Royal Ascot Tips for Wednesday: Derby hero Adayar vulnerable over 10 furlongs

• Yarmouth winner's odds are unrealistic

• Joseph O'Brien colt looks each-way value

• Dettori's mounts almost certain to be shorter in running

---

There are many reasons to lay a horse, but one that has worked for me the last 20 years is laying a fancied horse that is being asked to do something it hasn't done before.

It could be a Group 2 or 3 horse running in a Group 1. It could be a handicapper running off its highest mark.

Today's lay, though, is neither of these, as every once in a while a price doesn't look right - at least to my eyes

Royal Ascot - 14:30: Lay Born To Rock

The field for the Queen Anne Stakes at 14:30 is made up of 17 previous winners and 11 maidens.

As a layer, I asked myself why are Born To Rock and Beautiful Diamond so much shorter than the rest - which they were on Monday evening.

What had they done that the other 15 winners hadn't to justify being around 4/1, 6.611/2 on the Exchange?

The answer in Born To Rock's case was 'not much.'

She made all at Yarmouth under Robert Tart - hugely underrated - and beat three fillies that have run appallingly since.

Jiwin was 5th of 10 at Doncaster; Mirroring was last of 10 at Kempton; Mantra was 8th of 10 at Nottingham.

You can make the valid point: ''She could only beat the ones that lined up in the race, and she did so conclusively'' but you could say that of many others in the Queen Anne.

Beautiful Diamond was impressive at Nottingham (where Mantra was 15 lengths back); Relief Rally won readily at Salisbury and Windsor; Got To Love A Grey has won a Listed at York.

Add in the Vichy winner, Balsam, and the US contingent - Bundchen, Crimson Advocate, and Cynane - and it's not hard to see Born To Rock, the original forecast favourite in the Racing Post, finishing out of ther first three.

It was not a surprise to see Born To Rock drifting out to 5/1 from 7/2 on the Sportsbook.

Lay her for a win 7.06/1 - if you are happy (I have) - otherwise lay her to finish out of the 1-2-3, which should be around 2.89/5.

---

Royal Ascot - 16:20: Lay Adayar

Since the rain hit Ascot on Monday morning there have been a few price changes.

Adayar is the new 2/13.00 favourite for the Prince Of Wales' Stakes at 16:20, though that is not the case on the Exchange.

Luxembourg is 3.412/5, Adayar 3.929/10, Bay Bridge 4.57/2 and My Prospero 4.77/2.

Why am I happy to lay Adayar? Well, his Group 1 wins back in 2021 were over 12 furlongs in the Derby and the King George and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes a month later here at Ascot. As good as you can get over that trip in the UK, and he was subsequently fourth in the Arc.

Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, in contrast, are dedicated 10-furlong horses that won the two most significant races last autumn over the trip.

Last time out Luxembourg and Bay Bridge fought out the finish to the Tattersalls Gold Cup at The Curragh and they may well have thre finish to themselves again.

Were the Prince Of Wales' over 12 furlongs, I would consider napping Adayar, but over the shorter trip, I think he'll be third best.

---

Royal Ascot - 17:35: Back Etna Rosso each-way

No sooner do I start to look for a long-priced runner than its odds start to drop. It happened with Bobsleigh in the Coventry and with my fancy for the Queen's Vase at 17:35, Etna Rosso.

Originally 25/126.00, his current 14/115.00 on the Sportsbook is more realistic; he's 21.020/1 on the Exchange.

Joseph O'Brien has three in the race and Etna Rosso finished in front of his better-fancied stablemate St Vincents Garden 13.525/2 when he split the Aidan O'Brien-trained pair, Peking Opera 8.27/1 and Covent Garden at Naas.

I've always liked Dylan McMonagle as a jockey, and I wouldn't read anything into the fact that William Buick has been booked for St Vincents Garden.

The official handicapper reckons the race is Gregory's to lose and we will be seeing a Frankie Dettori flying dismount in the winner's enclosure.

Gregory is 2.727/4 from 3.02/1 and I wouldn't put you off him. Etna Rosso is simply the outsider that appeals most.

---

Royal Ascot - 17:35: Trade Gregory back-to-lay

In the course of a chat regarding Dettori's mounts at the weekend, a fellow Betfair Exchange layer made a good point.

He reckoned all Dettori's mounts will be over-bet, and go shorter still in running when they look likely to win.

And that was the case in the first yesterday, Inspiral was matched at 1.211/5 despite not hitting the front at any point, losing out to Triple Time.

As a tactic, you could possibly lay them all this week at 1.162/13 in the hope that one in four that reach those odds fails to win.

He is on Tamararama in the 15:05 9.89/1, Prosperous Voyage in the 15:40 5.04/1, Reach For The Moon in the 17:00 12.011/1, and Gregory in the 17:35 2.89/5.

You could back to lay all of them for a small stake but the banker would have to be Gregory.

I get the feeling that the public will be all over Gosden's unbeaten three-year-old, as he is bred to stay a mile and six.

As soon as he moves up in the straight, his odds will drop like a brick.

I would be happy to get in around 2.77/4 and out at 1.162/13, as he could look sure to go past the leaders but be outstayed.

---

Watch Racing...Only Bettor Royal Ascot Day 2 here...