Handicappers' Corner: Camelot beaten as Al Kazeem gains Group 1 win

The first classics of the season were held in Ireland this weekend, Magician strengthening Aidan O'Brien's stranglehold on the Irish 2000 Guineas, whilst Just The Judge provided Charles Hills and Qatar Racing with their first classic in the fillies equivalent, but most eyes were on the Tattersalls Gold Cup where Al Kazeem turned over the odds-on favourite.

'Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.' Matthew 7:15 probably wasn't penned with the analysis of horse racing in mind, but it holds true, that some horses, and performances, don't always turn out as they seem.

Less than a year ago, Camelot was an unbeaten Derby winner, bidding to become the first horse since Nijinsky to win the Triple Crown. But since his workmanlike Irish Derby win, he's been beaten in three of his four starts, the sole victory his workmanlike success in the Mooresbridge Stakes.

Is it the case that Camelot was always a wolf in sheep's clothing, or simply that he's not the force he was last year? As so often the case, it's more a grey area than black or white, with the truth perhaps somewhere in between.

Both traditional form and time analysis independently support the view that Camelot's Derby win was worth a rating of 128, but 128 isn't a high rating for a wide-margin Derby winner, remembering Workforce, Authorized and Motivator were all rated higher for their Derby wins. 

Bidding to get back to winning ways at Group 1 level in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, Camelot could finish only second to his one realistic rival, finishing a length and a half behind Al Kazeem. Although Camelot came into the race with his Derby rating of 128, his figure has now been reduced to 125, whereas Al Kazeem improves to 127.

The ratings of Al Kazeem and Camelot come about as a result of taking a lowish view of the Tattersalls Gold Cup. Race standards would point to a rating in the low 130s, but given the circumstances, in particular the steady pace, more evidence is required for a rating that high to be awarded. Hopefully Al Kazeem will get a clear run with his racing this year and fully prove his worth.

The previous afternoon, Magician provided Aidan O'Brien and his son Joseph with a third consecutive Irish 2000 Guineas, coming home three and a half lengths clear of stable companion Gale Force Ten with Trading Leather a further length and a half back.

Top-rated on 118 coming into the contest, Magician still showed a good deal of improvement, and is now rated 125p. He had given the impression at Chester when winning the Dee Stakes that he'd stay a mile and a half and now looks the best Ballydoyle prospect for the Derby. 

In terms of current weight-adjusted Derby ratings, Dawn Approach sets the standard on 146, Magician is second in on 139p with his stablemates Battle Of Marengo (134p) and Ruler Of The World (131p) next in.

The Irish 1000 has a similar look to the Newmarket version, the form rated some way short of the level achieved by the first two from the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches. Just The Judge was beaten by only half a length at Newmarket, and barely had to improve to go one better at the Curragh, increasing her rating from 113 to 114 and Sky Lantern in turn goes up 1lb to 115.

The highlight of the action in Britain was the Temple Stakes, run at Haydock for the sixth time. Kingsgate Native was able to follow up his success in 2010, but the bare result doesn't tell the full story, with both the second and third unlucky on the day.

Kingsgate Native has struggled for consistency in recent seasons, but a rating of 120 confirms he retains most of his ability, his rating peaking at 124 in 2008 and 2009. He had the run of the race more than the second and third though and will struggle to confirm the placings with Swiss Spirit and Reckless Abandon, and the have been rated accordingly, Swiss Spirit now 123+ and Reckless Abandon 121+.

Swiss Spirit was on the back foot after badly hampered at the start and was forced to switch a furlong out, but finished strongly, likely to have won in a few more strides. Reckless Abandon did best of those to race in the smaller group that raced far side. Both look safer bets to be in contention at Royal Ascot.

Get open access to Timeform data for just £2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!