Kevin Blake

Kevin Blake's Big Race Verdict: Take a flyer on 9/2 Flight in Irish 1000 Guineas

Betfair Tipster Kevin Blake
Kev Blake gives his Big Race Verdict on the Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh

It's time for the Fillies' Classic at the Curragh on Sunday as the 1000 Guineas takes centre stage. Kevin Blake is here with his Big Race Verdict...

  • Plenty of rain around so ground could turn on soft side

  • Those ridden handy could have a decent advantage

  • Kevin Blake fancies Flight to fly home in his Big Race Verdict


The Classic action keeps on coming at the Curragh on Sunday with the Tattersalls Irish 1,000 Guineas (15:40) taking centre stage.

Once again, all involved will be delighted with the field that the race has attracted, with serious players from the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket coming over to take on a bunch of progressive Irish-trained performers to ensure a really competitive contest for us all to get stuck into.

Soft ground possible with rain forecast

Now, the first thing to consider here is the ground. There is an oft-heard quip in Irish racing that if rain is needed, schedule a big meeting at the Curragh and the heavens will duly open. Well, after a prolonged dry spell, the rain has arrived just in time for the Irish Guineas meeting.

They got 3mm during racing on Friday, 1mm overnight into Saturday and at the time of writing, they are expecting 3-5mm during racing on Saturday and potentially up to 10mm overnight into Sunday. Given that they had been watering during the week, this represents a serious amount of rain and is likely to send it very much onto the softer side.

Steadily run race should suit those ridden handy

Away from the weather reporting and onto the form, what struck me when I got stuck into the race was that potential pace looks light on paper.

January (2) has often been prominent. Flight (6) has often raced prominently and made the running on a couple of occasions last season. Duty First (7) helped push the pace in the 1000 Guineas, but she weakened quite badly on what was her first start over 8f and they might not be quite as forward with her here.

California Dreamer (8) has made the running and been prominent before, but ran her best race yet under a more patient ride last time. Lake Victoria (3) made all win the Cheveley Park Stakes, but has generally been ridden with more patience.

In the interests of a well-run race that is most likely to produce a fair result, the hope will be that Aidan O'Brien uses January to put pace to the race for the benefit of Lake Victoria, but that looks far from certain. With pace tending to hold up well on all tracks at the Curragh, a steadier-than-par pace will make it even tougher for those ridden with patience, so my inclination is to lean towards those that are likely to be handier.

British raider has big advantage is she can get to the front

With that in mind, my preference is for the Ollie Sangster-trained Flight.

The daughter of Siyouni is from a lovely German family and has progressed in a very likeable manner thus far. She has essentially improved with each and every one of her six starts to date.

She acquitted herself well in Group company at the backend of last season without threatening to win one, but she returned from her winter break a much-improved filly to run a huge race in the 1000 Guineas. Despite being 28/129.00 and initially racing away from the main action on the track, she made her way across to the action and only lost out to Desert Flower by a length at the line.

Flight is more than entitled to come on from that run and continue her progression here. The rain will hold no fears for her at all based on her pedigree and action, which is not something that can be said for many of her rivals.

Most importantly, she has the tactical versatility to go buck forward to race at least prominently and potentially make her own running which could well be a serious advantage given the tactical shape of this race.

Ollie Sangster is one of the most promising young trainers anywhere in Europe and while he has yet to strike in Group 1 company, he has rattled the crossbar a couple of times already and his breakthrough might well come right here in a Classic.


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