Six Nations Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Wales v France, England v Ireland and Italy v Scotland

Wales v France
Friday, 20:00
Live on BBC One

France still in sight of Grand Slam

France are in pole position to win the Six Nations title and the team can stay on course for the Grand Slam with a victory over Wales on Friday night. Fabien Galthie's side came into the competition as favourites and have lived up to this billing so far, winning all three matches.

After easing past Italy, France produced a thrilling home win over Ireland to take control of the championship.

Les Bleus were in ruthless form in the third round as they won 36-17 against Scotland at Murrayfield, scoring six tries including two from Damian Penaud.

France captain Antoine Dupont is fit to face Wales, with wing Gabin Villiere the only change to the team as he replaces Penaud due to Covid.

Wales bid for big win under lights

Wales' title defence has not gone to plan with Wayne Pivac's team struggling to find any consistency. A dismal opening defeat in Ireland was followed by a narrow home win over Scotland. A sluggish start at Twickenham two weeks ago put them in trouble and despite a strong second-half rally Wales were still edged out 23-19.

Pivac was left hugely frustrated by his team's first-half performance against England but the way they finished the game highlighted their attacking capabilities which can cause France problems. Cardiff pair Seb Davies and Josh Navidi come into the front row and prop Tomas Francis starts despite concerns over concussion following a knock during the England defeat.

France are 1.292/7 favourites to win at Principality Stadium but no-one should assume it will be a foregone conclusion. Wales have shown they can rouse themselves for big games, especially in front of their fans. France have beaten Wales in their last three clashes but two of them were settled by no more than four points. The firepower of France's backline should create enough openings to extend their winning run but a bet on a victory by no more than 12 points appeals at [2.94].

England v Ireland
Saturday, 16:45
Live on ITV

England need to raise level at Twickenham

England host Ireland this weekend and the stakes are high with both teams knowing only a win will keep them in the running to win the title. Eddie Jones' side have been short of their best but wins over Italy and Wales, since their opening defeat in Scotland, have given them a glimmer of hope of catching France.

Sam Simmonds has been selected to start at number eight for England ahead of Alex Dombrandt. Joe Launchbury is on the bench and in line to make his first appearance since the end of 2020. Hooker Jamie George lines up in the team with Luke Cowan-Dickie injured.

Ireland face crucial showdown

Ireland have been impressive over the last year and Andy Farrell's side sit second, with a one-point advantage over their opponents, after winning two of their three games.

A nine-try 57-6 rout over Italy in their last outing has not stopped Farrell from making six changes for this weekend.

Johnny Sexton comes back in at fly-half with Hugo Keenan and Andrew Conway returning in a team blessed with experience. Michael Lowry misses out despite scoring two tries against Italy.

England are in the unusual position of not being favourites to win as hosts, with Ireland shading the market at 1.8910/11. The visitors have been playing the better rugby but there is still the sense England, who have won four of the last five meetings, have another level which could keep their title hopes alive. Fly-half Marcus Smith has the flair and creavity to conjure something out of nothing which could settle a close match. England's young talents are backed to take inspiration from a full house at Twickenham and edge home for a slender win at 3.412/5.

Italy v Scotland
Saturday, 14:15
Live on ITV

Scotland need to be more ruthless in Rome

Scotland head to Italy this weekend and Gregor Townsend's side will be expecting to respond to their last two defeats with a confident win in Rome. An opening Calcutta Cup triumph over England failed to translate into a title charge, with defeats to Wales and France halting their progress. Wing Kyle Steyn makes his first Six Nations start in place of the banned Duhan van der Merwe and centre Sam Johnson replaces Sione Tuipulotu.

Italy's tale of misery in the Six Nations shows no sign of slowing with the team without a win since 2015. Replacement hooker Hame Faiva was sent off during the first half in Ireland leaving Italy to finish the game with 12 players after Braam Steyn's yellow card. It was therefore no surprise the team were hammered 57-6 in a harsh mismatch.

The handicap mark is set at 21 points but Scotland may find it difficult to cover this margin in Italy. There is no doubt the visitors should win this match with something to spare but big wins in Italy have proved elusive. Scotland's last two trips to Italy have resulted in victories by between 11 and 20 points. This is a preferable alternative bet at 3/1 to backing Scotland to win by at least 21 points in the handicap market.

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