Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets on Thursday including 40/1 outsider at Newcastle

• Katie Midwinter has selections at Newcastle and Newmarket

• Likeable gelding can resume his progression

• Classy outsider is no forlorn hope at generous odds

Newmarket, 15:00 - Back Spring Bloom @ 9/25.50

Experienced eight-year-old Spring Bloom put in a respectable effort on his 50th career start when last seen, finishing fourth behind Spring Is Sprung, beaten a length-and-three-quarters from a rating of 75.

Dropped 1lb for the outing, the Robert Eddery-trained contender is now 1lb lower than his last winning mark over course-and-distance last summer.

Making appeal at the weights, the son of Power, who usually runs well at the track, is bidding for a hat-trick on the course having won his previous two races here. He's a likeable gelding and with proven course form in his favour, from a handy mark, he holds strong claims as he seeks a seventh career success under the in-form Richard Kingscote, who is currently performing at a 28 percent strike-rate.

Newcastle, 15:10 - Back Postileo E/W @ 40/141.00

Outsider of the field Postileo could be able to outrun his odds of 40/141.00 on his second start for Alan Brown.

In his return to action at Southwell when last seen, the eight-year-old was unable to make any impression over an extended two miles in his first run for his new yard following a 247-day break.

Entitled to improve plenty for the run, Postileo does need to prove he still retains enough ability to be competitive at this level, but he did put in a promising effort when a nine-length fourth to Kyprios in a Listed Navan 1m6f contest last year, behind third-placed Yashin, now rated 106, but ahead of now 105-rated Run For Oscar, who has franked the form.

In his subsequent start, the then Emmet Mullins-trained contender was sent off at odds of 7/18.00 for the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot, eventually pulled-up having been reported to have stopped quickly.

On a comeback trail, Postileo, who was purchased for 500,000gns as a yearling, drops significantly in trip, featuring over the mile-and-a-quarter distance for the first time since his debut at Sandown five years ago.

Trained by Roger Varian earlier in his career, the son of Galileo showed plenty of promise, putting in numerous creditable efforts, mostly over the staying trips, including when beating Not To Sleepy at Doncaster. In his final couple of starts for his first yard, he won over a mile-and-a-half before placing third behind Al Qareem at Group Three level, finishing ahead of the likes of now 114-rated Al Aasy.

Plenty of time has passed since then and it's unlikely Postileo will be able to replicate that level of form, but he is now 12lb lower than his career-high mark, 3lb lower than his previous winning handicap mark, and wasn't completely disgraced behind a dual Gold Cup winner only 14 months ago. 

A leap of faith is required but Postileo possesses too much class on a going day to completely rule out, and his odds are generous considering he should take a step forward from his latest run. He's related to a number of talented performers over shorter trips including Group Three winning miler Future Generation, and this drop in trip could allow him to fare better.

Newmarket, 15:35 - Back Argentine Tango @ 15/28.50

Making her fifth career start, Mattmu filly Argentine Tango could be ready for this step up to Listed company having shown consistency and a good level of form so far during her juvenile campaign.

On debut, the Tim Easterby-trained filly, a relative of Group One winner Hearts Of Fire, finished a three-quarter-of-a-length second to Ali Shuffle, who had the benefit of experience and went on to finish second in a Chantilly Group Three. She was quite green on that occasion but did finish strongly in the closing stages, shaping with plenty of promise and was entitled to improve for the experience.

In her second start, Argentine Tango was able to shed her maiden tag by beating Star Material at Pontefract before finishing second to subsequent Albany Stakes winner Venetian Sun at Carlisle. That form has been significantly franked by the winner and Argentine Tango again was able to shape with plenty of potential.

When last seen, the filly narrowly beat reopposing Meelaf at Beverley and should be able to confirm that form, well on top at the line despite the narrow winning margin. She has amassed plenty of valuable experience against some talented rivals despite remaining lightly raced, and she is completely unexposed at this level.

Having shown a great amount of promise so far in her career, as well as a good battling attitude, with substance to the form, Argentine Tango could emerge as the best of this field by achieving black-type success under David Allan.

Newcastle, 15:45 - Back Tribal Chief @ 5/16.00

Likeable gelding Tribal Chief enjoyed a fantastic first campaign recording four wins during 2024, given a total of 29lb rise in the weights. He returned from a rating of 90 this term, when second to Bullet Point, who franked the form with a creditable second in the Royal Hunt Cup, starting slowly, losing plenty of ground, before finishing strongly.

In his latest start at Longchamp, the ground was likely too quick for the four-year-old and he was withdrawn on account of the good to firm going at Sandown recently. The return to the all-weather should allow him to bounce back following a disappointing effort, and he has proven form on such a surface having won on the polytrack at Kempton. 

The talented son of Sioux Nation is still nicely treated from a rating of 91, capable of showing even further progression. He wouldn't be out of place in Stakes company, and he has the talent to win this contest with a favourable trip.

Representing David Menuisier with Harry Davies, who has partnered him to three of his four successes to date, back in the saddle, Tribal Chief holds leading claims at a price of 5/16.00.

Newmarket, 16:10 - Back Cracking Gold E/W @ 14/115.00

Clive Cox-trained Cracking Gold warrants consideration from a rating of 91, capable of posing a threat from that rating, 3lb higher than his last winning mark. His latest success came over a mile at Southwell in March, when he recorded a two-length victory over Sovereign Sea with Rossa Ryan, who returns in the saddle here, aboard.

Since then, the four-year-old son of Havana Gold has shown inconsistency but did put in a good performance when outrunning his odds of 20/121.00 to finish fourth in a tricky Chester handicap at the May Festival on the Roodee. He was on a mark of 93 that day, dropped 1lb following the run and dropped a further 1lb when failing to fire over a mile-and-a-half at Redcar.

The drop back in trip should allow him to put in a more competitive effort this time around and he has enough ability to return to form on his all-weather return. 

Cracking Gold hit the ground running last year, winning both of his first two starts at Kempton and Lingfield respectively, before being narrowly beaten by now 90-rated Havanagreattime when giving away 5lb to the winner on handicap debut.

A fourth-placed finish in the Esher Cup followed, when beaten two-and-a-half-lengths by subsequent winner Hand Of God, now rated 101, with now 97-rated Blue Lemons in second and now 108-rated Royal Supremacy in third, Cuban Tiger, a useful performer since who's now rated 94, further behind in fifth.

The gelding has shown snippets of form since then and is one to note in this field, making the most appeal at odds of 14/115.00.

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