Handicappers' Corner: Cool dude Carberry steals the show!

Paul Carberry has always had a surfeit of natural ability and rolled back the years with a stunning display aboard Monbeg Dude (c139) to land the Chepstow showpiece, showing unerring confidence under a very patient ride before pouncing at the last to defeat the well-backed home favourite (and Timeform top-rated!) Teaforthree (c155).

Saturday's win was hardly an isolated incident either, as Carberry produced similarly peerless displays in the saddle to conjure career-best efforts from the quirky pair Frenchman's Creek and Bellvano when winning valuable handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival in 2002 and 2012 respectively.

The superlatives, of course, were rolled out after all three of these big-race wins. Carberry's efforts weren't just visually impressive, though, as the numbers fully back them up, with significant improvement shown by the winning horse in each instance. 

Horses, of course, do most of the work in winning (or losing) races, but there is no doubt that good jockeyship can make a vital difference on occasions, particularly so when dealing with National Hunt racing. Ascertaining which jockeys can be relied upon to get the maximum out of their mounts will hopefully no longer be the preserve of armchair experts, as Timeform's computer boffins are developing a program (due for release later in 2013) which will provide jockey ratings as an extra guide for punters. You can find a taster here.  

Getting back to Monbeg Dude, it must be stressed that he doesn't share the temperament flaws of that aforementioned Cheltenham Festival-winning pair. Instead it is his idiosyncratic jumping technique which marks him down as a less-than-straightforward ride for the time being, with the omission four fences arguably proving decisive at Chepstow. What isn't in doubt, however, is that Monbeg Dude possesses a very powerful engine and, if those jumping issues can be ironed out (none other than Zara Phillips is reportedly being lined up to help out in this regard), then it's not inconceivable that he'll go on to even better things after just six starts over fences.

By contrast, Teaforthree has no worries on the jumping front and once more shaped as if tailor-made for the Grand National itself - indeed,  the combination of his high-cruising speed, solid jumping and prominent style of racing should prove a particularly potent force around Aintree. Naturally, much will depend on what mark the BHA assessor gives him when framing the Grand National weights, but we've taken a positive view of the Welsh National form for now, so the likelihood is he'll be coming out with a reasonable chance on Timeform ratings.

The home-trained contingent were also out of luck in Chepstow's other big race on Saturday, the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle, which saw Tim Vaughan's Swnymor (h133p) crash out at the last when looking by far the most likely winner.  A useful performer on the Flat when with William Haggas, Swnymor cost his new connections 70,000 guineas at the sales last autumn and already seems likely to reach an even higher standard over hurdles provided none the worse for his Chepstow spill.

The all-conquering yards of Nicholls and Henderson saddled French imports in the Finale, namely Caid du Berlais (h128) and the unlucky-in-running Megalypos (h130+), but both had to settle for minor honours behind the rather fortunate winner Ruacana (h130+), who provided the biggest success to date for his emerging trainer John Ferguson.

It was a relatively quiet Saturday for Messrs Nicholls and Henderson, as another smallish yard broke its Grade 1 duck at Sandown when the Jeremy Scott-trained Melodic Rendezvous (h145p) maintained his upward profile by winning the Tolworth Hurdle by four-and-a-half lengths from the choicely-bred Pendra (h139p). The time for the Tolworth compared very favourably with that of the handicap won by Lord of House (h132) later on the same card, so it looks form to view positively. Indeed, fourth-placed Court Minstrel (h138p) shaped a good deal better than the result suggests and remains one to be interested in, particularly if granted more of an emphasis on speed - the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury appeals an ideal target for him should connections opt to exploit a lenient-looking handicap mark.

Timeform's top-rated juvenile hurdlers:

FAR WEST 140p
IRISH SAINT 138p
SWNYMOR 133p
SAMETEGAL 132p
VASCO DE RONCEROY 131
KASHMIR PEAK 130p
MEGALYPOS 130+
RUACANA 130+
L'UNIQUE 129
CAID DU BERLAIS 128

Look out for Brand new features with Timeform Race Passes - In-Play Hints, Running Notes & Warning Horses. Find out more at timeform.com.