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Chiefs & Lions backed to win as top seeds
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Eagles to edge out Rams thanks to Barkley
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We're down to the final eight in the NFL play-offs as top dogs Detroit and Kansas City enter the fray as big home favourites, the Rams go coast-to-coast to face Philly and there's the small matter of Josh Allen v Lamack Jackson to look forward to!
No massive surprises in last week's wildcards as we picked the Rams to beat the Vikings and Commanders to see-off Tampa Bay both as underdogs, but the manner of HOuston's defensive dominance against the Chargers was a big of an eye-opener.
NFL Divisional Round Schedule
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday (21:30 GMT)
Match Odds: 3/14.00 | 2/91.22
Spread: Chiefs -8.5
Total Points: 41.5
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs starters haven't played since Christmas Day so need to avoid the same slow start they had when Houston last visited Arrowdhead in the Divisional Round in 2020 and raced into a 24-0 lead. The Chiefs recovered to win 51-31 on the way to Mahomes' first Super Bowl.
He's now chasing a historic third in a row starting with a Houston team KC beat 27-19 just last month. The Texans stepped it up against the Chargers last week though especially on defence - and that pass rush will cause big problems to the Chiefs' O-line that's struggled to protect Mahomes all season.
Houston's defence looked great and we know the Chiefs have been built on defence all season, so 8.5pts is a lot considering KC have hardly covered all campaign so I'd take the Texans on that line - but both Mahomes and Andy Reid have excellent records after a break and if you've watched them at all this season there's no way you're picking against them now.
Chiefs to win by 1-10 points at 13/82.63 feels about right for this one.
Pick: Chiefs
Back the Chiefs to win by 1-10pts @
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Sunday (01:00)
Match Odds: 7/24.50 | 1/51.20
Spread: Lions -8.5
Total Points: 55.5
Rookie Jayden Daniels proved again he's different gravy with a fine display to beat Tampa Bay last week, just the fourth rookie QB to win a road play-off game, but a trip to Detroit to try and match the league's top scoring offence is a step up again.
Detroit's banged-up defence is rested but not healed, with five of their Week 1 starters all missing, so Daniels with his legs and throwing to Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz should get some joy, but slowing down Jared Goff and his multitude of weapons seems a stretch.
Again, the spread is big at 8.5 points as Washington haven't lost a game by more than eight points since Week 1, and with six straight wins and 13 in 17 confidence is high for a team that'll be dangerous treating this as a free hit.
Detroit are more likely to cover this than the Chiefs, but Daniel's never-say-die attitude means this one won't be done until the clock hits all the zeroes, but with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St Brown and Sam LaPorta Detroit just have too many weapons.
Pick: Lions
Back Sam LaPorta anytime TD & Lions win @
Los Angeles Rams @ Phildelphia Eagles
Sunday (20:00)
Match Odds: 2/13.00 | 4/111.36
Spread: Eagles -6.5
Total Points: 44.5
Saquon Barkley trounced the Rams in November with 255 rushing yards and two scores, so it's clear what Sean McVay's gameplan will be here, and LA's defence has been a strength of late - especially in last week's beatdown of Minnesota where they sacked Sam Darnold nine times.
Jalen Hurts didn't look great last week, but if the Rams can't slow down Barkley then he won't need to be - and even with Matthew Stafford slinging it and the Rams coming in having won five straight road games - if Philly can run it we've see all season how they can dominate the ball and the clock and just grind teams down.
Puka Nacua can make those tough catches and Kyren Williams the tough runs to keep the Rams in it, and as a complete offence right now you'd give the Rams the edge, but nobody has really handled Barkley all season, and he gets stronger as the game goes on so I expect a close one but with the Eagles just pulling away in the fourth quarter.
Back Eagles to win & over 44.5pts @
Pick: Eagles
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills
Sunday (23:30)
Match Odds: 4/51.80 | 1/12.00
Spread: Ravens -1.5
Total Points: 51.5
The game we all wanted to see - the MVP showdown between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, and in a snow game in Buffalo as well! Jackson and Derrick Henry rushed for 271 yards as Baltimore hammered Buffalo this season, but the Bills are 9-0 at Highmark Stadium and play-off games are a different animal altogther.
Allen has been Superman in the play-offs, while Jackson has been more like Clark Kent at times and is yet to throw a touchdown pass on the road in the post-season in his career. He'll have to change that here as despite Baltimore having the best defence in the league the last six weeks they won't stop Allen and James Cook putting up points.
The Ravens look the better squad, although Zay Flowers will be a big loss, but the Bills just look to have that something extra - and especially at home I'm slightly surprised to see them as underdogs, so I'll be happy to back them straight up as I trust Allen to deliver a huge game and, as yet, that;s not something Jackson has convinced me off in the play-offs.
Pick: Bills
Back Josh Allen TD & Bills to beat the Ravens @