Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets for Thursday includes 16/1 Lingfield tip

• Katie Midwinter has four selections at Lingfield

• Handicap debutant makes appeal for Clive Cox

• Experienced gelding can strike for in-form yard

11:58 Lingfield - Back No Surrender @ 9/110.00

5 (2)

No Surrender (Ire)

• J: Callum Shepherd
• T: Ed Dunlop
• F:

Gleneagles gelding No Surrender had been running well without success in recent months prior to a disappointing effort at Southwell when upped in trip on his latest start. In his two previous starts over the intermediate distance, he had been well beaten, and this return to a mile-and-a-quarter is certainly in his favour.

Whilst he's yet to record a second career success since landing a Leicester novice victory on only his second start as a three-year-old, he has been threatening to return to the winners' enclosure, often unfortunate during his races.

His earlier form when second to the now 91-rated Akkadian Thunder, who was in receipt of 7lb when prevailing by a length at Kempton, is eye-catching, but an opening mark of 88 proved too high as the gelding was unable to make much of an impression in handicap company until an improved effort at Chelmsford in July when beaten four-lengths by course specialist Wadacre Gomez. No Surrender had plenty of excuses that day having raced keenly at the rear, forced to adopt a wide route in the straight which affected his chances.

Following an 80-day break during the latter parts of the summer, the Ed Dunlop-trained gelding returned in good form, finishing fourth when beaten two-and-three-quarter-lengths at odds of 12/113.00 in a Redcar handicap, before suffering defeat by only two-lengths to now 84-rated Celtic Warrior. He was just touched off in his previous start over course-and-distance, finishing strongly when narrowly denied on the line.

Based on that effort, returning on the same mark of 75 here, No Surrender is ready to win, and the return to the same scene, over the same trip, is a huge positive. That was his best effort of the year and, if he can put in a repeat performance, he could prove tough to beat.

This smaller field of five runners should indicate there will be fewer traffic issues in the straight, too, and he should enjoy a more straightforward path throughout. Being able to find a clear run has been an issue in the past, and has been the difference between victory and defeat for No Surrender, therefore this compact field, facing only four rivals, should work in his favour, too.

In the hands of Callum Shepherd, who has been in decent form since returning to action, No Surrender could be ready to strike once again, with everything in his favour should he turn up on a going day.

13:58 Lingfield - Back Sergio Parisse @ 11/43.75

6 (6)

Sergio Parisse

• J: Richard Kingscote
• T: Clive Cox
• F:

Sergio Parisse makes the most appeal for win purposes in this 6f contest, should he be ready for the outing following wind surgery and a 197-day absence.

The son of Sergei Prokofiev is out of 5f winning daughter of Showcasing Clouds Rest, and, with such a speedy pedigree, related to a number of proven sprinters, this three-year-old should be capable of being competitive on his handicap debut.

In only his fourth career start, the unexposed colt should be capable of showing further improvement and an opening mark of 78 appears lenient considering some of his juvenile form.

On his first start at Leicester last May, the Clive Cox-trained colt became outpaced in the middle stages of the 5f trip before staying on well in the finish, doing his best work in the final furlong.

The step up to 6f appeared to suit well when winning his maiden at Windsor, pulling clear of the field and shaping with plenty of promise despite drifting markedly to his left in the closing stages. Still learning with experience, he was able to win comfortably enough whilst showing greenness but raw ability, suggesting further progression was likely.

On that occasion he beat Gap Year, with subsequent Listed winner Lady With The Lamp, now rated 98, in third, and Brian, who finished a close second to Gimcrack Stakes winner Cool Hoof Luke in his following start, in fourth.

Brian was also placed in the Chesham Stakes, finishing third to Bedtime Story, before winning twice, including the valuable £100,000 Tattersalls Somerville Auction Stakes at Newmarket, before finishing a close third when slightly unfortunate to be beaten in the Group Three Sirenia Stakes at Kempton.

He's now rated 99, and, considering the progression shown by the third and fourth from Sergio Parisse's maiden victory, with the form significantly franked by both, from his opening rating he should be tough to beat.

A price of 11/43.75 could represent value in that regard, should he be primed on his return to action, but he will be one to keep onside in future assignments in handicaps, as he remains capable of showing progression far beyond his current mark, particularly if he has developed and is able to race more professionally now during his second season.

13:58 Lingfield - Back Rock N Roll Rocket E/W 16/117.00

9 (1)

Rock N Roll Rocket (Ire)

• J: Jack Mitchell
• T: David Loughnane
• F:

From an each-way angle, Rock N Roll Rocket could prove worth sticking with following a disappointing effort when attempting to record successive victories at Southwell last month.

The penny appeared to have finally dropped when the gelded son of Far Above, who fetched £125,000 as a juvenile, recorded his second career win at odds of 18/119.00 on his penultimate start, but was unable to make the same impression from a 3lb higher mark when dropped to 5f.

That didn't suit when last seen, as he couldn't pose a threat, struggling to display the speed required to compete. The step back up to 6f is in his favour, and, considering his earlier form when trained by Jessica Harrington, he should be capable of progressing further beyond his current mark of 75.

On debut at Cork in May, Rock N Roll Rocket made a successful start to his career to oblige at odds of 16/117.00 under Shane Foley, beating a useful field of juveniles. In second was the imposing Powerful Nation, a good-looking and impressive son of Sioux Nation who has since been beaten near the line in Group Three and Listed company, respectively.

Sir Yoshi, a subsequent winner who has been competitive at Listed level, and was just behind Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Magnum Force at York's Ebor Festival, was in third, with the useful Powerful Lady, plus winners New Theory and Shimmy Jimmy also featuring.

Although he was unable to make an impression in his following starts, he had excuses such as the softer conditions in his second appearance at Tipperary, plus the competitive nature and tough task of lining up in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot on only his third start.

Since switching to David Loughnane, he has taken some time to get going having made his debut for the yard in a Listed Curragh race won by Treasure Isle, travelling extremely keenly down to the start, with all chance appearing to be lost as he already faced a stiff task from odds of 50/151.00 at that level. He wasn't able to settle at all, with plenty of his energy appearing to have already been used up before the off.

At Hamilton in his following appearance, he was likely unsuited by the softer ground conditions, but a switch to the all-weather suited and allowed him to return to winning ways.

There should be more to come from him from his current mark, and he can outrun his odds under Jack Mitchell.

14:32 Lingfield - Back Orbaan @ 8/19.00

2 (5)

Orbaan

• J: Jason Watson
• T: David O'Meara
• F:

Experienced gelding Orbaan could be ready to strike in this mile contest, having shown he retains ability when a 50/151.00 third to Apiarist on his penultimate start. He is down in class here, from a 3lb lower mark, and should be forgiven for a below par effort when last seen, having been slowly away.

Considering he has been competitive from a higher rating in the past, and was seemingly expected to run a big race when badly hampered in the Golden Mile at Goodwood, he remains dangerous at this level in lesser contests, despite being a veteran these days.

The David O'Meara team have been in good form of late, which should give Orbaan the best chance possible of returning to winning ways, at a trip which appears to be his optimum.

From a handy mark, back over his desired distance, Orbaan should be able to pose a threat in this class under Jason Watson.

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