Tuesday Royal Ascot Tips: Eight value bets from Tony Calvin for day one

The pressure on Ascot's clerk of the course, Chris Stickels, to water heavily has been gathering apace in recent days - trainers and owners of high-profile horses are making non-runner noises already - and you wouldn't envy him his position.

He stuck down 10mm on Saturday, left the track alone on Sunday, and the plan is to water again on Monday. Just how much is to be confirmed.

If he gets it right, then we are on the quick side of good all week - which is perfect for punters, especially with the weather seemingly set fair all week (until Saturday that is, when racegoers could get very wet) - but we all know watering can, and has, created a track bias at this meeting in the past.

Two to back in betting without Baaeed

There will have to be one hell of a bias to get Baaeed beat in the Queen Anne at 14:30, though.

In fact, a hole may have to appear and he will have to fall down it.

It is great to have our superstars on show but his presence pretty much eradicates the traditional betting element, especially with just seven runners taking out the each-way option, but the Without Favourite market is definitely worth exploring.

Tactics will play a huge role in determining who comes second.

Order Of Australia, Chindit and Real World could go forward, but maybe they will adjust their run-styles accordingly in order to net second spot, so it's a hard call.

I had small each-way nibbles on Accidental Agent and Sir Busker last week , mainly because they were guaranteed runners with proven course and race form, so I naturally gravitated to them at the huge prices.

Both would ideally need a strong pace to aim at though, so therein lies the doubts with the pair.

You can argue that the 2018 winner (on fast ground) Accidental Agent is in the form of his life this season, despite being a 7yo, and he was the one I initially wanted to focus on.

That second off a mark of 109 in the Victoria Cup over 7f last time was a great effort, and the extra furlong here can only be a plus.

The problem I initially had was that he was only 11/2 in the Sportsbook's without favourite market, and I wanted a lot bigger. Mind you, I think they were probably right in trying to duck him completely.

But then I did a final sweep of the prices before filing this column (and double-checked when the publish button was pushed) and was rather taken aback when he was now on offer at 18s.

I know this is a small-stakes market, but that's a bet. And then some.
Back him at 18/1 each way, two places. I would suggest he remains a punt at 10/1+ on this line.

In fact, last year's third, and fellow course lover, Sir Busker also has to be similarly backed at 16s each-way.

Again, that price may soon disappear but I'd be happy with 10/1+. I just hope they get a decent pace to attack late on.

Show Respect warrants a bet

I was going to give the Coventry at 15:05 a swerve, such was the depth and unexposed nature of the race, but Show Respect appeals to me as a bet at 46.045/1 or bigger win-only on the Exchange.

He is 33/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook if you want to back him each-way. I suggest win-only.

This horse looked all at sea on his debut at Goodwood but he got the hang of things late on in finishing fourth to Royal Scotsman (one of the market leaders here) and I loved the way he went about his business late on when winning at Leicester last time.

He was carried across by the track by the runner-up, but once he got on an even keel and James Doyle straightened him up, he powered clear in the final furlong.

It is much quicker ground here, and into much deeper waters obviously, but I am happy to throw a small-stakes dart at him. I like to be drawn near the stands' rail at Ascot, so I am happy with stall 13 for him.

I gather he can be bought at that crazy eve-of-Ascot Goffs sale in London on Monday night, so it'd be interesting to see what he goes for.

Twilight Calls is sitting pretty but have a saver on Mooneista

Golden Pal and Nature Strip are drawn in 13 and 10 respectively in the King's Stand at 15:40, and at least those pace-setters are likely to miss the inevitable bumper cars in behind you are likely to get in this big field.

I am happy to take them on - for all their Group and Grade 1 exploits in their own countries make them the clear form choices - and I am very happy with my ante-post position on Twilight Calls at 14/1 each-way.

Simply put, I think we have not seen him to best effect on his last two starts, and I can see this stiff 5f, in a strongly-run race, suiting him down to the ground.

I see no need to go in again though - he looks too short now, if anything - but I will have a win-only saver on Mooneista at 21.020/1 or bigger.

This strong-traveller shaped better than the formbook suggests on heavy ground in the Commonwealth Cup here last year, and this better surface will suit, for all she has not raced on ground this quick since her debut.

She won her Group 2 at the Curragh on good ground last season and on another she day she may have got the race in the stewards' room last time as the fast-progressing sprinter Brad The Brief took her across the track.

She comes here in top nick then - they pulled well clear of the Abbaye winner A Case Of You last time, and that one went there on the back of a Meydan Group 1 win - and she could just get the pace set-up needed to see her post a career-best here.

Each-way alternatives for St James's Palace Stakes

Guineas winner Coroebus being in stall two gives the rest a fighting chance in the St James's Palace Stakes at 16:20 - he is beginning to look rather big at nearly 4/5 on the Exchange, though - and this is another race in which I have not veered away from my initial assessment when looking at the contest for the Racing Only Bettor Royal Ascot preview last Tuesday.

Back then, I highlighted Luhail and Bayside Boy as the each-way alternatives to the favourite.

Luhail will love the quick ground - both his Group 2 successes last season came on good to firm - and he has shaped seriously well in both the Greenham and when meeting trouble in the Guineas.

He is still a very fair price at around 25s (though he was double that last week) but Bayside Boy has still to be the premier bet here on price grounds alone, and he remains a 66/1 poke.

Back him at 66s each way with the Sportsbook. Any 40/1+ remains acceptable.

That price is an absolute insult when you look at his juvenile form - he was beaten just 2 ½ lengths in the Dewhurst, 1 3/4 lengths in the Vertem, as well as beating Reach For The Moon in the Champagne Stakes - and you can forgive him his comeback run in the French Guineas as he was drawn 14 of 15.

Quick ground is an unknown for him - actually that may not entirely be true as Timeform called it good to firm when he won on his debut at Newbury - and I seriously, seriously, and thrice seriously, don't get the price.

I am going to suggest a saver on Luhail at 34.033/1 or bigger, too. The price is also too good to resist, for all I am not entirely sold on his stamina.

Pair appeal in the 17:00

Back Make My Day at 20/1 each-way, five places, in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes at 17:00. I very much like the cut of his jib.

He has shaped as if this marathon trip was well trying on both 2m starts this season, and on each occasion he has not got a fair crack at the whip as regards running room, and still recorded two excellent efforts in second.
He bumped into a horse rated 7lb higher when second here and then he found all the trouble going on the inner at Goodwood last time.

His pedigree gives you hope the quicker ground will be okay, and it is very interesting to see the cheekpieces are going back on.

He has worn them once before, when winning for John Gosden in June 2019, and I really like his chances at the price.

I will have a saver on Arcadian Sunrise at 7/1 each-way, five places, though, even if this will be the quickest ground he has raced on.

He has shortened since Sunday (he was 9s in a place) but 7s and upwards is fine about a horse who shaped very well when fourth off this mark in the Chester Cup and has Harry Davies taking 5lb off.

I thought the Wolferton at 17:35 was one of the hardest races I had analysed all season, so I will leave that one to you.

And it is never a bad thing to sit out at least one race each day for punting purposes. A breather is always welcome.

I was going to fill my lungs for my one last gasp in the last though, as Benaud was a bet at 14/1 each way, five places, in the 1m6f handicap at 18:10.

There is serious confidence in Chester Cup winner Cleveland off a 5lb higher mark here - hence his sub-3/1 price - and if you want to ensure you don't lose on the race if he wins, I fully get that.

But, as I said, I was all set to make the case for Benaud at 14/1 each-way but he was withdrawn on Sunday afternoon after not having eaten up, so that plan was scuppered.

So I had a hunt for an alternative.

My old mate Not So Sleepy would prefer more dig and I decided I would sit this one out, though if one more horse comes out I will be backing the first reserve On To Victory at 33s.

I know he would want more ease too but he has run well on both starts here, shaped really well on his comeback at York, and is very fairly treated off 97.

If he gets in, he is a definite each-way bet at 33s, five places, but I obviously can't stick him up here now. Keep an eye out for another non-runner, though -

I may do an update and officially tip him if gets a run.

Good luck. Go Steady and go well.

Ante-post recommendation

Twilight Calls at 14/1 each way in King's Stand Stakes at 15:40

Profit and Loss (from March 26)

Staked: 118
Returns: 187.9pts
P/L: +69.9

Previous (April 14 2021 to March 25 2022)

P/L: + 183.1