Kevin Blake

Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Back Ponntos to cause a King George shock on Friday

Australian sprinter Asfoora
Asfoora is a 3/1 chance to follow up her Royal Ascot win at Goodwood on Friday

Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict focusses on Glorious Goodwood on Friday with the Group 2 King George Qatar Stakes the feature race of the afternoon...


Listen to Day Four Glorious Goodwood Tips on Racing Only Bettor...


King George Stakes looks open

It seems too long since Battaash was blitzing his rivals in the King George Stakes over the flying five furlongs. His four wins on the spin in consecutive years meant he was "The Chief" around here and very much like The Heptameron - the jewel in French literature, or Sussex.

Sadly no jewels it seems in the sprinting ranks in recent seasons, but without a Battaash, it is far more of an appealing punting race plus there are four places on the Sportsbook for Friday's big race which adds a bit more lustre and a sense of awe.

I get the feeling something at a big price could run a massive race around the Sussex circuit.


Can the Aussie mare uphold form versus Big Evs?

Asfoora was the Queen of Royal Ascot when winning the King Charles III, so there's no denying her chances in backing up here, but two factors are in play here. Was Ascot her number one target and with the dearth of top quality sprinters, has her trainer Henry Dwyer chanced his arm staying for some pot hunting?

The other, and probably more salient is the different nature of the tracks. Ascot is stiff, as stiff as you can get for a sprinter, and transferring her run style to a circuit of pure speed raises a question mark with three confirmed fast front-runners in opposition.

However, the 5f ranks do not possess anything you'd fear. I would like a bigger price if I am honest and the 3/14.00 doesn't quite float my boat. I can't get too bogged down in the draw with her pitch in ten - as the draw at Goodwood will end up tying you in knots.

Big Evs (pictured below) was third at Ascot and I can see why Mick Appleby's star 3yo is fancied to turn the tables here at a shorter price of 5/23.50 against Asfoora as a quick five on good to firm is like the surfer's golden hour conditions.

He is also the part of the pace angle troika with Live In The Dream in there too, and Tom Marquand will likely let rip here and burn them all off, or least try and see off last year's Nunthorpe winner early. With track winning form too from his Molecomb success, there's not much to dislike, and he's certainly better on fast ground despite winning form on soft.

Big Evs 1280.jpg

Appleby said post-Ascot: "He's rapid and he's only going to improve with age," so there we have it.


Can Kerdos improve on last year's fifth?

Kerdos was fifth in this race last year and has 3L to find with Asfoora from Ascot, but did beat the "semi Wonder from Down Under" at Haydock - although Asfoora needed that run.

Clive Cox has such a good touch with sprinters, it's surprising he has failed to win this race and Kerdos' form ties in with Makarova from 12 months ago too in the race, but that reflects the division.

He beat Live In The Dream at Haydock in the Temple, and Kerdos at 14/115.00 is probably not the worst each-way bet here with the four places. It's hard to entertain Live In The Dream on current form, as Adam West's sprinter hasn't looked the same force.


Ponntos another potential front runner

Ponntos is another speedball who likes to dominate and he'll be out wide in 13 with Asfoora on his inside - although that might just suit the Australian against the Gallic scorcher.

The French 6yo won a Group 2 on his own patch last time in the Prix du Gros-Chene, but that was on heavy and Friday will be a totally different ball game with the fast ground.

He's the classic back-to-lay bet here from his price of 16/117.00 and would present an opportunity to trade in and out if that's your thing. However, with Goodwood notorious for hard-luck stories, jockey Sabina Mokrosova's lack of know-how around here adds to the puzzling melting pot.

The price factors in the risk in my opinion.


Conclusion

As Goodwood over 5f dictates, speed is everywhere here. Even Desperate Hero at a big price can sit up with the pace. Live In The Dream doesn't look the seem horse since his Nunthorpe win, and with him and Big Evs perhaps the quickest I am going to back Ponntos each-way with the four place angle on the Sportsbook.

I doubt the French sprinter will be held up, and with his style, will certainly be fleet of foot to keep tabs on the leaders, and with form in testing ground over five-and-a-half furlongs, might have enough to stretch out beyond the pace.

The ground poses a question mark but at 16/117.00, that's too big for a French Group 2 winner.


Now read more previews from Betfair's team of writers for Glorious Goodwood


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