Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict: Brueghel to continue upward curve for Classic Saturday honours

• Seven take their chance in Saturday's St Leger

• Jan Brueghel to earn his staying stripes according to Alan Dudman

• Illinois the Classic favourite on the Sportsbook at 15/82.88

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Illinois Superboost

The Aidan O'Brien-trained Illinois is the favourite to win today's feature race at Doncaster, the St Leger at 15:40. He is the highest-rated horse in the race and has never finished out of the frame in all seven of his career starts, including finishing first or second in all of his last four races.

Today the Betfair Sportsbook have super-boosted the price of Illinois to finish in the top two from 8/131.61 to 1/12.00. To take advantage of this superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Which one of the Aidan O'Brien trio?

And then there were seven, and for Aidan O'Brien; and then there were three. As expected, Los Angeles has gone elsewhere leaving Ballydoyle with Illinois, Jan Brueghel and Grosvenor Square.

There's not much to separate in price with with the trio and Illinois at 15/82.88 on ratings is the best by 1lb (Sunday holds 115 and second).

His reputation was seriously dented in the Lingfield Derby Trial earlier in the season when turned over at 6/42.50, but he bounced back with a more suitable trip in the Queen's Vase and a win on quick ground at Ascot. On both occasions he hung left and right, although his trainer put that down to him being babyish.

Indeed, O'Brien had the Leger in mind in the summer by saying: "I think he might have a little bit more class than a Cup horse. His sister won the Arc, so he's that type (for the Leger)."

He's certainly made for the race, but he's been beaten four times this season and that has never been a total Classic profile. I am not knocking him, nor his efforts.

In my Antepost column earlier in the week, Jan Brueghel appealed, and while raw and growing up, I really like this young horse's profile.

It's three-from-three thus far (that's more like) with two neck margins in both of his Group 3 wins. He won his maiden by 8L at the Curragh with O'Brien somewhat amusingly underplaying him in saying "he could be a fair horse". As a full brother to an Irish Derby winner, the stamina is there and he has a quality profile as an improving young stayer.

He won the Gordon Stakes with his first try at 1m4f and got every inch of that against Bella Justum, and one can hope the green attitude beforehand won't be on show on Saturday.

At the price at 7/24.50 he looks more of a bet. His stout pedigree might not be fashionable for the speedster hipsters, but it is for this race with a Queen Alexandra winner in the family too as a brother, his pedigree is the Acme of staying.

Grosvenor Square was a 20L winner of the Irish St Leger Trial last time - 20 wickets! It's fairly astonishing that a winner by a margin of that size will be allowed to go off at 9/25.50.

He'd be at home on very testing ground but did come up well short in the Chester Vase and Irish Derby. He's hard to weigh up as there's the flash of brilliance in blissfully easy fashion with his engine - or there are the defeats. How much stock do you put into his win last time?

O'Brien's verdict? Well, he said: "He has serious stamina when he gets into a rhythm, he's an exciting horse. It's hard to know what to do against this horse, do you follow him or don't you. Ryan said he was far from finished, he galloped right through the line. It's very hard not to go to Doncaster after that. He is a very uncomplicated horse. He handled that ground and he handles soft ground well."

My verdict? Well, he beat an 80/181.00 rag and a jumper in Zeeband last time. Pass.

Filly in receipt of weight for Beckett

You Got To Me was supplemented to the tune of 50,000 sheets for this and was second in the Yorkshire Oaks last time behind Content, ahead of Emily Upjohn and Mistral Star.

That form doesn't look great translating to this race and she might need a couple of the big beasts here to hardly raise a roar.

Her best form is good and good to firm and she's been brave this year, and her trainer Ralph Beckett has been brave with the campaign as he hasn't shirked the race and Beckett will have memories and nightmares of Simple Verse's run in the Leger and her bid to become the first filly since User Friendly in 1992 to win the oldest Classic.

Sunway and Deira Mile look up against it

On Deira Mile's Derby run at Epsom - seven lengths behind City Of Troy, you'd have him down as a strong stayer, but his defeat at Windsor last time worries me, although the small field and the tactical nuances of that race were dead against him in the soft conditions and steady gallop.

Saturday is more suitable on the trip, and his trainer Owen Burrows has had one staying winner so far at Donny with Nakheel on Thursday and opts for the blinkers first time on Deira Mile.

Burrows with blinkers has 13% win and 27% strike-rates.

Sunway is handled by the gifted David Menuisier, a trainer I have plenty of time for and has broken through into the higher division, plus he seems to do well with stayers.

Menuisier from 90 horses over 1m6f to 2m2f has a record of 16% and 36% placed and is never afraid to take the more formidable opponents on.

Sunway made the running earlier in the season in the Prix Greffulhe at Saint Cloud, and made the running in his juvenile days but in his last few runs hold up tactics have been utilised. He was second in the Irish Derby - a run that delighted his trainer who said: "That's the third Classic I've lost by less than a length this season so I'm used to it now! I'm delighted with Sunway, we've always thought the world of him. People lost faith in the horse and today he vindicated himself and showed that he's a really classy act."

Does he have the class? Well he has to try the 1m6f for the first time and there's no reason he won't stay on the Curragh run, but like Beckett's filly, they are two that have to prove themselves with the new distance.

Ballydoyle never fail with tactics

City Of Troy's front-running masterclass in the Juddmonte under Ryan Moore was a real rabbit out of the hat, and typical of O'Brien in outfoxing many in the field, and it's never the best idea to fly in the face of logic, but that defied many pundits and tipsters (the tactics, not the win).

Jan Brueghel has been ridden handily at Goodwood and Curragh, and Illinois was ridden well forward in the Queen's Vase to use his stamina. Grosvenor Square looks the obvious one to really press on and make it - he did so in the Eyrefield Stakes in heavy ground last term, and did so in that testimonial lap in the Leger Trial in Ireland.

You Got To Me led at a fast pace in the Ribblesdale, and also made the running in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, but has been ridden in midfield since, and might not have the luxury nor indeed the inclination and plan over the new distance.

But for me Jan Brueghel has such a good profile for the race and O'Brien with a maturing stayer for this race is his strength - that shrewd anticipation and the respect of the stayer.

Brian Glanville, the great football writer was often apoplectic at the lack of a winger in the English ranks and when he spotted one, would often say "Long live the winger!"

Long live the stayer, and that hopefully will be Jan Brueghel.

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