Tour de France Betting Tips: Martinez at 150-1 can profit from fatigue on Stage 20

• Expect General Classification action to be more subdued

• Richard Carapaz (12.011/1), Matteo Jorgenson (14.013/1), and Simon Yates (10.09/1) will likely try again

• A speculative outsider like Martinez (150.0149/1) is low-stakes call

• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the 2024 Tour de France

What's the stage like?

No climbs are as vicious as those faced on Stage 19, but riders climb more here. Four categorised climbs are packed into the short 133km that starts in Nice and finishes atop Col de la Couillole, a 16km climb with average gradients of 7.1%.

Many in the peloton live on the Mediterranean coast near these climbs, but familiarity will not have bred contempt - this is a gruelling day at the end of three weeks of fatiguing racing.

Who are the favourites?

Shocking surprise coming up here, folks. Ta-dah! Pogacar (4.47/2). Claiming his fourth stage win yesterday he continued to look imperious, and it's again hard to see how he will not take a fifth stage if he so desires.

That desire may not be there, though. I suspect that, somewhere in Pogacar's mind, is a thought that he could go on to break Mark Cavendish's record for stage wins, and with two more in this year's Tour a distinct possibility, why pass up the opportunity? But he has said in post-Stage 19 interviews that his team will let a breakaway go here, so I guess we should take him at his word. Be cautious.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Richard Carapaz (12.011/1), Matteo Jorgenson (14.013/1), and Simon Yates (10.09/1) were the best climbers aside from Pogacar on Stage 19, and have to be considered again, especially as Carapaz will want to be prominent to secure the Mountains Classification, but none of them represent great value when it feels as if they may have already burned their matches.

On a day when it's hard to judge intention and the level of fatigue riders are dealing with, I'm going to again have a speculative punt on Lenny Martinez (150.0149/1). He won the one-day Tour Classic Alpes-Maritimes at the end of May over some of these same climbs and, whilst the opposition was weaker that day, he has stayed relatively quiet in this year's Tour and may be able to benefit from a tired peloton who is offering a breakaway its freedom.

How will it affect the overall markets?

It won't.

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