Patrick Weaver has a 100 percent record with his recommended lays this week. He has two place lays, an each-way, and a trade on the third day of the royal meeting...
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Bluestocking has it all to do to be placed
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Courage Mon Ami is up in class and distance
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James Ferguson gelding is improving fast
Thursday is the weakest of the first three days of Royal Ascot in terms of class.
Three handicaps compared with Tuesday's and Wednesday's two. A single Group 1 compared with three on the opening day.
With one of yesterday's lays a non-runner, I'm going to select two again. Both are place lays.
It's not a coincidence that both are ridden by Dettori, as I reckon the pair are short prices because he is on them and bookies are anticipating them being backed.
Neither has the form to support its odds at the time of writing.
First up is Bluestocking in the Ribblesdale Stakes at 15:40, a Group 2 over 12 furlongs.
Last year's winner Magical Lagoon went on to take the Irish Oaks. Others that have won in the last decade, like Coronet and Magic Wand, ran well in defeat at Epsom, and the Ribblesdale was a consolation prize.
Bluestocking, in contrast, was beaten in a photo when favourite for a Listed race at Newbury.
She is currently rated 94 and 6/17.00 on the Sportsbook, compared to the 25/126.00 and 28/129.00 on offer for Lumiere Rock and Crown Princesse, rated 105 and 107 respectively.
Bluestocking is ranked 13th of the 19 by the official handicapper and 11th by the Racing Post.
It looks very much as if her owners, Juddmonte, wanted to have a runner, along the lines of ''If you're not in it, you can't win it.''
Given that, 6/1 is hard to justify. It was hard enough to understand why she was 15/2 at the start of the week.
The same logic has led me to Courage Mon Ami in the Gold Cup at 16:20.
Dettori's mount has been backed from 14s into [6-1] despite there being just one runner, Echoes In Rain, with a lower official rating.
Courage Mon Ami has won all three of his starts - two novice races last autumn and a handicap at Goodwood last month.
He has yet to race beyond a mile and three-quarters, the Gold Cup is two miles and a half.
So not only is he taking a huge leap in class, but he is also going up six furlongs in distance.
Over the long term, these sorts of place lays should not be missed.
Those he is up against are headed by Coltrane 4.67/2, a winner over course and distance that has since won a Group 2 and a Group 3; last year's St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov 5.49/2; and Subjectivist 11.010/1 who won the 2021 Gold Cup.
I could go on, but the bottom line is that Dettori's mount has got to improve 12lb to be placed.
I looked at all the races for an each-way bet and this is my short list:
14:30 - Mon Na Slieve 23.022/1, Thunder Blue 29.028/1 and The Fixer 42.041/1.
15:05 - Land Legend 22.021/1.
15:40 - Village Voice 20.019/1.
17:00 - Saxon King 25.024/1, Betterdaysrcoming 34.033/1 and Finn's Charm 42.041/1.
17:35 - Killybegs Warrior 80.079/1.
18:10 - Spanish Star 22.021/1.
I will have a small bet on Spanish Star in the 18:10, as he has a solid record over seven furlongs, but stall 22 doesn't seem ideal judged on the first day's results.
Instead, I will put up Land Legend in the King George V Handicap at 15:05, a race over 12 furlongs and not draw dependent.
James Ferguson has only been training four years, and already has five Group wins on his CV. He remains under the bookies' radar, though, and his runners often go off at longer odds than they should on their form.
Land Legend 22.021/1 is very much on the up and if he runs well will be aimed at the Irish St Leger.
I put him in my tracker after he finished second at 50/151.00 in what looked an average novices' race at Southwell in January.
Since then he won his first handicap at Newcastle off a mark of 76 and come second to Chesspiece at York off a rating of 87.
He has been put up another 2lb, which some will see as harsh given he was beaten just over a length, but I reckon he will again give a good account of himself.
Infinite Cosmos loves to race up with the pace, and the Ribblesdale at 15:40 is invariably a true-run race.
She was third in the Oaks trial at York, and missed the Classic to go for this race instead.
Sir Michael Stoute has done well with the family and ran her dam, Waila, in the 2013 Ribblesdale.
I see her trading shorter than her BSP during the race.