Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets including 35/1 fancy in the Ebor

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York, 13:50 - Back Expanded E/W @ 11/112.00

First-time cheekpieces could spark some improvement in Aidan O'Brien-trained Expanded, who appears at a big price on the best of his form in this Group Three contest. He finished a close second to Shadow Of Light in the Group One Dewhurst Stakes as a juvenile in what was only his second career start, when placing ahead of the talented, sadly ill-fated Ancient Truth, and Seagulls Eleven.

The son of Wootton Bassett didn't quite kick on as a three-year-old but made only two starts in the early stages of his second campaign, both appearances in Classics, before returning from a 112-day break in September when only sixth in a Leopardstown Group Two.

This year, however, he began his season promisingly when half-a-length second to The Lion In Winter at Leopardstown. He was narrowly beaten by Wannabe Royal in his second start, and, although he does need to show further improvement stepping back up in class, The Lion In Winter was a Group One performer on his day and Expanded was entitled to improve for his opening run of the season. In the past, he has shown form at the top level and remains unexposed, lightly raced making only his eighth career start. 

Expanded does need to prove he has trained on enough to perform against some of the rivals he faces here, but the ceiling of his ability remains an unknown and he could be capable of showing further progression for a genius trainer.

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Curragh, 14:15 - Back Go Athletico E/W @ [SP]

Course-and-distance winner Go Athletico is currently 5lb below his last winning mark and has been in good form of late. He was only narrowly denied when a well-backed price of 15/28.50 at the Galway Festival last month, before finishing a decent fifth at this track when last seen. 

Ground versatile, he has been effective in softer conditions in the past therefore will benefit from any rainfall and ease in the surface, but can also perform on quicker ground, too. There's plenty to like about his chances and he should put in another bold bid.

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York, 14:25 - Back Tierra Del Toro E/W @ 14/115.00

A 340,000gns purchase as a yearling, Tierra Del Toro showed promise with form figures of 212 as a juvenile, before emerging with credit when third in his opening run of the season to Lost Boys in the London Gold Cup. He stayed on well that day in his first run for 239 days, but couldn't build on the effort in two subsequent runs, despite having some excuses at Goodwood when last seen.

This is his first try over a mile-and-three-quarters and he has shaped as a promising stayer, therefore the extra distance could see him to better effect. He remains unexposed in only his fourth handicap start, and is back a mark of 95 from which he placed at Newbury earlier in the term.

By Lope De Vega, the three-year-old is out of mile-and-a-quarter winner Terre, a daughter of Motivator and sister to top class Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Treve.

There's plenty of staying capability in his pedigree and there could be further improvement to come from the Ralph Beckett-trained contender, who is one to note under James Doyle for Wathnan Racing.

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City Of York Stakes, York, 15:00 - Back Flora Of Bermuda E/W @ 16/117.00

Andrew Balding has enjoyed a brilliant week at York so far and could find more success over the weekend. He saddles likeable mare Flora Of Bermuda in this competitive Group One, a contender with two previous course wins who appeared to handle the step up to 7f well when winning a Group Three at Goodwood when last seen.

The five-year-old has Group One form over the sprinting trips and is capable of holding her own in this company on a going day. She's unexposed over the distance and could be able to show further improvement, making appeal in the hands of Oisin Murphy.

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City Of York Stakes, York, 15:00 - Back Puerto Rico E/W @ 14/115.00

Puerto Rico is another to note at a price for Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore. He's a dual Group One winner dropping back in trip having contested in tough races won by Bow Echo of late.

His recent form leaves plenty of room for improvement, but he was a good fourth to Rayif in the Poule d'Essai Des Poulains, despite being a beaten favourite that day, and could return to some form in first-time cheekpieces.

With proven form at the top level over this trip as a juvenile, Puerto Rico warrants each-way consideration and should enjoy some cut in the ground. He shaped with great promise during his juvenile campaign, finishing second in races won by the likes of True Love and Coppull too, and could be worth keeping the faith in.

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Ebor Handicap, York, 15:35 - Back Real Dream E/W @ 35/136.00

Real Dream is on a workable mark of 96 and has previously run well in this race, therefore shouldn't be discounted at a big each-way price with plenty of valuable experience in his favour. He finished fifth from a 7lb higher mark in the race last year, performing well behind Ethical Diamond at odds of 25/126.00 to make the frame.

This year, the seven-year-old gelding finished a close fourth in a Riyadh Grade Two handicap but hasn't been able to produce much since. He could be worth keeping onside, however, from a falling mark, which puts him in with an outside chance.

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Ebor Handicap, York, 15:35 - Back Ascending E/W @ 16/117.00

Henry de Bromhead struck in this race two years ago with Magical Zoe and went close to retaining the title with Ascending, who finished a good second to Ethical Diamond at odds of 12/113.00 twelve months ago. He bids to go one better from the same mark this time around, although comes into the race in poorer form.

The return to the Knavesmire could spark improvement in the gelding, who has proven form in the race in his favour. He's a strong stayer and on a workable mark if returning to his best, therefore should be considered each-way under the in-form Oisin Orr for the Knockeen stable.

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York, 16:10 - Back King Of Light E/W @ 12/113.00

Four-year-old gelding King Of Light has been running consistently well in competitive handicaps of late and could give another good account of himself from an unchanged mark of 97 in this competitive 6f contest.

With Ryan Moore aboard for Stuart Williams, the son of Mehmas is one note despite being 6lb higher rated than his last winning mark. He won convincingly at Windsor in June, beating runner-up Coul Angel by three-and-a-half-lengths, and is capable of putting in a threatening performance from his current mark.

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York, 16:10 - Back Golden Mind E/W @ 40/141.00

Golden Mind is 1lb lower than his last winning mark and will enjoy slightly softer conditions on the Knavesmire following rainfall during the week. He finished a close second to Bellarchi when rated 2lb higher earlier in the season, before outrunning odds of 33/134.00 at Ascot in his subsequent run when a two-length fourth to The Wizard Of Eye.

Although he has struggled to be competitive lately, he has a vast amount of valuable experience in big fields, competitive handicaps which should hold him in good stead, and he's on a workable rating if at his best.

With a favourable trip, the Richard and Peter Fahey-trained contender could be capable of performing better than his odds suggest and is far from a forlorn hope.

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Bet of the day: Chester, 17:00 - Back Roman Dragon @ [SP]

Back on his last winning mark with valuable course experience to his benefit, Roman Dragon should put in a bold bid for Hugo Palmer at Chester. He returns over 6f in this race and has 3lb claiming Jack Nicholls easing his burden off top weight, putting him in with strong claims.

The seven-year-old, who makes his 60th start in this contest, is bidding for an 11th career win. He has been a brilliant horse over the years, winning at Stakes level too, and should have enough talent and ability to make his presence felt in this field.

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