Jamie Lynch's Weekend Preview: The back-ups and downs of racing

'Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace. These brave men, Neil Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin, know that there is no hope for their recovery. But they also know that there is hope for mankind in their sacrifice.'

That was the start of a written and rehearsed speech, to be read by President Nixon, if the inaugural moon landing had ended in disaster. Contingencies of manifold scales are made every day, but there's something particularly eerie about that one when seen in black and white, knowing its existence, knowing the stakes. Wars have been started, won and lost through contingency plans, all of which puts into perspective racing's 'plight' brought about by the snow and the inevitable bemoaning of back-ups, or lack of them, on the frozen road to the Festival.

Words like 'chaos' and 'turmoil' will be used, but chaos and turmoil is what's going on in the Middle East, not what's going on in racing, in Britain, in winter. There'll be plenty of time, if perhaps not opportunity on the track, for trainers to get their horses ready for Cheltenham. Racing is generally quite good at contingencies, at replacing and reshuffling key events, with the powers that be thinking on their feet, or a foot and a half as it is now, having shot themselves in one foot with the Dipper Chase affair. 

All the same, already this year, the rescheduling of the Welsh National was a success, and the engineering of jumpers' bumpers, though mumbo jumbo as races, serve their purpose of keeping everyone ticking over. But for every enacted contingency in these opening weeks of 2013, hundreds more back-up plans will have been revoked; designed but consigned, conspired but unrequired, like the astronauts' eulogy. 
As increasingly seems to occur with sensitive documents these days, I've happened across them: some of the racing-related contingencies that were drafted, readied but never used. 

'I feel honoured to have held my privileged position for so long, but I recognise and humbly accept that this is a new era for a new generation, and that it's the right time for me to step aside, which I intend to do with dignity and grace.' 
J.M, London.

'Having reviewed the relevant races, especially in the light of Excelebration's subsequent Group 1 wins, the committee has decided to increase Frankel's rating to 142. Frankel is the best, no change to the rest, and everybody's happy.'
World Thoroughbred Rankings, who, credit to them, didn't take the easy way out.  

'Sit handy, and you can't go for home soon enough on him.'
Plan B, or any other jockey past or present, might not have worked so well for Monbeg Dude in the Welsh National. 

'Sit handy, and you can't go for home soon enough on him.'
On the other hand, Plan B might have saved Piper's Piping some trouble. 

'I'd like to book a long and relaxing family holiday.'
I've been watching, and Frankie has done remarkably well not to lose his patience so far, cooped up with the pantomime cast, but he's reaching boiling point. 

What you're reading now is a contingency. What was supposed to be an exaltation of Sprinter Sacre ahead of the Victor Chandler Chase, coupled with a synopsis of the Peter Marsh Chase, has needed to be hastily revised due to the weather, but every snow-filled cloud has a silver lining, and the lining is that now, at last, we're on my territory. 

Despite the puffed-up title of Chief Correspondent, I'm a simple Flat race-reader by trade, and while most eyes are on the glamour boys and girls of the jumps world through the winter, mine are fixed on the rank and file all-weather horses, getting to know them and their many, many, many foibles. So it's with confidence and no little relief that, with polytrack racing unexpectedly taking centre stage on a weekend in January, I finally get the chance to prove my worth. Here goes.

13:45 Kempton. If you weren't aware, David O'Meara is tearing up the polytrack - ten winners already in January - and anything that can finish even remotely close to an O'Meara horse is clearly well handicapped in its own right. Step forward Big Sylv. Having won easily at Wolverhampton in December, Big Sylv effectively followed up back there two weeks ago when second to Berlusca, who, needless to say, went in again next time, making it two from two since she joined O'Meara. Those races were over the extended mile, but, from the way she travels, Big Sylv promises to be as good, and possibly better, over this trip of seven furlongs. She's improving, she's straightforward, she's got the best draw, and she's going to win. 

14:55 Kempton. Every now and then, the all-weather rank and file are what can only be described as intruded by what can only described as a proper horse. This is one of those scenarios. As well as recent winners Aquilonius, Kames Park and Noble Silk have been doing lately, they've never - or not for a while anyway - seen a horse like Fluctuate, who has done before what he'll do here. In between racing at Newmarket and Ascot, Fluctuate dipped down to the all-weather once last year and won a maiden by six lengths, barely coming off the bridle. A big, well-bred colt with just four races behind him, Fluctuate is a good bet to simply outclass this lot. The blinkers are a contingency. Sometimes even certainties need a contingency. 

TIMEFORM GLOBAL RANKINGS 2012 - OUT NOW! Ratings for the top horses around the world, essays on Frankel & Black Caviar, plus much, much more.