Six Nations Tips: Rejuvenated England to sink Scotland

• England bid to end Calcutta Cup woe

• Ireland on track for third title in row

• France face tricky test in Italy

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England v Scotland
Saturday, 16:45
Live on ITV

England lifted by late show

England were on the verge of back-to-back Six Nations defeats but a dramatic last-minute victory against France sends them into their Calcutta Cup clash with Scotland this weekend in confident mood. Steve Borthwick's side finally came out on the right side of a close contest with Elliot Daly's try and Fin Smith's conversion edging them to a gripping 26-25 home win. 

Admittedly England, who lost their opener in Ireland, could have been put away if France had not frittered away numerous attacking chances at Twickenham but the hosts showed great character to fight back. The decision to start Smith at fly-half paid off as he showed composure and confidence in the decisive moments.

Unsurprisingly, Borthwick has stuck with almost the same team for this weekend's showdown. Ollie Chessum makes his first England start for almost a year with the forward replacing the injured George Martin in the second row. Marcus Smith again starts at full-back with Fin Smith staying at No 10 and Daly again on the bench.

Scotland have had a mixed start to the competition with a victory against Italy followed by a limp defeat at home to Ireland. Gregor Townsend's side had no answer to the champions in their 32-18 loss and will need a significant improvement this weekend. Finn Russell was forced off with an injury against Ireland but the playmaker's recovery is a major boost for Scotland's prospects.

England are desperate to halt their recent record against Scotland which has resulted in four successive defeats against them. Their last success was at Murrayfield in 2020 but the time looks right for England to gain a measure of revenge. Home wins against Ireland and France over the last year show their potential and with the positivity of their late victory in the last round England can end their Scotland woes. A tight contest is expected though, with the last seven clashes settled by a dozen points or less, and a win by no more than 12 points is backed at 2.568/5.

Wales v Ireland
Saturday, 14:15
Live on BBC One

Relentless Ireland in control

It is all change for Wales, following Warren Gatland's departure, with interim coach Matt Sherratt facing a huge challenge in his opener against defending champions Ireland. A disastrous run of 14 successive defeats brought an end to Gatland's second tenure with their loss in Italy marking the end of the road. Wales make a host of changes including a debut for wing Ellis Mee and a recall for experienced fly-half Gareth Anscombe.

Ireland remain the team to beat with their pursuit of an unprecedented third successive Six Nations title going to plan. Wins against England and Scotland have set them up for the triple crown this weekend in Cardiff. Captain Caelan Doris, Ronan Kelleher and Tadhg Furlong have all been ruled out of this match due to injury. Hooker Dan Sheehan returns to the team to lead Ireland for the first time. 

The favourites Ireland are virtually unbackable at odds of just 1.061/18 which highlights the huge gulf between the teams. Simon Easterby has stood in impressively for Andy Farrell and it would be a shock if they slipped up. Ireland have beaten Wales in the last three clashes and won seven of the last eight contests. 

Wales have only scored 15 points in their opening two matches and their focus, under new coach Sherratt, will be on defensive resilience in a bid to be competitive against Ireland. A shock win is surely beyond them but it may not be as one-sided as the 24-point handicap indicates. Preference is to back under 50 points in the match. Both of Wales' games have gone under this amount and the last nine matches between these teams have all produced no more than 44 points. 

Italy v France
Sunday, 15:00
Live on ITV

Wasteful France rue setback

Italy are no longer viewed as no hopers in this competition and their victory against Wales was further proof as they prepare to take on France in Rome. Their 22-15 win, with Ange Capuozzo crossing for their try, was thoroughly merited and evidence of the progress Italy have made under coach Gonzalo Quesada.

France started as tournament favourites but their title hopes suffered a major setback after their late defeat to England in the last round. Their handling mistakes proved costly despite another two tries from wing Louis Bielle-Biarrey. France failed to handle the wintry conditions and will hope they can be more clinical against Italy.

While France are 1.11/10 favourites for this match, Italy deserve more credit and are worth backing with a significant handicap. France could only manage a 13-13 draw against them in last season's competition and in the most recent meeting in Rome, two years ago, only won by five points. Italy are making rapid strides and a 20-point handicap in their favour looks very generous. 

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster

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