Handicappers' Corner

Handicappers' Corner: Certify and Rosdhu Queen both below-par winners of HQ Group 1s

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Handicappers' Corner: Certify and Rosdhu Queen both below-par winners of HQ Group 1s
Certify: winner of the Fillies' Mile

Certify is quoted generally at single figures for the One Thousand Guineas, but she is currently below both the mean (116) and median (117) rating that has been required to win that race in the last five years.

The Fillies' Mile and Cheveley Park took centre stage at Newmarket this weekend, but neither proved particularly strong. David Johnson explains in more detail.

As far as 2-y-os go, there's little doubt that the autumn is the most interesting time of their season. Potential Derby horses get their first taste of the racecourse in big-field back-end maidens, and the pecking order amongst the very best begins to come clear. The weekend action at Newmarket helped in that regard for all a standout filly is yet to emerge.

Current top of the pile is Certify. The Mahmood Al Zarooni-trained filly stretched her unbeaten run to four when easily landing the odds in Friday's Fillies' Mile, beating Roz by four and a half lengths with the rest in a bunch in behind.

This was a weak Fillies' Mile though, and it is unlikely Certify had to improve much upon her May Hill run, and a lowish view has been taken of the form. Race standards would point to a four-and-a-half-length Fillies' Mile winner being rated in the 115-119 region, but Certify has been allotted a figure of 113, in part as a result of prior-ratings standards, which are compiled taking into account the previous form of Certify and her opposition, which point to an even lower figure.

Certify is quoted generally at single figures for the One Thousand Guineas, but she is currently below both the mean (116) and median (117) rating that has been required to win that race in the last five years.

Whoever Certify's main opposition proves to be next spring, it's unlikely to emerge from the Cheveley Park, which was, rather like the Fillies' Mile, a below-par renewal. The Cheveley Park field finished well bunched, there was less than three lengths separating the first eight, and it produced a winning timefigure of just 80.

Rosdhu Queen was the clear top-rated on Timeform figures coming into the race, and didn't need to improve on the form she'd already shown. She remains rated 109p, and was credited with a performance rating of 107 on Saturday, the lowest awarded to a Cheveley Park winner since Wannabe Grand's 105 in 1998.

At least in winning the Royal Lodge, Steeler showed a bit more to be positive about even if he was well placed the way it was run. His performances at seven furlongs had suggested improvement would be forthcoming at a mile and he duly showed as much. His rating increases to 115p, and with the prospect of further improvement, he should make his presence felt in the Racing Post Trophy.

The Beresford Stakes in Ireland has proved a good pointer to that race in recent seasons, and Battle of Marengo could bid to emulate St Nicholas Abbey who won them both for Ballydoyle in 2009. He also has a rating now of 115p for beating Orgilgo Bay by three and a half lengths.

The most eye-catching winner at the Curragh over the weekend though was Viztoria who won the listed Blenheim Stakes by seven and a half lengths from Snow Queen. Wide margin winners on soft ground aren't always what they seem, but it's still difficult not to take the view that Viztoria is one of the best fillies of her generation, and she's earned a rating of 112p. Her pedigree suggests she should have no problems with seven furlongs-plus either.

There wasn't a great deal to report away from the 2-y-o's at the Cambridgeshire meeting, the Joel Stakes went to the tough Penitent, who ran to 120 in holding of the 119-rated Side Glance, whilst Bronze Angel won the feature handicap, stepping up on the form he showed in the Britannia to earn a new rating of 108. The best winning handicap performance of the weekend however was that put up by Face The Problem at Haydock, and he's proved most progressive this year, now rated 118.

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