Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets on Sunday at Longchamp including 28/1 Arc pick

• Katie Midwinter has selections at Longchamp on Arc day

• Japanese-trained runner could land the prestigious trophy

• Classy filly is bet of the day for team Ballydoyle

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Prix Marcel Boussac, Longchamp, 12:40 - Back Diamond Necklace @ 5/42.25

Unbeaten filly Diamond Necklace is bidding for a third career success following on from a Listed Leopardstown victory last month.

The daughter of St Mark's Basilica, who fetched €1,700,000 as a yearling, is out of dual winner Prudenzia, whose two career wins came at this venue, including one at Listed level. She is a half-sister to a number of black-type performers including Group One winners in Magic Wand and Chicquita, from a classy family, exceptionally well bred.

In two starts to date, Diamond Necklace has shown great promise particularly when making up late ground in impressive fashion to land the Ingabelle Stakes convincingly at the Irish Champions Festival.

There should be plenty of further progression to come from this exciting prospect, who represents a Ballydoyle operation that landed the 2023 renewal with Opera Singer.

The Aidan O'Brien-trained contender holds leading claims in this Group One under Christophe Soumillon, and should prove tough to beat.

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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Longchamp, 15:05 - Back Alohi Alii E/W @ 14/115.00

This year's renewal of one of the world's most prestigious races appears to be an open and intriguing contest in which Aidan O'Brien-trained Minnie Hauk heads the market, bidding for a fourth successive Group One having also achieved Classic success this term. Whilst she warrants respect as an in-form performer for a master trainer, she faces many formidable rivals who represent value at the prices.

No horse trained in Japan has ever won the Arc, but that could change this year as they're well represented. Unexposed colt Alohi Alii makes the most appeal, a son of Japanese 2000 Guineas and Japanese Derby winner Duramente, trained by Hiroyasu Tanaka.

He hasn't been seen much throughout his career so far, and does lack experience in comparison with his rivals, however, he made a significant impression in a Deauville Group Two when last seen. Entitled to take a step forward for his first European appearance, he has the scope for further progression as he makes the step up to a mile-and-a-half.

In his latest outing over a mile-and-a-quarter in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano, Alohi Alii made all in the contest previously won by the likes of Mishriff, Economics, and, most notably in recent renewals, future Arc winner Ace Impact.

The manner of his victory that day was hugely impressive as he was able to pull three-and-a-half-lengths clear of runner-up Rashabar, rated 113 having previously been narrowly denied twice in French Group One contests, with Cualificar, who has won a Group Two since and is a shorter price for this race, in third.

There's substance to the form, and he was able to win comfortably and with ease, which makes the performance all the more taking. Alohi Alii shouldn't be discounted and, if he can perform to a similar level again, or show even further progression, he could be capable of springing a surprise from a favourable draw in the hands of Christophe-Patrice Lemaire, who bids for his first Arc success.

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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Longchamp, 15:05 - Back White Birch E/W @ 28/129.00

White Birch is another worth considering particularly should there be considerable rainfall before the off at Longchamp.

The likeable grey beat talented colt Auguste Rodin to Group One glory last term, and has performed with credit twice behind Los Angeles this season in performances that could be upgraded.

He was denied only a neck by that rival, who reopposes from a less favourable draw here, in a Curragh Group Two on his reappearance following a 344-day break in May, before suffering a luckless passage when attempting to retain his Tattersalls Gold Cup crown in his following start a few weeks later. 

Absent since then, the five-year-old returned to action after a 111-day layoff with a fifth-placed effort behind Delacroix in the Irish Champion Stakes. He was left with plenty of ground to make up from the rear of the field following a sluggish start on that occasion, in ground that was drying out and when perhaps needing the run, too. 

He should be able to improve on that effort and cannot be discounted considering the class he has shown in the past.

At the prices, the John Joseph Murphy-trained contender represents value and has the ability to outrun his odds on a going day. A win of this magnitude isn't beyond this son of Ulysses, who has shown he can mix it at the highest level against some of the world's best.

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Prix de l'Opera, Longchamp, 15:50 - Back One Look E/W @ 12/113.00

Talented filly One Look appears in her first Group One contest over this mile-and-a-quarter trip which should suit perfectly, with easier conditions certainly in her favour. 

The likeable four-year-old won the Goffs Million on debut, two years ago, beating the field of 22 rivals by six-lengths. She was able to win a Listed contest, whilst placing twice at Stakes level too during her following campaign, before landing Group Three honours on her return to action this year. 

Narrowly denied by Porta Fortuna in a Curragh Group Two in May, One Look subsequently appeared in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot when failing to give her true running in the good to firm ground conditions.

She was more comfortable in slower ground over an extra couple of furlongs in her following outing, landing another Group Three race, before performing with credit when beaten by Barnavara in the Blandford Stakes at the Irish Champions Festival. 

Her latest run in that Curragh Group Two can be upgraded considering she was faced with a huge task to peg back the leader turning for home. Whilst she was able to make up ground effectively, the bird had flown and she couldn't land a blow as she was attempting to claim a prize that has so far evaded her. 

This is another step up in Grade, which will require even further improvement, but One Look is unexposed at this level and has plenty in her favour as she makes her first to France. The daughter of Gleneagles, who represents Paddy Twomey, can make her presence felt in a race of this nature, and has the ability to outrun her odds of 12/113.00 with a favourable trip.

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Prix de la Foret, Longchamp, 16:25 - Back Topgear E/W @ 11/112.00

Christopher Head-trained Topgear makes each-way appeal at odds of 11/112.00 in this 7f Group One. He needs to return to form following a couple of below par efforts, but should be suited by this assignment having previously landed Group Two and Group Three successes.

The return to this distance in likely slower conditions should suit the horse, who has recorded all of his Stakes successes to date in ground which featured soft in the description.

Things haven't quite worked out for him at this level yet, but he was sent off at odds of 6/17.00 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot, in ground that may have proved too quick for him, particularly considering he lost two shoes during the race which wouldn't have helped his cause.

In a Group Three here in May, Topgear beat Sajir by a length-and-three-quarters when returning from a 226-day break.

Sajir, who reopposes here, went on to claim Group One success in the Prix Maurice de Gheest, significantly franking the form, and is a 6/17.00 chance for this race as a result. Third-placed King Gold won a Group Three in his following start, whilst fourth-placed Lake Forest was only narrowly denied in the Group One City Of York Stakes a few months later.

Based on that effort, and the fact Topgear had previously recorded two impressive victories last autumn too, including over Ten Bob Tony here, his price would suggest he is being overlooked in this field. He has the ability to pose a threat on a going day and can put in a bold bid under Stephane Pasquier.

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Now read Mark Milligan's runner-by-runner guide to the Arc here.

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