Alan Dudman's York Big Race Verdict: Take a punt on outsider at 20/1 for Yorkshire Oaks upset

• Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks the highlight on Day Two of the Ebor meeting

• Both market leaders weak on the Sportsbook

• Alan Dudman delivers his latest big race verdict

Listen to Day Two York Ebor Festival Racing Only Bettor Tips...

Eight in the Yorkshire Oaks

I am rather disappointed that my ante-post selection Sumiha wasn't declared, as I thought she was a strong stayer on paper. The impending quick ground has put Dermot Weld off and there'll be another day for her, but at least eight are in and three places on the Sportsbook is a real tempter and floater here.

With Bluestocking elsewhere at York and Emily Upjohn hardly in form, the race has a very open feel to it with two at 11/43.75 at the top of the betting.

We're dealing with quick ground, with the course record from the Acomb and Juddmonte International both broken on Wednesday.

Content and Queen Of The Pride both easy on the Sportsbook

Both Content and Queen Of The Pride were pushed out in the betting on Wednesday, with both mirroring each other - a case of copie conforme if ever there was.

Content seems very versatile in terms of the ground, but she's not the most the consistent. However, both of her disappointing efforts from her first two starts in the season were both over 1m in the French 1,000 Guineas and the Coronation at Royal Ascot.

She seems to have found her niche at 1m4f, as she gave an indication she'd stay with her run in the Pretty Polly over 1m2f, ergo producing her best run of the campaign last time in the Irish Oaks.

The three-year-old is now atoning for her early season runs, but she's exposed enough and has been highly tried.

Queen Of The Pride is progressing fast, and it says a lot about her trajectory that she is shorter in the betting than John Gosden's Emily Upjohn.

She's entered into the 1m4f ranks in a blaze of diamonds this season and produced an excellent 3L win in the Lancashire Oaks last time.

Gosden Jnr, Thady said: "You could see here today she's definitely picked up a bit from last time out. It's possible [the Yorkshire Oaks]. We'll see how she comes out of it, but she's done absolutely nothing wrong so far and she's a smart filly."

A nice flat track with an emphasis on speed suits her, and the ground won't be a problem. Gosden has farmed the Lancashire Oaks in recent seasons and has four Yorkshire Oaks winners with Enable (twice), The Fugue and Dar Re Mi too.

She was held up at Haydock last time and produced the two strongest finishing sectionals in the race at 11.42 seconds, 12.25 and 13.16. Indeed, that 11.42 at the tenth furlong was the quickest in the entire race. She is in full muster now.

There's no need to candy coat her runs, on the clock she stays, and her two wins on times this season were on good and good to firm.

I suppose the only doubt is the rise in class and a first crack at Group 1 company, but this doesn't look the deepest in terms of quality.

Are we overlooking a Classic winner?

Not to start with a Classic winner could well be a mistake on my part, as You Got To Me won the Irish Oaks last time with a beating of Content into second.

Her trainer Ralph Beckett once tweeted out the letter "R", and that was it. He should have tweeted a "W" for the win after that, a second Classic in Ireland for the R Man after Westover's Irish Derby win.

Beckett's nerves were no doubt soothed with her keen-going ways at the Curragh. He said: "She settled really well today. One thing we did differently was put the tongue-strap on her and it gave her something extra to think about and it made the difference.

"Hector had to battle for every pocket and every bit of ground; but that's her, she's a battler. To do what she did at Lingfield, to run well at Epsom and again at Ascot, and then come here, all since the beginning of May, takes a bit of doing."

He added: "We have seen a difference in her over the last fortnight. She travelled over really well and got here in really good shape. She is in pretty much everything bar the St Leger. She could go for the Yorkshire Oaks and I think York will suit her well."

She was fourth at Epsom in the Oaks, but the track in Ireland really did play to her strengths.

Is Lava Stream overpriced?

I quite fancied Lava Stream in the Irish Oaks, and she was sent off 7/18.00 at the Curragh. She lacked her usual fluency in the race with the way she usually travels, but was never nearer than midfield and beaten 11L.

She is better than that, and while my first impression was that she might not have stayed, she did finish second on fast ground at Ascot over 1m4f in the Ribblesdale, and was only beaten a neck behind Port Fairy. Indeed, Port Fairy has St Leger and Long Distance Cup entries later in the season, so she clearly is all stamina, and the run at Ascot needs upgrading a little.

The time was a fast one too that day in the Ribblesdale, and Lava Stream was ahead of You Got To Me that day too.

Plus in terms of tactics, the move to come from the back to make a challenge might have been the tipping point between success and failure. Two of her final three sectionals were actually quicker than Port Fairy's, and that's something to admire at a stiff track like Ascot.

Her in-running price at Ascot was 1.21/5.

Delving further into her times, the grey filly produced 10.89 and 11.02 sectionals three from home and two from home at Goodwood earlier in the season, and with the possibility of more of an emphasis on speed, I can see her outrunning her odds.

Lava Stream also holds an entry on Champions Day over 1m4f, so connections might not be giving up the ghost totally in terms of the distance.

Emily Upjohn on a recovery mission

A famous quote from George Orwell went something like this: "Any life you view from inside is a series of defeats", and life of Emily Upjohn has been just that, a series of losses, and the man inside (Gosden) knows.

She was beaten 10L in her bid to win the Coronation Cup on her first run of the season at Epsom - a late start and one what was needed, as Gosden said after the race. Which wasn't entirely helpful to punters in the dark beforehand.

At the start of the season, the trainer had said she was a mile-and-a-half filly, so it was a brave move to go down to 1m2f for her following two starts at Goodwood and in the Pretty Polly. It's just been a bit of an odd campaign.

She wilted in the finish at the Curragh and was poor in the Nassau. Back up to 1m4f at York will suit, but it's very difficult to get a handle on her.

Gosden's fillies were slow to come to hand, yes, but there have been too many excuses (ready-made) for her, and the rating tells you she is operating 5lb shy of her best.

Her best would be good enough here for sure, but I don't like the price at 10/34.33.

The outsiders

The Sportsbook is a bit sniffy with that Ribblesdale form clearly, as Port Fairy is a 25/126.00 shot and has been deserted by Ryan Moore who rides Content. Wayne Lordan is the Steve Heighway here.

She's had the visor on for her last two starts but was a flop in the Irish Oaks. Even though Lava Stream disappointed in that, she wasn't as bad as Port Fairy.

Mistral Star is rated 106 and improving, but to her name so far is a Listed race in the Aphrodite at Newmarket, and while she stays and travels and is bred to be an absolute top-notcher, she hasn't achieved nearly as much as the others and was beaten at Ayr on her reappearance.

Not to downgrade the racing on the west coast of Scotland, but not many would be beaten at Listed level there and win a Group 1 a few starts later.

Conclusion

It's a race that poses more question marks than answers and I want to chance the 20s on Lava Stream, and give her another dart of staying and putting right the Curragh wrong.

A smooth-traveller with a bit of panache, the York layout will suit her and with three places, I'd rather go with her each-way than to bet on either Emily Upjohn or Queen Of The Pride. Both of those stay well, and I toyed with Emily Upjohn and flirted briefly with having a bet.

Now read more tips and previews for York's Ebor festival from Betfair's team of writers here