Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets including 16/1 pick

• Katie Midwinter has selections across the cards on Saturday

• Reliable grey is one to watch at his beloved Newcastle

• Course-and-distance winner makes appeal in Chester handicap

Timeform Superboost

East India Dock is a very consistent horse and has now finished inside the top six on his last 10 starts with five wins coming in that sequence, including victory in the ultra competitive Chester Cup last month. 

Today's Northumberland Plate at Newcastle is another long-distance competitive handicap in which you can back East India Dock at the super-boosted price of 6/42.50 (from 8/111.73] to finish in the top six once again. To take advantage, just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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Newcastle, 13:40 - Back Strike Red E/W @ 9/110.00

3 (11)

Strike Red (Ire)

• J: Billy Garritty
• T: Richard Fahey
• F:

A consistent performer over this course-and-distance, Richard Fahey-trained Strike Red is one to note in this competitive handicap.

The seven-year-old finished a creditable fifth of 14 runners in this contest twelve months ago when rated 1lb lower, running on strongly in the finish despite losing momentum when struggling to find a clear run. It was a performance that could be upgraded and, if able to have some better luck in-running, he holds strong each-way claims once again from a rating of 96.

This season the son of Dark Angel has been performing well generally, and the form of his second to Completely Random has been franked multiple times, including by the winner, who went on to finish fifth in the Wokingham Stakes from a 6lb higher mark, the third-placed Billyjoh as well as Akkadian Thunder, second in the Buckingham Palace Stakes when last seen, and Rousing Encore, a winner at York since.

There's plenty of evidence to suggest Strike Red enjoys himself at Newcastle which is a huge positive coming into this race, and he has run well twice in the contest previously. Luck is usually needed at the track, but a draw from stall 11 could prove advantageous as it has provided two of the previous four winners, with high draws often achieving success in the race.

At a price of 11/112.00, Strike Red is a reliable selection who should be able to put in a competitive effort under Billy Garritty.

York, 15:00 - Back Democracy Dilemma E/W @ 17/29.50

2 (8)

Democracy Dilemma (Ire)

• J: Tom Eaves
• T: Robert Cowell
• F:

Robert Cowell-trained Democracy Dilemma is a classy contender in this field, capable of posing a threat despite carrying a hefty weight from a mark of 102. He was able to finish a length fourth to Jm Jungle in a competitive handicap at the Ebor Festival here last summer from top weight when rated 2lb higher, giving 16lb to the winner who is now rated 101.

In his penultimate start on the Knavesmire, the five-year-old gelding finished a two-length third to subsequent Breeders' Cup winner Starlust in the Listed City Walls Stakes, and he could make it third time lucky at the track after two good runs here. 

So far this term, Democracy Dilemma has been unable to land a blow but wasn't disgraced when fifth in the Listed Achilles Stakes at Haydock nor when seventh at Epsom on his latest start, but has dropped a total of 4lb and is in handicap company on quicker ground once again, having appeared twice in Stakes company and in slightly softer conditions at Epsom.

The experienced son of Cotai Glory seeks an eighth career success on his 36th start and shouldn't be discounted under Tom Eaves. He's a talented horse who has proven he can compete in handicaps from a similar mark, and, at odds of 17/29.50, he makes each-way appeal.

Chester, 15:05 - Back Flaming Rib @ BSP

5 (1)

Flaming Rib (Ire)

• J: Stevie Donohoe
• T: Hugo Palmer
• F:

Course-and-distance winner Flaming Rib has dropped to a rating of 90 having struggled for form over the past couple of years.

The son of Ribchester recorded five successes during his debut campaign as a juvenile, culminating in a Listed success at Doncaster before placing twice at Group level as a three-year-old, including when second to Perfect Power in the Commonwealth Cup.

That Royal Ascot effort earned him a career-high rating of 113 and, although he was able to finish fourth in the Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes in his subsequent outing as well as add another victory to his record in Doha, he has been unable to replicate the form shown earlier in his career since. 

His recent form figures leave a lot to be desired, he has shaped with some potential on occasion, including when only beaten two-and-a-half-lengths by The Bell Conductor at this level over this course-and-distance last summer, when completely stopped in his tracks in the closing stages. He has proven course form, representing a Hugo Palmer yard that is usually worth keeping onside on the Roodee, and there have been signs that he still retains ability.

A classy performer on his day who may not be capable of performing at the top level anymore, Flaming Rib is good enough to be competitive in this sphere. He has been given a chance of rediscovering form at the weights and could reward the faith.

Newcastle, 15:45 - Back Zip E/W @ 12/113.00

12 (8)

Zip

• J: Warren Fentiman
• T: Richard Fahey
• F:

Extremely likeable gelding Zip has a fantastic record at Newcastle and is impossible to rule out in familiar surroundings here.

A four-time course-and-distance winner, his latest success at the track came from a 6lb lower mark under Warren Fentiman, who claimed 7lb as opposed to his current 5lb claim, last autumn, and was only beaten by Eldrickjones when ahead of 11 rivals from a 2lb lower rating here last month. He has placed on eight occasions over the 7f trip here, usually performing with credit in competitive big field handicaps, and he is one to rely on at a venue where he thrives.

Hugely experienced making his 82nd career start, his 30th on an all-weather surface, the nine-year-old grey has been in great form over the past year or so, proving on multiple occasions that he still retains plenty of ability. He has struck up an excellent partnership with his capable young rider, with the pair boasting form figures of 11542 when teaming up, and there is plenty in their favour here as they seek another victory together.

Windsor, 16:00 - Back The Flying Seagull @ BSP

5 (8)

The Flying Seagull (Ire)

• J: Cieren Fallon
• T: Hugo Palmer
• F:

Three-year-old gelding The Flying Seagull had shown potential as a juvenile last term, performing well on numerous occasions including when shedding his maiden tag at Chester. This term, he has been highly tried over the 6f trip, narrowly beaten at Lingfield in April before finishing a creditable fifth to Hammer The Hammer from a wide draw at Chester's May Festival, outrunning his odds of 28/129.00.

From an unchanged mark of 79, the son of Kodiac, who fetched €65,000 as a Goffs Orby Book 1 yearling, put in an excellent performance from a tricky draw when equipped with a first-time visor over this course-and-distance recently, staying on well to place at odds of 22/123.00 despite being forced to adopt a wide trip early on. In a smaller field here, despite being drawn widest of all, he should be able to enjoy a more favourable trip and the headgear remains on.

With the in-form Cieren Fallon in the saddle for Hugo Palmer, The Flying Seagull holds leading claims as he seeks a second career success.

Chester, 16:10 - Back Perfect Part E/W @ 9/110.00

1 (6)

Perfect Part (Ire)

• J: Shay Farmer
• T: Brian Ellison
• F:

Mehmas filly Perfect Part returns to handicap company following a fourth-placed effort at Listed level when last seen.

On her penultimate start, she finished a length-and-a-quarter fourth in a 14-runner handicap at York, outrunning her odds of 25/126.00 under 7lb claimer Shay Farmer, who returns in the saddle here, when stuck in traffic late on, full of running at the line. She is only 1lb higher this time out, still on a workable mark considering some of the form she has shown at a higher level previously.

As a juvenile, the Brian Ellison-trained filly provided a shock on debut to win at odds of [125/] before shaping with some promise behind the likes of Celandine and Sky Majesty, respectively, at Group level, before returning to action as a three-year-old with a two-and-three-quarter-length defeat to Spycatcher in Listed company.

A talented filly, who remains unexposed and has the scope for further improvement on only her tenth career start, Perfect Part is more than capable of posing a threat at this level and should be in the mix should she have the rub of the green in this race.

Lingfield, 20:15 - Back Twirler E/W @ 16/117.00

2 (1)

Twirler

• J: Nicola Currie
• T: Michael Attwater
• F:

Four-year-old filly Twirler can be completely excused for her effort in first-time cheekpieces when last seen, slowly away as a result of the blindfold being taken off too late in the stalls, losing ground on the rest of her rivals from the outset. She was able to get back into a position to be competitive, but weakened in the closing stages, and she should fare better this time around.

Prior to that outing, she had performed with some credit when fourth at Brighton, beaten only two-and-three-quarter-lengths by the winner Time Patrol, and is now on a 3lb lower mark. She was slightly hampered when mounting her challenge that day, which may have affected her finishing position, and she could prove worth keeping onside given she's now 10lb below her last winning mark.

Bidding to record a first success for her current trainer Michael Attwater, Twirler is no forlorn hope and warrants each-way consideration now dropping back down in class from the lowest mark of her career to date.

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