Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Absurde has strong claims but keep an eye on 11/1 outsider each-way

• Chester's Listed Stakes the main action on ITV

• Are Absurde and Cauis Chorister beatable?

• Alan Dudman sides with a trainer looking for a third win in recent times

Absurde Superboost

We know the Betfair Sportsbook like to take risks, well today's superboost can only be described as absurd, or should that be Absurde?

A strong favourite to land the Chester Stakes at 15:15, Willie Mullins' Cheltenham Festival winner is now 1/12.00 (from 1/31.33) to finish in the top three in today's Listed contest. To take advantage of this super-boosted price just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded bet slip.

Listen to this week's Racing Only Bettor for more tips...

Chester on ITV takes centre stage of sorts

With the Group races at Sandown not floating a punting boat, Chester gets the honour for Big Race Verdict duties and the Listed Chester Stakes over 1m7f looks more of a betting heat - especially with the eight runners and three places on the Sportsbook.

Hamish won't be rocking up. The old mudder won't have his conditions and his absence has changed the complexion of the race with Absurde and Caius Chorister now having a private battle between them as to who goes off fav. Although on Friday morning, Caius Chorister was weak and losing that particular set-to.

Dry conditions are forecast for the weekend for likely good ground. Or dare I say some firm in there somewhere.

Ebor winner with bigger targets in mind?

1 (1)

Absurde (Fr)

• J: Daniel Tudhope
• T: W. P. Mullins, Ireland
• F:

Absurde is a difficult one to predict for Willie Mullins - a rare trip from Closutton to the haunted viaduct, and on his Ebor run, he surely wins.

However, the Melbourne Cup is highly likely to be on the Mullins' radar - for which he's a 40/141.00 shot on the Sportsbook, with teammate Vauban a lot shorter for that race at 10s. Absurde finished seventh in the Australian shindig last year, so that's probably not a bad price.

On his run at the Curragh last time in the Irish St Leger Trial, he'd be a complete no-no, as he was a trailer by some 31L, but it looked very much a prep run and first since winning at Cheltenham. With targets down the line, one wonders how cherry ripe the horse will be. Of course he's fresh, but he might be lacking some match sharpness.

At least he's drawn in one.

Chorister needs to settle better for a win

8 (3)

Caius Chorister (Fr)

• J: James Doyle
• T: David Menuisier
• F:

The jovial David Menuisier provides stern opposition in the form of Caius Chorister, who appears to be well placed for this in receipt of getting 5lbs from all the others with a good draw in three.

She's been a good servant for the yard, with a good win record, but of late she's refusing to settle and once again didn't help herself at Goodwood last time in the Group 3 Lillie Langtry.

It was sedate pace throughout - and while helped by the positional advantage of racing handy, she was beaten three lengths on quick ground. I suspect her best is with good and good to soft, and while she acts perfectly on a lively surface, some cut in the ground does suit her.

She's winless this term and her last victory was at the back-end of 2023 over in France - although last year she might have added the Ebor riches to her CV as she was most unlucky at York.

This does represent a big drop in class - but she needs to stop over-racing as it is preventing her from showcasing her very best talents and will need a good pace - which is where Fairbanks comes into play.

Fairbanks could be presented with a golden opportunity

3 (4)

Fairbanks

• J: David Probert
• T: Andrew Balding
• F:

The great actor Richard Harris was once described as having a very high opinion of himself, but one who wrote dire poems. My affinity with Fairbanks seems to be going the same way.

I had the opinion that he'd be a contender for last week's Ebor, and he was the antepost favourite at 7/18.00 on the Sportsbook for the race, but on the Saturday he'd gone out to 20s and while not totally as dire as one of Harris' sonnets, it was a real lacklustre effort from him at York.

He was hampered and short of room, but in no way did it compromise his chances and he appeared not to stay at all.

I've tipped and backed him numerous times this term and I've been crying out for him to grab a race by the horns and lead and gallop his rivals into the ground. He did that at Newcastle and won stylishly at Newmarket, and while a quick turnaround just seven days on from York at 11/112.00, I am still tempted.

It's also interesting the visor replaces the blinkers. He has won in his first-time headgear on two occasions, so the accoutrement options are wearing thin, but he has to make the running here plain and simple and he couldn't do that from a wide draw at York. Admittedly against a million rivals.

With 2023 winner Shanroe and Rajinsky both returning from absences of 300 and 398 days respectively, and perhaps a doubt whether Absurde will be cherry ripe with bigger targets down the line, I do make him an each-way bet.

He's certainly earning his keep this season, and I've been doing a man marking job on him in 2024 to make Claudio Gentile proud.

Stoute very quiet with just 18 winners all season

5 (8)

Real Dream (Ire)

• J: Richard Kingscote
• T: Sir Michael Stoute
• F:

Real Dream is another of last year's Ebor Alumni - although he was thrashed in that by 16L but was fancied in the betting at 15/28.50.

He's 4/15.00 for Chester on Saturday, and that's more of a price with connections for Sir Michael Stoute and the fact he's unexposed.

Real Dream was last seen in June and stopped quickly at York - finishing last of five. Stoute opted for wind surgery and this will be his first run for 77 days. Again, he's hardly in peak shape coming into this, neither is Stoute, who hasn't had a winner in two weeks and has collected just 18 wins all season.

Richard Kingscote isn't a bad ally to have around Chester and is third on the list with 18 winners from five seasons at 13% around here, but he looks a bit too short in the betting as he has something to prove.

Conclusion

With doubts outlined about the main contenders, this looks a prize there for the taking and Andrew Balding has won this twice in the last six seasons with Duretto and Spanish Mission.

Gordon Elliott's Samui and last year's winner of the race Shanroe are priced at 5/16.00 and 16/117.00, but I worry about Samui's potential lack of pace if Fairbanks is ridden from the front. He might have company with Shanroe - who made all to win 12 months ago, but Shanroe is a 10yo now and hasn't been on a racecourse since last November.

Backing "The Banks" has become of a bit of an exercise in nostalgia for me, but he's drawn well, will have no issues with the ground and must make the running with David Probert.

Probert is another to have on your side around the Roodee as he's 19-122 in five seasons at 15% and at Chester, Probert and Balding chime in with an excellent 20% win and 42% placed. I do think Fairbanks, my old chum, is a cracking each-way bet with the three places on the Sportsbook.

Now read more tips for Saturday from Betfair's team of writers here!