Melbourne Cup Tips: Take Nocturne to claim the prize for Europe

• Al Riffa bids to defy the stats

• Caulfied Cup the key piece of form

• French-trained runner fancied to get the job done

While the Melbourne Cup (04:00, Tuesday) probably isn't 'the race that stops a nation' anymore, it's still the highlight of the Australian racing season and there'll be the usual carnival atmosphere at Flemington on Tuesday.

With it taking place in the early hours of the morning UK time, it doesn't quite capture the betting public's imagination on this side of the world as much as some international events, but there's the usual strong European challenge and plenty of familiar faces in the line-up.

Al Riffa bidding to make history

History is against top weight Al Riffa as Joseph O'Brien's five-year-old bids to become the first horse to carry 59kg or more to success since the late 1960s, but he's very much the class act in the race and heads into it in search of a hat-trick.

He's won the Group 2 Curragh Cup and the Irish St Leger by wide margins on his last 2 starts and it's hard to argue that he's one of the classiest Europeans to have lined up in the race in recent times.He's also partnered by the excellent Mark Zahra, who's won the race twice previously.

It would be some feat if Al Riffa could get the job done from his wide draw and with the stats against him, but it would be folly to rule him out.

Presage commands respect amongst Euros

While Al Riffa heads up the European challenge, we also have the likes of Absurde, Meydaan and Onesmoothoperator attempting to wrest the prize from the grip of the Australians.

The connections of Absurde will be on quite a high having seen Ethical Diamond bag the Breeders' Cup Turf on Saturday and Willie Mullins' charge is bidding to win the Cup on his third attempt.

Onesmoothsoperator seems rejuvenated when heading over to Australia and he tuned up for this with a win in Group 2 company over there last time.

He didn't have a great passage in last year's Cup and better will be expected this time around.

Meydaan has claims for the Crisfords, but I prefer the chances of French-trained Presage Nocturne, who doesn't mind give in the ground (forecast currently has rain in it) and his fourth in the Caulfield Cup in his warm-up should set him up nicely for this assignment.

Best of the home team

Half Yours and Valiant King look the pick of the Australian-trained contenders, with the former revitalised by new connections and his recent win in the Caulfield Cup gives him an outstanding chance, the one unknown being the 2m distance of this race.

Valiant King is another who's had something of a resurgence of late, with blinkers seeming to have been the making of him.

He wasn't too far behind Half Yours in the Caulfield Cup and now gets weight from that one. It would be no surprise if he gets even close this time over the longer trip.

Melbourne Cup Verdict

While it was tempting to put up Al Riffa given he looks by far the classiest in the field, he does have to defy the stats if he's to get the job done.

I'm also fully respectful of the home team's chances, in particular the aforementioned Half Yours and Valiant King, and the Caulfied Cup looks like being the key bit of form when it comes to unravelling this puzzle.

It would be no surprise were that race to throw up the winner, and I'm hoping it will be Presage Nocturne who emerges victorious from it. He's got proven stamina and won't mind one bit if the ground comes up soft.

I'm happy to wade in each-way on this one at 7/18.00.

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