Katie Midwinter

Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets for Monday includes 20/1 Wolverhampton tip

Horse Racing tipster Katie Midwinter
Katie Midwinter has four tips from Carlisle, Southwell and Wolverhampton

Horse Racing tipster Katie Midwinter has four selections from Carlisle, Southwell and Wolverhampton to consider on the Betfair Sportsbook this Monday...


13:20 Carlisle - Back Always A Reason E/W @ 9/110.00

Handicap debutant Always A Reason has noteworthy point-to-point form that could suggest he's worth keeping a close eye on in this contest from a mark of 93.

On his point debut as a four-year-old, Always A Reason was pulled up in a race won by subsequent £130,000 purchase Queensbury Boy, who went on to win a Chepstow bumper on Rules debut before finishing a length-and-three-quarter second to Wingmen, recently second in a Grade One hurdle, at the Punchestown Festival.

Quebecois, bought for £320,000, was second in that point-to-point, and also won his first bumper appearance, as well as his maiden hurdle before finishing fourth in Grade Two company at Cheltenham, now rated 131, whilst third-placed Magical King has also displayed ability.

Exciting prospect Teeshan was a convincing winner of Always A Reason's next point outing, in which he was again pulled-up, perhaps taking some time to adjust to life in competitive racing. He showed significant improvement following a 106-day break to finish third to Forty Coats at Ballinaboola, in his first start as a five-year-old. Forty Coats, now trained by Henry de Bromhead, has won a bumper since as well as finishing second on three occasions in maiden hurdles, including when three-lengths behind the aforementioned Wingmen.

Always A Reason then finished a ten-length third to subsequent €230,000 purchase Final Demand, an exceptionally talented novice for Willie Mullins who currently heads the Turners Novices' Hurdle market in ante-post betting for the Cheltenham Festival following a twelve-length victory over Wingmen at Leopardstown. River Run Free, a dual winner since switching to handicapping from a low mark for David Pipe, was in second in that point.

Now trained by Rebecca Menzies, Always A Reason won a point of his own before switching hands for €30,000. Based on the substance of his point form, there should be plenty more to come from this gelding and an opening mark of 93 could prove lenient. He has shown little in maiden and novice contests so far, but has been tried over varying trips and has been held up on all three outings for his current connections. It's likely he'll find more success down the handicap route, making him an enticing proposition in this field. 

Charlie Maggs has a fantastic record aboard the yard's runners, winning three races, finishing second twice, third once, and fourth twice, from nine runs. The stable has also been in decent form so far this month, recording a 20 percent strike-rate, and were able to achieve a 23 percent success-rate here last season.

Likely to be overlooked considering his recent form, and with plenty in his favour here, Always A Reason warrants serious consideration and a price of 9/110.00 makes appeal.


14:50 Carlisle - Back Not Sure E/W @ 16/117.00

Kerry Lee-trained Not Sure is on a recovery mission following a few below par efforts. As a result, the nine-year-old has slipped back to his last winning mark of 107 and could be capable of bouncing back over this shorter trip. 

Not Sure was able to finish a creditable fourth in the Welsh Grand National last season, despite finishing a distance behind winner Nassalam. There were only five finishers in that testing challenge, and Not Sure was running from a rating of 127.

On his following start, he finished third to Movethechains from 116 over 3m5f at Lingfield, and, if he can return to that level of form, he should hold strong claims from his current mark. 

Whilst plenty of faith will be needed with this gelding based on his recent efforts, it's hard to envisage that he's lost all ability, considering he was able to be competitive at this level last year.

Not Sure could be worth keeping on side under Liam Harrison at odds of 16/117.00.


16:45 Southwell - Back Nothinelsematters E/W @ 15/28.50

Alex Hales-trained Nothinelsematters has been in the tracker for a while and, although he is yet to make his mark under Rules as of yet, remains capable of showing further progression as he continues to gain experience.

On his first point start, the gelding fell at the second last when in contention, having been left in front due to the fall of Touch Me Not at the previous fence. Touch Me Not was subsequently purchased for £150,000 and has since won a Grade Two novice chase as well as placing second to Majborough in Grade One company.

Whilst it's highly unlikely Nothinelsematters will reach those heights, a mark of 72 does appear lenient. He's had his excuses for underperforming on many of his hurdling starts so far, having previously shown he's able to pose a threat when beaten only two-lengths on handicap debut at Huntingdon last April.

Since, Nothinelsematters has finished fourth and fifth over hurdles, in respective races, having unsuccessfully been tried over fences. At this level, from his current rating, over this intermediate trip over hurdles, Nothinelsematters should be able to put in a competitive effort and be good enough to make the frame.

The seven-year-old possesses ability, but doesn't appear the most straightforward individual, therefore, does need plenty to go his way and must settle and get into a rhythm early on.

If on a going day, the son of Sageburg, who will be partnered by Kielan Woods, has the talent to record a first career success in this contest.


20:00 Wolverhampton - Back Lihou E/W @ 20/121.00

Course winner Lihou is now 3lb below his last winning mark on a rating of 66 from which he should be competitive.

The experienced veteran stayed on to finish third at Southwell when last seen, showing significant improvement on his recent outing here. He was hampered after a couple of furlongs when last seen at this track, which appeared to knock his rhythm, and the effort can be forgiven on that basis.

Whilst he has struggled for consistency of late, the nine-year-old remains capable of posing a threat on a going day, having put in competitive efforts from a much higher mark last year, including when third from a rating of 78 at Chelmsford in March.

It would be no surprise to see Lihou make the frame at a price under George Downing, a jockey who has been riding well so far this year. At odds of 20/121.00, Lihou warrants each-way consideration for David Evans.


Now read more horse racing previews here!



Recommended bets

GET £50 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £50 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Katie Midwinter avatar

Katie Midwinter

Katie Midwinter is a horse racing enthusiast and regular tipster on betting.betfair.com

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.