NFL Thanksgiving Tips: Three to back and 90/1 Turkey day treble

• Back Cowboys & unders against the Giants at 13/82.63

• Jacobs to run riot over Dolphins in Pakcers win at 6/42.50

• Back Jahmyr Gibbs to shine in Detroit in 11/43.75 OddsBoost

• Wild Thanksgiving Triple Crown special can be backed at 90/191.00

The NFL and Thanksgiving are a match made in heaven and again there are three juicy games to get our teeth into while America scoffs down all that turkey and trimmings.

We begin where we always do on Thanksgiving in Detroit with the red-hot Lions, who are probably the best team in the NFL right now, taking on old rivals Chicago before heading on to the other regular stop in Dallas.

The Cowboys have been a mess but did win last week so are still clinging to faint play-off hopes as they welcome the Giants, before the legendary Green Bay Packers finish us off by hosting the Miami Dolphins.

Let's dive in....

NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Schedule

Chicago Bears (4-7) @ Detroit Lions (10-1)

(Thursday 17:30 kick-off)

Match Odds: 15/4 | 1/51.20
Handicap: Lions -10.5
Total Points: 48.5

Detroit have won nine in a row behind a increasingly dominant run game and improving defence that's allowed just 12 points combined in the last two games and hasn't allowed a touchdown for 10 quarters. They've lost their last seven Thanksgiving games though, including three against Chicago.

But they'll surely end the losing streak here. Caleb Williams played well on Sunday but Chicago's defence won't be able to stop Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery's running. The Bears attack just can't keep up with a Detroit side who've scored 40 points their last three home games - 52 in fact, in each of the last two.

If anyone can cover this spread at the moment it's the Lions, but my prefered match result bet is 1/12.00 on Detroit scoring over 30.5 points - which should be a gimme for a team that's scored 146 in their last three at home.

With a rushing TD in the last 25 straight games (an NFL record), the best bet is the 11/43.75 Sportsbook OddsBoost on Gibbs to score 2+ touchdowns. They'll pound the rock but will take it easy with Montgomery due to his shoulder problem, so Gibbs should run riot.

Jameson Williams is worth a look here too though, as Chicago have one decent lockdown corner to deal with Amon-Ra St Brown but they have been burnt by the 'other guys' in Christian Watson and Jordan Addison the last two weeks. Williams has scored in three of four at home so back him to score a touchdown at 9/43.25.

Pick: Lions

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

(Thursday 21:30 kick-off)

Match Odds: 8/52.60 8/151.53
Handicap: Cowboys -3.5
Total Points: 37.5

Cooper Rush v Tommy DeVito is not quite what the NFL would've had in mind for this one, but after Dallas' crazy win in Washington on Sunday who knows what will happen here in just a third Thanksgiving meeting between these rivals. That win kept Dallas just about alive in the play-off race and gives them the edge here.

Speaking of edges, Micah Parsons should have a field day against this travesty of a Giants offensive line, but Dallas aren't much better so expect low scoring and perhaps special teams to make a difference for Dallas - again - as they finally win a home at the sixth time of asking!

And thanks to fancying Chicago to get some garbage time points in Detroit, the Giants are worth backing for the lowest scoring team on Thanksgiving even as the 15/82.88 favourites.

Pick: Cowboys

Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers

(Friday 01:20 kick-off)

Match Odds: 29/202.45 | 4/71.57
Handicap: Packers -3.5
Total Points: 47.5

The toughest game to call of the three could possibly be decided by the weather on the frozen tundra as Miami have never won below 40 degrees under Mike McDaniel. Matt LaFleur's Packers are 8-3 in games played at freezing (0c or 32F) or below - as is expected at Lambeau Field which stages a Thanksgiving game for just the third time.

Tua Tagovailoa has breathed life into a flagging Dolphins side but mainly against bad sides - he's 0-4 in games under 40 degrees and the Fins have been notoriously bad against teams with winning records the last couple of years.

Green Bay are a bit more like the real deal, hitting a season-high 38 points on Sunday behind a monster Josh Jacobs game, and in the expected conditions they'll be able to run it much better than Miami can manage.

Throw in a Packers defence that's just generated three turnovers in a game for the sixth time this season and this match-up looks all wrong for Miami to me. I'll take the Pack to cover this one and Jacobs to be a major reason why.

Green Bay's big weak spot has been defending tight ends though, and Jonnu Smith has been on fire recently so he's Miami's biggest threat and worth a look as a 5/23.50 anytime touchdown scorer.

Pick: Packers

Thanksgiving Day specials

Let's just have a quick look at the Thanksgiving Day specials on offer for passing, receiving and rushing leaders.

Most passing yards: Jared Goff at 11/43.75

Detroit are the biggest favourites of the day and, even though they'll run plenty, that will open up some big holes for Goff to exploit. There are back-ups playing in a low-quality Dallas game to put a line through and a cold and windy night is expected in Green Bay - not ideal conditions for passers.

Caleb Williams could actually be his biggest threat if he slings it to keep pace or piles up some garbage time yardage.

Most receiving yards: Jameson Williams at 9/110.00

The value play of the three for similar reasons as above. You have CeeDee Lamb and Malik Nabers likely working with scraps, Tyreek Hill and Jayden Reed playing in a frozen run-first game, and Chicago's top corner Jaylon Johnson covering Amon-Ra St Brown.

St Brown had 98 yards combined in two games against Johnson last season, so conditions aren't great for any of the top wideouts in the betting - apart from Jameson Williams who could barely have it any better.

He's a hit-and-miss homerun hitter on paper but the splits between home and away are eye-catching. He averages over 100 yards on the fast track in Detroit, topping 120 yards twice with a lowest of 79 yards and has scored in three of four at Ford Field.

Chicago have one top corner but have been burnt by No.2 wideouts all season long - as mentioned above Jordan Addison and Christian Watson torched them for 12 catches and 312 yards combined in the last two games. Williams has the pace to burn them again.

Most rushing yards: Josh Jacobs at 5/23.50

Jahmyr Gibbs leads the market at 13/53.60 and you have to respect him, especially with David Montgomery's shoulder issue likely giving him more carries - but Josh Jacobs is third in rushing in the league and has topped 100 yards three times to Gibbs' twice.

Montgomery should be fit enough to take some carries off Gibbs too, and the conditions in Green Bay will likely call for more of an emphasis on pounding the rock than in Detroit, where Goff could help us out in all three bets by slinging a few deep passes to Jameson Williams!

All three are worth backing, but all three individual players can also help us out in the other markets too, so for very small stakes you can back all three to win in a Thanksgiving Triple Crown treble at a whopping 90/191.00. It's always a bit of a punt in these stats-based combos but I like all three to have some kind of connection.

So if Goff plays well, Williams is likely to play well and that will help limit Gibbs for Jacobs to bring home the bacon. Or should that be turkey?

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