Serial Winners

Tony Calvin Tips

Paul Nicholls Previews

Kevin Blake Tips

Daryl Carter Tips

Racing...Only Bettor

Longchamp Racing Tips: Alpinista can take Europe's top prize back to Newmarket

Patrick Weaver
01 October 2022

Saint-Cloud winner Alpinista can make a winning return to Paris

Alpinista has the best CV of any runner in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

Alpinista comes into the Arc on the back of a career-best
Luxembourg yet to race over 12 furlongs
Murtagh filly napped to win opener
Patrick Weaver previews the six Group 1 races on Longchamp's most valuable card of the year

"Luxembourg has yet to race over the Arc trip of 12 furlongs. He comes with a risk attached, however much he might look guaranteed to stay."

In a race like the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, with so many Group 1 winners, it is difficult for a runner to stand out from the others.

Last year's winner Torquator Tasso, for example, had won a top-level race in Germany on his previous start, yet went off at 72-1.

This weekend's renewal at 15:05 is of similar quality with the seven shortest-price runners all out of the top drawer.

Alpinista gets the vote, as an in-form mare who ran a career-best on her last start in the Yorkshire Oaks.

That was her fifth Group 1 win on the trot over 12 furlongs and she will again be racing on going the soft side of good.

The favourite, Luxembourg, ran his best race to date in the Irish Champion Stakes over a mile and a quarter. He had half a length in hand of Onesto at the line, with Vadeni and Mishriff a length and two lengths back in third and fourth. Alenquer was sixth and Broome seventh.

Nothing wrong with that form at all, but Luxembourg has yet to race over the Arc trip of 12 furlongs. For that reason, he comes with a risk attached, however much he might look guaranteed to stay.

Onesto gained his course and distance win in the Grand Prix de Paris. He took the lead off Simca Mille 150 yards out and then held that one's challenge to win by a neck - the pair clear of El Bodegon and subsequent Leger winner Eldar Eldarov.

Torquator Tasso should be on your short list, having won the race 12 months ago. Westover won the Irish Derby. Do Deuce and Titleholder have top-class form in their native Japan, but Do Deuce, their recent Derby winner, was only fourth to Simca Mille in the Qatar Prix Niel.

Titleholder is a multiple Group 1 winner, and overall deserves to be a third of Do Deuce's odds.

This is the most important race Luke Morris has ever ridden in, and he has yet to put a foot wrong on Alpinista. She won't be far away and I'm on Sir Mark Prescott's mare win and place.

Shartash can sink The Antarctic

The Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at 13:15 is an easier puzzle to solve with only the two Irish runners having acquitted themselves well in Group 1 company.

Shartash 4.03/1 has finished third in two top-grade races at The Curragh over six and seven furlongs, since beating Bluebeard there in a Group 2.

The Antarctic 3.259/4 has been placed behind his stablemate Bluebeard in Group 1s at Deauville and Newmarket. Both over six.

Best of the French would be Tigrais 4.57/2 and Breizh Sky 7.06/1 who fought out the finish to the Group 3 Prix La Rochette over course and distance last month; Gamestop 21.020/1 was two and a half lengths back in third.

I'd expect the Irish to take the race, hopefully with the Aga Khan's Shartash. He would be an important winner for Johnny Murtagh on the Aga's home course.

I'm Wed to Group race form

The winner of the Qatar Prix Marcel Boussac at 13:50 is likely to figure in the major fillies' race over a mile or more next year.

Wed won the Group 2 Prix du Calvados over seven at Deauville by two lengths from Sparkling Beauty and Never Ending Story.

Aspen Grove won a Group 3 over a mile at The Curragh. Habana won a Group 3 at Baden-Baden on her last start.

John Quinn's Blue Rose Cen, Breege, Dandy Alys, Gan Teorainn and Start Me Up have been placed in the Group 3s they have contested.

Ardent and Kelina, both by Frankel, step up in class significantly, as does Strolromy.

There's no doubting Kelina 3.7511/4 has potential, but I'd rather go with a Group 2 winner. So it's Wed 4.57/2 for me.

Nashwa can confirm French Oaks form

Immediately after the Arc we have the Prix de l'Opera Longines at 15:50.

It's over the same distance as the Nassau and the French Oaks, give or take 110 yards, so it is no surprise that Nashwa, who won both, is favourite.

I'm not going to desert Nashwa 3.02/1, headlined when she won the French Classic. Hopefully she can fend off the runner-up La Parisienne 5.04/1 - only a short neck back after being hampered.

Rosacea 34.033/1, Agave 34.033/1, and Fall In Love 51.050/1 were the next three home.

Best of the Irish would be the Group 1 winners, Tuesday 9.08/1 and Above The Curve 4.3310/3, which won the Cazoo Oaks and Prix St Alary respectively.

Lurking at much longer odds is Insinuendo 21.020/1, only a neck behind Above The Curve and Luxembourg on her last two starts over 10 furlongs at The Curragh. She is six times the odds of Above The Curve, so has to be each-way value.

A Case for last year's winner

I'm drawn to A Case Of You 13.012/1 in the Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp Longines at 16:25.

He won the race in a photo 12 months ago and has since won a second Group 1 at Meydan in March.

The fourth home last year was Mo Celita, 17.016/1 backed down from 41.040/1 in the last 48 hours.

The best recent French form is the Group 3 Qatar Prix du Petit Couvert over course and distance.

Berneuil won that by three quarters of a length from Coeur De Pierre, the pair taking full advantage of stalls 1 and 2. White Lavender and Agiato have those boxes this time.

I simply can't have the favourite The Platinum Queen 3.55/2 as she has yet to win a Group race.

Kinross v Tenebrism should be worth watching in the Qatar Prix de la Foret Presente at 17:00.

There has only been one Group 1 race in Europe over seven furlongs for older horses and that was won by Tenebrism 5.59/2.

Kinross 2.56/4 has won two Group 2s over seven - The City Of York Stakes from Pogo and Sandrine 9.08/1, and the Park Stakes at Doncaster by a length from New Energy 11.010/1.

Sandrine had previously come off best in a three-way photo at Glorious Goodwood with KInross and Pogo.

The French 1,000 Guineas winner, Mangoustine, is in the line-up but she was well behind Tenebrism and New Energy in the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville in July.

Tenebrism looks good value at three times the odds of Kinross, so join the queue for the safest each-way bet of the day.

Recommended bets

Back Shartash to win the 13:15 @ 3.7511/4
Back Wed each-way in the 13:50 @ 4.57/2
Back Alpinista each-way in the 15:05 @ 5.59/2
Back Nashwa to win the 15:50 @ 3.002/1
Back Insinuendo each-way in the 15:50 @ 21.020/1
Back Tenebrism each-way in the 17:00 @ 5.04/1

Get extra places on Singles and Multiples on selected races on the Betfair Sportsbook. T&Cs apply.

Join

View market

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

Discover the latest articles

More World Racing

Serial Winners

Tony Calvin Tips

Paul Nicholls Previews

Kevin Blake Tips

Daryl Carter Tips

Racing...Only Bettor

Longchamp Racing Tips: Alpinista can take Europe's top prize back to Newmarket

Shartash can sink The Antarctic

I'm Wed to Group race form

Nashwa can confirm French Oaks form

A Case for last year's winner

Recommended bets

Discover the latest articles

Most read stories

Cheltenham Festival Focus: 33/1 Albert Bartlett chance has Better Days Ahead

Rachael Blackmore: Hopefully An Tobar can progress again at Fairyhouse

Horse Racing Tips: Rob Roy a plus up in trip for Sunday Carlisle double

Saturday Racing Tips: 23/1 Twig leads Tony Calvin's Coral Gold Cup pair

Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Max effort required for 50/1 tip in Coral Gold Cup

Paul Nicholls: Very happy with Complete Unknown ahead of Coral Gold Cup

Serial Winners

Tony Calvin Tips

Paul Nicholls Previews

Kevin Blake Tips

Daryl Carter Tips

Racing...Only Bettor

Shartash can sink The Antarctic

I'm Wed to Group race form

Nashwa can confirm French Oaks form

A Case for last year's winner

Recommended bets

EXTRA PLACE RACES

Discover the latest articles

Cheltenham Festival Focus: 33/1 Albert Bartlett chance has Better Days Ahead

Rachael Blackmore: Hopefully An Tobar can progress again at Fairyhouse

Horse Racing Tips: Rob Roy a plus up in trip for Sunday Carlisle double

Saturday Racing Tips: 23/1 Twig leads Tony Calvin's Coral Gold Cup pair

Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Max effort required for 50/1 tip in Coral Gold Cup

Paul Nicholls: Very happy with Complete Unknown ahead of Coral Gold Cup