Masters Snooker Day 4 Tips: Trump well worth opposing at short odds-on

• Trump very erratic this term

• Day rated fair value at big odds

• Wilson has edge over Bingham this term

The upsets keep coming at Alexandra Palace, particularly in the top half of the draw. With Neil Robertson and Mark Allen now out, in theory Judd Trump and Kyren Wilson's route to the final is that much easier. I wouldn't bank on that being the case, though.

Trump hot favourite to advance

Trump plays the afternoon match against Ryan Day - an opponent who he beat 6-0 at the Champion of Champions in November and leads 4-2 throughout their careers. So far, so good. My doubts stem from that tournament being the only one where he's played anywhere near his best this season.

Otherwise, he's lost to numerous vastly inferior players, most notably Mark Davis and Aaron Hill. It is a similar story to last season and really since the first Covid lockdown. I'm not convinced about Trump's B-game and, while he's still always a threat in any field, the A-game has barely been visible for the three years now.

That always makes me think hard before considering him at short odds, such as today's 1.321/3. Day is extremely capable at his best, if perennially inconsistent. He's won a title this season. Whilst there's a good chance he gets thrashed today in this one-table set-up, the Welshman is capable of making a mockery of 3/1 odds.

Try a 'back to lay' trade' at 4.03/1, with a plan to cash out if he hits 1.75/7 at any stage in-running, and a 6-5 scoreline in the daily double.

Daily double (pays £36.75 to a £0.5 stake)

Ryan Day to win 6-5

Kyren Wilson to win 6-3

We are still yet to see a match go to a deciding frame, which partly informs today's correct scores. So far as the evening match is concerned, the credentials are strong. Kyren Wilson leads Stuart Bingham by 5-3 in their head-to-head, and by just 47-43 in frames. He won 6-5 in this round, at this stage of last year's Masters.

Indeed this will be their fourth match-up in a major in the past three years. Bingham won two of them, including at last year's World Championship.

Neither has been at their very best this season, but Wilson has definitely been superior. As seen with both Shaun Murphy and Barry Hawkins already, this stage is one where class players often return to their best following a bad start to the season. Perhaps that will be the case.

With Bingham, however, it is harder to see, because he really has been struggling. The 2020 Masters champion hasn't even reached a quarter-final yet this term, and most of the defeats have come against players way below him in the world rankings. Again, I question his B-game.

Here, my plan is a correct score combo on Wilson to win 6-3 and 6-4.

Follow Paul on Twitter @paulmotty