, Vegas are already on their holidays and Justin Herbert's back-up Taylor Heinicke would still be the best QB on the field. Home win.
Pick: Chargers
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Match Odds: 1/31.33 | 9/43.25
Spread: Seahawks -6.5
Total Points: 38.5
The Rams could be going for the No.3 seed if Tampa Bay lose, but they've already announced Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter and are working on plans for resting, or pulling their starters out of the game regardless. This game could've been huge but Seattle are now out - that won't stop them wanting to give the Rams a bloody nose heading into the play-offs though so this is another trap game for betting. In any scenario though I like the Rams to cover the 6.5-point spread.
Pick: Seahawks
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Match Odds: 4/51.80 | 1/12.00
Spread: Dolphins -1.5
Total Points: 39.5
Miami need a win and Denver defeat to make the play-offs, and playing at the same time they'll have to play the full 60 minutes at full throttle - but maybe without Tua Tagovailoa. The Jets look like they've thrown in the towel and even with this possibly being Aaron Rodgers' final game I'm not sure he has enough friends in the building to provoke a full team effort.
Pick: Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Match Odds: 7/42.75 | 4/91.44
Spread: Cardinals -4.5
Total Points: 42.5
Quite apt in an injury-ravaged season that the 49ers can't even see out the campaign withou a big injury, with Josh Dobbs starting at QB with Brock Purdy out. That's about as depp as the analysis goes for a game between two sides with nothing on the line - take the home team playing with their starting QB.
Pick: Cardinals