Handicappers' Corner: Run is King again, but for how Long?

The retirement of Kauto Star, so dominant a force in the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day in recent years, left something of a void so far as this year's renewal was concerned, for all that the race produced a thrilling finish. 

Indeed, the King George field was lacking a lengthy list of possible contenders, with Al Ferof, Silviniaco Conti and Sir des Champs among them, and it largely revolved around Long Run, the winner in 2010/11, who was attempting to prove his doubters wrong after defeats in last season's Cheltenham Gold Cup and on his reappearance in the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

On unusually testing ground for the track, the King George turned into a real slog, and it was Long Run's guts and stamina that won him the race as much as his class. Racing prominently, Long Run probably pressed on too far out and, having taken a seemingly decisive lead before three out, was actually headed at the last by the patiently-ridden Captain Chris, who'd finished more than 18 lengths behind Kauto Star when third in last season's renewal.

A mistake at the last further complicated matters for Long Run, but he dug deep to get the better of a photo-finish, and he has been given a performance rating of 168 for his neck defeat of Captain Chris (who has improved 3 lb to 168), with his master rating remaining at 173. However, whilst Long Run remains a credible Gold Cup challenger, the feeling is that he's just not as good as he was - he ran to 182 when winning his first King George - and he will likely face stronger opponents come March than he did on Boxing Day.

Although the King George didn't cause much of a move in the ante-post Cheltenham markets, the same cannot be said of the Christmas Hurdle earlier on the card, as Nicky Henderson's Darlan shot to the head of the Champion Hurdle betting after a convincing victory.

A very smart novice over hurdles last season, when second in the Supreme and successful at Aintree (ran his best race when falling heavily when cruising two out in the Betfair Hurdle), Darlan looked in fine shape for his return and took a significant step forward, taking a keen hold under a waiting ride before quickening to lead two out, going on to score by 4½ lengths from Raya Star.

Darlan is now rated 163p, with the 'p' denoting that he is likely to improve further, which would put him right in the Champion Hurdle mix, but whether he deserves to be favourite is a different question, with the first three from the International - Zarkandar, Grandouet and Rock On Ruby - as well as Hurricane Fly and Oscar Whisky all currently rated higher.

The other highlight at Kempton was the Feltham Novices' Chase, but in truth we learned little that we didn't already know. David Pipe's Dynaste had already established himself as the leading novice at 20f+ this season, with a level of form good enough to win an average running of this event, and he had little trouble in seeing off inferior opposition. Dynaste's performance has been rated at 151, but he was clearly value for more than the nine-length margin of victory over Hadrian's Approach and so retains his master rating of 158p.

Clearly a high-class novice, Dynaste will take all the beating in top races to come and is deservedly a short price for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham (his trainer reported he would also have an entry in the Golden Miller).
  
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