Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Royal Playwright fancied to outrun his odds in York Dante Stakes

• Aidan O'Brien has dominated Classic trial seaon

• O'Brien's The Lion In Winter favourite for York's Dante Stakes

• Kevin Blake is taking him on with 18/119.00 Royal Playwright

We are deep into Classic trial season and the Al Basti Equiworld Dante Stakes (15:45) at York is one of the last chances for a colt to throw their hat into the ring for the Derby.

The theme of trial season so far has been Aidan O'Brien sending out everything bar the stable cat to win in Britain or Ireland and the widespread expectations are that this theme might well continue at York on Thursday.

Prominent racers suggest pace will be a good one

The Dante has attracted a field of 11 runners and the pace map suggests that it should be run at an even or stronger tempo.

Alpine Trail (9) has made all to win his last two starts, including a Listed race over a mile-and-a-quarter at Newmarket on his latest start. Sea Scout (1) helped push the pace when making a winning return in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. Wimbledon Hawkeye (7) tends to race prominently and is stepping up in trip from a mile here. Devil's Advocate (6) has been prominent in his last two starts. 

Favourite has fitness and stamina to prove

Understandably, much of the pre-race focus will be on the Aidan O'Brien-trained The Lion In Winter. The son of Sea The Stars won a maiden at the Curragh prior to breaking the track record in the Acomb Stakes at York last season, stamping himself as one of the most promising two-year-olds in Europe.

Unfortunately, we didn't get to see him again after that, as a setback ruled him out of the Dewhurst Stakes. He reportedly had another hold-up earlier this season that has meant that his trainer has had to rush him to this target in an effort to get a run into him before the Derby. A rushed preparation is never ideal and his connections have sounded repeated alarms that he won't be anything like cherry ripe for his return to action. 

Mind, it won't be just his fitness that is tested in the Dante, as how far he will stay is a very interesting question to probe. On pedigree alone, there would be no doubt whatsoever that The Lion In Winter will not just stay an extended mile-and-a-quarter, but that he should also have no issue with staying a mile-and-a-half. However, pedigree is just one piece of the puzzle.

The Lion In Winter looked notably green and didn't travel all that well on his way to making a winning debut at the Curragh, but that experience seemed to sharpen him up significantly, as he produced a much pacier performance in the Acomb, travelling strongly and quickening up well for just hands-and-heels riding.

As well as that, analysis of his mechanics reveal that he is quite a fast strider for one with his pedigree and will need to show an ability to drop his strides-per-second to a lower level in the early and middle section of the race if he is to give himself a chance to carry his form over longer trips.

Thus, with so many warning signs on display, it makes it an easy decision for me to take him on with one at a bigger price. Class can overcome most things and The Lion In Winter might well be a star in the making, but this just doesn't appeal as being a wise day to side with him at around 1/12.00.

Step back up in trip and return to turf to suit Royal Playwright

The alternative to him that makes the most appeal to me is the Andrew Balding-trained Royal Playwright.

He has more than his share of pedigree power being by Lope De Vega out of Arabian Queen who famously took Golden Horn's unbeaten record when beating him over this course-and-distance in the Juddmonte International. Royal Playwright looked a potential star himself when putting up a very strong performance on the clock on his debut at Salisbury, but circumstances have often conspired against him since and that remains his only victory.

However, Royal Playwright has always looked like one that will thrive over middle-distances and with him having got his seasonal return out of the way with an adequate run over a mile on the all-weather at Newcastle, this step up in trip and return to turf promises to suit him ideally.

His current price illustrates the extent to which he is being underestimated by the market and he represents a very appealing win/place or each-way bet in what promises to be a very informative contest.

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