Royal Ascot Tips for Saturday: Tony Calvin's going to War with two bets on Day 5

• Two tips from Tony on Day 5 at Royal Ascot

• 34.033/1 Saint Lawrence fancied in Wokingham for new yard

• 8/19.00 Lion Of War has a big chance in Golden Gates

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Royal Ascot - 14:30: No Bet

The end of a long, hard punting week but one consistent theme has been my ducking of 2yo races and I am more than happy to do the same with the Chesham at 14:30.

Only three of the 17 runners have run more than once - and we even have a newcomer in here (Holloway Boy won this on debut last year) - so good luck if you can make head nor tail of the form.

I can't.

Pearls And Rubies heads the betting at 2/13.00 with the Sportsbook , and her run-style and pedigree suggests the step up to 7f will really suit, but usual rules apply.

You really have very little idea of what she is up against (and literally none when it comes to the debutante) so I struggle to see how people tip and punt in these juvenile contests. The bookies must luv 'em.

Royal Ascot - 15:05: No Bet

You can tell I am getting punting-weary as I am also not up for the fight of trying to solve the Jersey Stakes at 15:05.

Actually, that is not true. I simply tried and failed.

Even though he has a fair bit to find on the figures against Group winners, and a Grade 1 winner in the shape of Mysterious Knight, I thought Covey was hugely impressive when making all off a mark of 90 at Haydock last time.

However, the Frankel colt was never going to be missed in the market and the anticipated improvement has been more than factored into the market. The Sportsbook are actually top price at 9/43.25 and even that is deeply unattractive.

He faces at least five potential rivals for the lead, too.

I'll pass, especially as it is a nasty, tight-knit race on official ratings outside of him. If you can fancy one, you can fancy six.

Royal Ascot - 15:40: No Bet (Wellington advised ante-post)

I have backed Wellington ante-post in the QEII Jubilee Stakes at 15:40, as his Hong Kong form is surely a level above these.

However, he has shortened in the market - the Sportsbook cut him from 13/27.50 on Thursday into [9/2 on Friday morning - and I wasn't banking on Highfield Princess turning out again after her excellent run in the King's Stand.

And, in addition, it is clearly not a given Wellington can translate that form around the globe to Ascot.

Also, I am not kidding myself that I know anything about international sprint form, though Ryan Moore assures us in his Betfair column that the horse Wellington has been running well against (and actually beat last season, Lucky Sweynesse, would be a 1/31.33 poke in this race.

I am not forcing a bet for the sake of it, so I am afraid I am sitting the first three races out.

Royal Ascot - 16:20: No Bet

Actually, make that the first four as I think Hukum will win the Hardwicke at 16:20 - for all I am a big fan of Free Wind, and her Middleton win was obviously franked by Rogue Millennium earlier in the week - as he is a huge talent, but will he even be allowed to take his chance on quickening ground?

I am sure the course will do their best for him by watering but he has never raced on anything quicker than officially good ground since his debut on good to firm.

In addition, Timeform called it good to firm (officially good) when he could only finish fifth in the 2020 St Leger as a 7/24.50 chance, so I imagine Owen Burrows will be walking the course on Saturday morning and making a call afterwards.

And that has obvious ramifications when we are dealing with an eight-runner race at this stage.

I am not going to have a bet in the race until his participation is confirmed one way or the other, so I make no excuses for sitting this one out, too.

That is clearly a crucial piece of information.

Royal Ascot - 17:00: Back Saint Lawrence

Thank god for a handicap then, even if it is the 28-runner 6f Wokingham at 17:00. I'd never thought I would be relieved to see a sprint handicap.

And I have to give Saint Lawrence a spin on his first start for Archie Watson, with the blinkers re-applied.

He was a very good horse with Roger Varian, rated 105 at his peak, and some of his better efforts have been at this course, including a second in the Group 3 Pavilion Stakes here in April 2021.

In fact, he was also beaten just 6 lengths in the King's Stand last season when sporting blinkers and he is clearly well handicapped on that effort.

The headgear has been off for his last three starts but it is back on now and he hasn't run without promise on his two starts this season.

I thought he shaped very well when beaten just over 4 lengths in the Abernant on his reappearance and he was drawn on the wrong side last time, after which he was dropped a handy 3lb. He ran badly but track position could be given as a partial excuse.

Given the blinkers are back on, and a change of scenery could freshen him up, I am happy to row in with him at 34.033/1 or bigger.

The Sportsbook are 20/121.00 and paying six places if you want to back him there - he is bigger elsewhere, mind you - but I am playing win-only on the exchange. I would have liked to play six place each-way but I can hardly tip him at the current 20/121.00 when they are, rightly in my opinion, ducking him.

Royal Ascot - 17:35: Back Lion Of War

It is no surprise to see Canute head the betting in the Golden Gates handicap at 17:35, as he was very impressive when winning a Premier Handicap at Navan last time. He travelled really well through the latter part of the race and won pretty snugly.

The runner-up was backed on his debut for the dangerous Emmet Mullins, and that one pulled 3 ¼ lengths clear of a last-time-out Aidan O'Brien winner in third.

Okay, he is 11lb higher here but he is out of the dual Group 1 winner Alice Springs and he could easily be a lot better than his revised mark of 93.

I actually think he is a fair price at around 4/15.00 on the exchange, so I am not going to lose if he wins. I am backing him, and suggest you do as a saver, but I won't stick him up.

The race is obviously full of similarly unexposed 3yos, but Lion Of War catches the eye most and he is my main bet. Mind you, his price has ebbed away too (Canute opened up at 5/16.00 and 9/25.50 on Thursday) and the 12/113.00 and 10/111.00 was promptly taken about him.

He was well touted after winning his first two starts last year and he was sent off at 11/43.75 for the Group 2 Superlative Stakes.

He couldn't handle the step up in grade there and he has pretty much struggled since. He nearly blew it again over 1m1f on quick ground at Musselburgh last time, as he was very awkward coming out of the stalls, was hampered, and was soon racing in last, four lengths adrift of the field.

He still looked difficult to organise up the straight but he still managed to charge home and he was well on top at the line from Coco Jack, who also runs here, in a good time.

In the circumstances, connections must have been delighted with just a 4lb rise and I have to have him onside at 8/19.00 each-way, five places. The return to 1m2f will surely suit.

His ungainly racing style does bother me though, so I wouldn't want to go much lower than 8/19.00 in such a deep race. And you have to be worried about stall 17 for him, especially if he starts slowly again.

Royal Ascot - 18:10: No Bet

Nothing appeals in the Queen Alexandra at 18:10 - maybe Run For Oscar appealed most but the Sportsbook's 10/34.33 is no gift - so I am going to leave it there.

I hope you have had a profitable time of it when you assess your betting week come 6.15pm on Saturday afternoon.

Enjoy your weekend. I'm off to babysit the grandkid. He doesn't know it yet but he likes to watch racing on a Friday afternoon. Good lad.

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Read Ryan Moore on his Day 5 Royal Ascot rides here

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Watch Racing...Only Bettor Royal Ascot Day Five Preview