Australian Racing Tips

Melbourne Cup Tips: Have some Soushi at 16/1 in the race that stops a nation

Melbourne Cup Tips: Have some Soushi at 16/1 in the race that stops a nation
Mark Milligan takes a look at the Melbourne Cup

After nailing last year's Melbourne Cup winner, Mark Milligan has cast his eye over this year's field and has a 16/1 shot for us....

  • Mullins has strong hand once again

  • Don't dismiss the other Europeans

  • Mark thinks the Cup will stay at home


The Melbourne Cup perhaps doesn't quite capture the Australian public's imagination as it used to, but it's still essentially an institution in that country and plenty will be tuning in and having a bet on the outcome.

While there won't be quite the same numbers watching on this side of the world with its 4am post time, there's still plenty of interest for us and horses trained either in Europe or who used to be based here dominate the market.

The race did lose some of its lustre when Aidan O'Brien was forced to withdraw his unbeaten St Leger winner Jan Brueghel after he failed vet checks, but Ireland still holds a strong hand courtesy of Willie Mullins once again.


Mullins duo back for more

Willie Mullins 1280 x 853.png

The master of Closutton saddles the same two runners as in last year's edition, Vauban and Absurde, with the former once again towards the head of the betting.

While Vauban disappointed in 2023's edition, he looks a better model this time around and has had a different preparation coming into the race, too.

He hadn't run in three months when heading into last season's race, but he warmed up for it this time around with a fine second to Kyprios in the Irish St Leger in September.

He just seems an all-round better model this year and the only thing not to like is the price, which is tight enough now in a big field.

Absurde ran really well to finish seventh in last year's Cup, and he proved at least as good as ever when taking a listed race at Chester on his final start before jetting out to Australia.

I'm expecting another good run from him.


The other European raiders

Brain Ellison's Northumberland Plate winner Onesmoothoperator proved a revelation on his first Australian start last month, bolting up over 1m 4f in the Geelong Cup.

He travelled supremely well that day and could be named the winner some way out.

The gelding did have an eleventh-hour scare when he failed a vet check and it looked unlikely he was going to make the race, but he's subsequently passed a second check and will be allowed to take his chance, much to the relief of all connections no doubt.

He gets in off a low weight and has to be taken seriously if in the same form as last time.

Harry Eustace's Sea King also has a strong chance for the raiding party.

Previously trained by Sir Mark Prescott, Sea King was a good sixth in the Ebor (just ahead of Onesmoothoperator) before winning on his debut for his current yard in the Group 3 Bendigo Cup last time.

He was well on top at the finish and is another who gets in with a feather weight.

He's also got a handy draw on the inside and Hollie Doyle jets in for the ride.


The best of the home team

Formerly trained by Joseph O'Brien, the classy Buckaroo now plies his trade in Australia for top local trainer Chris Waller.

This son of Fastnet Rock has been in fine form of late, winning two of his last four starts, while he's been runner-up in the other pair.

One of those victories came in Group 1 company at Caulfield, while he was only just touched off by Via Sistina in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at this track, and she's developed into Australia leading top-level performer.

Second in the Caulfield Cup last time, a race that's often a fine guide to the Melbourne Cup itself, Buckaroo looks sure to give it a good go, though this will be his first time at 2m and there has to be a doubt as to whether he'll see it out against some strong stayers.

While Buckaroo's chance is obvious, I'm going to side with another ex-Joseph O'Brien runner in Okita Soushi, who looks a solid each-way bet and is now trained by Ciaron Maher.

Only twelfth in last year's renewal, this son of Galileo was essentially fresh off the boat there (though he'd had a prep run the week before) but has now had a year acclimatise to Australian racing.

He's looked as good as ever on his last two starts, winning the Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup last time and has the services of top female rider Jamie Kah in the saddle.

I'm expecting a much bigger run from Okita Soushi this time and a price of 16/117.00 makes plenty of appeal with five places on the Sportsbook.


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Mark Milligan avatar

Mark Milligan

Mark Milligan is a Senior Horse Racing Analyst with Timeform Sporting Life and has been contributing to Betting.Betfair since 2021.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.