Paul Nicholls: Pic looking better with each run and has big chance in Grade 2

• Out and Out stayer hard to beat at Kempton

• Pic D'orhy progressing well and has big chance

• Lovely handicap mark for Outlaw Peter

• Good run expected from progressive Knowsley Road

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Kempton

Strong stayer should be hard to beat

12:55- Makin'yourmindup

A nice prospect he is unbeaten in his two starts over hurdles at Chepstow where he has made all the running both times. An out and out stayer he will keep galloping all day, handles soft ground and should be hard to beat.

Soft enough for him but he could run well

13:30 - Enrilo

He was disappointing for the most part last season but I was looking for better from him when he fell on his comeback run at Wincanton in November. He was in very good shape that day and I am keen to get a confidence boosting clear round into him before he goes for better targets in the spring. While the ground is probably soft enough for Enrilo it's an easy three miles at Kempton and he could run tidily.

Progressing as I hoped and conditions will be fine

14:05 - Pic D'Orhy

He has loads of ability, has improved physically this season and has progressed as I hoped, winning nicely at this trip at Newton Abbot and Huntington. The ground is probably soft enough for him, too, but Kempton is not a stiff track and I think he should handle conditions fine.

Might wait for another day if it gets testing

14:05 - Saint Calvados

He was too keen for his own good at Ascot ridden for the first time by his new owner David Maxwell so we are trying a hood in the hope that he settles better. Saint Calvados does like nice ground and wants dropping in this time but if the going gets really testing I might suggest to David on Saturday that we wait for another day.

Lovely handicap mark and he must go well if handling conditions

14:40 - Outlaw Peter

He hasn't looked back since a wind op a year ago, and ran a cracker in the Persian War at Chepstow in October which saw him raised 12lbs to a mark of 130. He then hacked up by 19 lengths in a novice hurdle at Exeter two months ago. I think 130 is a lovely handicap mark for Outlaw Peter and have deliberately kept him for the Lanzarote.

He was second on heavy ground in his bumper and it's just coincidence that we have run him on good ground. If he handles conditions at Kempton he must go well.

Goes well fresh but has it all to do

14:40 - Red Risk

He picked up an injury at a Haydock in May and amazed me by winning readily on his return at Newbury in November. He was raised 6lbs afterwards and is very good fresh which is why I haven't run him since Newbury. While he seems to have come on plenty for that run and loves soft ground I suspect he has it all to do even with Freddie Gingell claiming a valuable 7lbs.

Best Chance:

Pic D'Orhy - 14:05 Kempton. "He looks better over fences with each run and has strong claims in this Grade 2 Chase."

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Warwick

Ready to take a step forward

13:15 - Friend or Foe

He ran well in the Castleford Chase at Wetherby over Christmas until tiring late on. He jumps and travels in his races, is at his best on soft ground and is ready to take a step forward now.

Impressive debut over fences and has another big chance

13:50 - Complete Unknown

He landed the EBF Final in style at Sandown in April, did really well over the summer and made a highly impressive winning debut over fences at Ffos Las just before Christmas. He has a lovely chance ridden by Lorcan Williams who won on him at Sandown.

Smart and progressive and I expect a good run

14:25- Knowsley Road

He won his bumper at Chepstow before making a bright start over hurdles by winning at the same track in November and December where he made just about all the running both times over two and a half miles. The form of his races has worked out fine, he's a smart, progressive novice and I expect a good run from him in this highly competitive Grade 2 Hurdle.

Could be a few lbs too high in handicap

15:00 - Threeunderthrufive

My hopes of a big show from him in the Coral Gold Cup ended at the first fence when he parted company with Adrian Heskin. He was then on course for the Coral Welsh National until conditions turned attritional. I've dropped the cheek pieces he wore at Newbury and appreciate that top weights don't have a great record in the Classic. But it is not the most competitive renewal and I'd like to think that Threeunderthrufive has a sporting each way chance though I suspect he is 5 or 6lbs too high in the handicap.

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