Ascot Gold Cup Big Race Verdict: Gosden can deny O'Brien in Thursday staying feature

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Trawlerman favourite on Betfair Sportsbook

Between Aidan O'Brien and John Gosden, no other trainer bar Mark Johnston in 2021 has had a look in for this most prestigious of prizes since 2018, and the dynamic duo head the betting again for this year's search for gold.

O'Brien's Scandinavia is priced at 13/82.63 on the Betfair Sportsbook and Gosden's Trawlerman, last year's Ascot Gold Cup winner, is value at 7/24.50.

The upstart is the imposing specimen Rahiebb at 15/44.75.

No rain is forecast for Thursday and we can expect good to firm going again.

Best recent form of the contenders

Scandinavia is two-from-two this year following successes in the Vintage Crop at Navan and last time out at Leopardstown to lift the Saval Beg Levmoss Stakes.

Groundwise it was quicker at Leopardstown (officially good) and he displayed shades of Kyprios, a big strong Cup horse, and he's followed the Kyprios route too. The way he was first off the bridle certainly gave the impression of "The Kip mark II".

Interestingly he was sent off 2/91.22 last time and did hit a high of 1.412/5 in-running from his 1.211/5 BSP. He traded bigger too at Navan in-play. O'Brien said he's a big relaxed horse and always thought he had the stamina to deal with such a unique test.

Trawlerman has been kept off the track with what can only be described as an "unusual eye condition" and with the application of ski goggles, I kid you not, he is the de facto Edgar Davids of racing.

Davids, a midfielder with a pugnacious streak, played for a brilliant Dutch side before ending his career as player manager of Barnet. Famously, he watched training from the sidelines parked up in his Bentley.

Maybe Gosden will be parked from the side in his top level mode of transport to watch his star stayer, who loves Ascot and fast ground.

Scandinavia's two runs this term have hit Timeform figures of 116 and 117 with plusses, but the two runs are below the form of 120+ for his St Leger victory last year.

Trawlerman hasn't been seen this season but in his three 2025 runs, including this race, he hit TF race figures of 121+, 124 and 127+ (in this race the latter from 2025).

Rahiebb should not be underestimated. A runner-up to Scandinavia in last season's St Leger, he is a brute of a horse who has put on even more weight this year.

He won the Yorkshire Cup at the Dante meeting with a figure earned of 117+, and that surprisingly was the horse's first Black Type success.

Varian said earlier this month: "He's a beautiful model and a lovely stamp of a horse... He seems to be finding his strength and developing into the finished article.

"We're very excited about him in the short term, but also the medium and long term. We hope he can be a flag bearer for the yard over the next season or two."

Will he stay, that's the question?

Cadran winner has the tools to stay

Caballo De Mar and Al Riffa are in the next batch, according to the betting, with Al Riffa at 17/29.50 and Caballo De Mar at a juicy 10/111.00.

George Scott's Caballo was second to Sweet William in the Sagaro at the track earlier this season and wouldn't be good enough on that form, but he has subsequently landed a Group 1 in France - claiming the euros at Longchamp in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier over 2m.

Scott gave an interesting and thoughtful interview to the Racing Post recently about life and some of the hurdles he has faced since breaking onto the training scene. We rarely get a glimpse into the personal lives of those who send out the horses for our benefit.

His stayer had a breakout season in winning the Cadran last term at the Arc meeting - again in soft and over 2m4f, although his Vigier win was a falsely run affair and had Al Riffa behind that day.

Scott said of his main hope: "I'm very realistic about the race and I think there are two high-class four-year-olds at the head of the market. But my horse stays so well and they are going to have to go past him in the red zone."

They might well do that but that's where they have their question marks, whereas stamina-wise, Caballo has no question marks. Does he need the rain to excel?

Carmers the best of the outsiders

Carmers, a former Queen's Vase winner on good to firm last year, is likely to be Paddy Twomey's first Melbourne Cup runner this year and it appears the season is revolving around that.

Being trained for a specific race like that requires an element of speed more so than this, and this is where training regimes matter.

He was workmanlike at Down Royal last time with the first-time headgear, something Twomey touched upon with a great interview with the excellent and under-used Johnny Ward, as the trainer revealed the horse was getting cute and looking behind.

He will stay I am sure, but a slugger doesn't often win a Melbourne prize. At 20/121.00 he does look a little overpriced, but do I think he will win? No.

Where is the pace coming from?

Christophe Soumillon hasn't a ride in the race for Ballydoyle, and is probably undergoing some intensive physio for his neck with the way it was swivelling around on Tuesday looking for Ryan Moore. Soumillon known as "Super", could also be called "the Owl" for the skills of his head turning 180%.

A race without a Ballydoyle pacemaker? Surely not? Like leaving Keats out of an anthology of romantic poets.

Scandinavia was more forcefully ridden in the St Leger and mindful of his lazy streak, he has to be ridden prominently.

Trawlerman makes the running and that's the place for pace, and with his new goggles will be some sight from the front.

Rahieeb was outpaced in the St Leger last term from quite far back yet was ridden prominently at York and that's a better tactic.

Sweet William lost out to Dubai Future at Sandown last time, a race in which Rab Havlin was caught out by David Probert's excellent move on Dubai Future. But it's unlikely either of those are improving at their ages and both will be coming from off the pace.

He's one of the game's great characters - Sweet William, not Havlin - and Trawlerman tends to always get ahead of him and Dubai Future did finish third last year in the Gold Cup. But he doesn't make the frame for me.

Alan Dudman's 1-2-3

1) Trawlerman

2) Scandinavia

3) Caballo De Mar

With no Kyprios, Trawlerman can continue his hold on the staying ranks and groundwise he is well suited to the fast nature of the Ascot turf.

I like Rahieeb, but I don't want to get too carried away with the hype before I have seen him at a marathon trip, an accusation we cannot level at Caballo De Mar as a former Cadran winner.

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